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September PCE hot, Q3 GDP 3.4%

The morning's main event was the US data dump. Headline PCE rose 0.5% in September, in line with forecasts and up from 0.3% in August, taking the twelve-month rate to 3.6% from 3.4%. Investing.com attributes a chunk of that to a 9.2% monthly jump in gasoline and other energy prices, which it ties to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Core PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. Third-quarter GDP came in at 3.4% annualised, up from 2.2% in Q2 and above the 3.2% consensus. The same piece notes that despite Wednesday's hold, markets have been positioned for a hike at the December 8-9 meeting, and that this data keeps that expectation alive.

Timiraos on the composition of core

Nick Timiraos broke the core number down further: core PCE was 0.32% on the month, with the 6-month annualised rate at 2.9% and the 3-month at 2.9%, up from 2.2% in August. Core services ex-housing rose 0.37%, lifting its twelve-month change to 3.6%, which he says matches the highest reading since 2024. Core goods were firm at 0.20% and now run at 2% year-over-year, versus outright declines in 2024. His point is arithmetic rather than directional: if goods keep rising at this pace, more services disinflation is needed to get back to 2%.

Fed held at 4.00%, Warsh in the chair

The FOMC left the funds rate at 4.00%, matching both consensus and the previous level. Headlines around the decision describe a hawkish tint from Chairman Kevin Warsh, with two officials said to have favoured a hike, and Warsh pushing back on the idea that the AI boom makes the economy insensitive to rates ("interest rates get in the cracks"). Javier Blas summarises Warsh's description of the economy: first-half GDP revised up to 2.4%, Q3 tracking north of 3%, double-digit business investment gains, jobless claims near historic lows. Separate headlines flag Warsh announcing changes to how future FOMC meetings run, balance sheet discussion slated for early next year, and his statement that politics played no role in the decision. A Polymarket line prices no 2026 Fed cuts at 97%.

Claims streak and gold under pressure

Initial jobless claims were 194,000 for the week ending October 24, better than the 198,000 expected and the sixth straight week below 200,000, the longest such run since January 2023. Kitco frames this as the problem for gold: a steady labour market gives the Fed room to hike in December. Spot gold was at $4,024.30, down 1% on the day, holding above $4,000 but with no buying interest since late Wednesday. There is a very large volume of gold technical-setup posts in the list, headline-only, clustered around the $4,025-$4,080 range.

ECB holds, Lagarde resigns

The ECB left all three rates unchanged as expected: deposit facility 2.50%, main refi 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%. The statement said energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, while underlying inflation has remained broadly stable with no significant wage response to the energy shock so far. It also noted financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting, which Investing.com reads as a possible nod to the recent surge in government bond yields. Policy stays data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting with no committed path. The euro fell 0.31% to $1.1118 after the decision. Separately, Christine Lagarde announced she will resign the presidency on February 7, 2027, eight months before her term ends. Macron said the succession must be prepared in an orderly and balanced way with European partners and thanked her for her tenure.

Bank of Canada hikes, Hong Kong tracks the Fed

The Bank of Canada raised to 2.50% from 2.25%, in line with consensus and, per the headline, its first hike in three years on inflation concerns. The Canadian dollar held its gains afterwards. Hong Kong's monetary authority left its base rate at 4.25%, following the Fed. Headlines also flag a hawkish hold expected from the BoJ and an RBNZ decision with consensus at 3.00% versus 2.75% previously.

Quieter data and the calendar entries

Elsewhere in the data: US goods trade deficit widened to $134.90B against $130.40B expected; wholesale inventories 0.6%; mortgage applications rose 3.4% with the 30-year rate at 7.37%; EIA crude inventories drew 1.892M against an expected small build, while gasoline stocks built 3.870M versus an expected draw. Russia's figures were broadly steady to slightly better than forecast, India's industrial production missed at 6.7% versus 7.2%, and Swiss ZEW expectations dropped to -15.3 from 2.6. Worth noting: the Nasdaq economic calendar items read in full, including the Fed decision, FOMC statement, Japan JGB auction, Australian trade prices and the New Zealand confidence surveys, returned only page boilerplate with no content beyond the figures already in the headline lines.

Fed holds at 3.75-4.00% with two dissents for a hike

The FOMC left the policy rate at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland's Beth Hammack both dissenting in favour of a 25bp increase. Cook's vote was flagged as a surprise. The statement said inflation remains elevated and that "the accumulation of more information will help the committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the committee's 2% goal." So this was a hold with the hiking door left open, not a pause with a dovish tilt.

Warsh press conference, the substance

Warsh's line was that economic activity is pointing in the right direction but inflation is too high, that the Fed's responsibility is to get it down, and that there is "no soft inflation target; there is no implicit target; there is only price stability." He acknowledged much of the inflation is energy-related and driven by geopolitical factors, said the Fed is not tolerating an inflation target above 2%, and said politics, including the midterms, played no role in the decision. A separate headline has him saying the economy is not running too hot. On the balance sheet, which Reuters covered in full, Warsh said the task force studying how the Fed uses its bond, cash and other holdings is "working away and comparing their best thoughts" and will likely feed recommendations into the FOMC early in the first quarter, though he called it unlikely to have any material effect on policymaking right now. Context from that piece: holdings went from under $1 trillion pre-2008 to roughly $9 trillion by summer 2022 and are now around $6.8 trillion via runoff, with the Fed finding it cannot shrink much further without money market volatility. Warsh, a long-standing critic of large-scale asset purchases, believes they distort markets, a view others inside and outside the Fed dispute. Further reduction would need changes to the short-rate toolkit and regulatory changes letting banks hold less emergency cash.

Calendar overhaul announced for 2027-28

Warsh also announced a change to the meeting structure. Eight meetings remain the right number per year, but starting next fall one 2027 meeting will have no vote on the policy rate and no statement, focusing instead on strategy. In 2028 two of the eight will be strategy meetings, leaving six policy-setting meetings. Timiraos noted those strategy meetings will not be "live."

Street now leaning toward a December hike

A cluster of sell-side calls points the same direction. Goldman Sachs Asset Management's fixed-income CIO Kay Haigh expects the Fed to resume hiking in December. Gundlach's base case is also a December hike. UBS sees two more hikes by mid-2027 while still looking for the S&P 500 at 8,400 by June, and noted Kalshi had priced a 95% chance of no change today. Cutting the other way, Goldman strategist Vickie Chang expects only one more hike against three priced by markets, which would make this one of the smallest tightening cycles since 1983. Fitch separately warned that global credit risk is deteriorating into 2027 on AI investment uncertainty, high energy prices and tighter financing. Bessent's comment that the Fed is "very attentive to being above the inflation target for a long time" fits the same hawkish backdrop.

Market reaction: yields up, equities barely moved

The 10-year yield was last up 4.11bp at 5.034%, near one-week highs, and short-term rate futures rose after the decision. Equities finished close to flat: Investing.com's quote panel during the session showed the Dow +0.19%, S&P 500 +0.28%, Nasdaq +0.27%, VIX down 3.6% at 16.89, the dollar index roughly unchanged at 101.98 and the 10s-2s spread widening 4.15bp to 31.32. Headlines describe stocks as little changed after a divided Fed, with the Nasdaq and small caps weaker. The dollar had posted a two-week high into the meeting on expectations of hawkish commentary.

Gold round-trips the decision

Kitco had spot gold at $4,039.15, down 0.52%, and at $4,035 right after the 10-2 hold. A TradingView piece walks through the rest: the decision-hour candle ran up to 4,067.7 then down to 4,024.7, closing at 4,033; the press-conference hour closed at 4,075.2, above the 4,060 level that had capped the prior lower-high sequence; the following hour reached 4,082.8 before settling back around 4,069, inside the 4,066-4,074 band that has rejected gold before. The author's framing is that 4,028 has now held three times on a closing basis. Elsewhere, Sucden Financial sees gold at $3,900 and silver at $50 by year-end on Fed tightening, while State Street's Doshi still sees a path to $5,000 despite building downside risk.

Bank of Canada hikes, RBNZ next

The BoC raised its policy rate to 2.50% from 2.25%, in line with consensus, and said another hike is possible. It lifted 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% from 0.7% and 2027 to 2.0% from 1.8%, with inflation forecasts raised more sharply to 2.9% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027, up from 2.5%. The RBNZ decision is on the calendar with consensus at 3.00% against a previous 2.75%, so another hike is expected there. Australia's quarterly CPI is also due, consensus 1.3% against 0.6% prior, trimmed mean 1.0% versus 0.8%, and the monthly indicator 4.20% versus 4.00%. Note that the calendar entries themselves carry only consensus and previous figures, no results.

US data on the tape

Consumer confidence was the standout beat: CB Consumer Confidence came in at 91.7 against 81.2 expected and 84.2 prior. Durable goods orders rose 1.8% versus 2.0% expected, core 0.5% versus 0.6%, and non-defence capital goods ex-air 0.5% against 0.7% expected after a strong 1.6%. New home sales fell 0.6%, much better than the -4.5% expected. Richmond manufacturing stayed at -2, Dallas services turned positive at 4.4 from -0.9, Redbook accelerated to 9.3%, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow edged down to 3.4%. The 5-year auction stopped at 4.708%, down from 5.033% previously. API crude showed a 2.031M draw against expectations of a 0.800M build. Thursday brings GDP, core PCE and jobless claims, which is the next real test of the hike debate.

Elsewhere, headline only

A few other items are headline-level only: UK inflation is forecast by Healey to average 3.4% in 2027 and there's a UK Autumn Forecast Statement on the calendar; Lagarde speaks for the ECB; European shares stuttered as bank earnings failed to offset pre-Fed nerves; sterling slipped as AI fears ebbed. The large remainder of this section is TradingView chart posts and routine calendar lines around the Fed, with no additional information behind them.

Fed day, hold expected, Warsh at the podium

The whole section is organised around today's FOMC decision. The calendar entry has consensus at 4.00% against a previous 4.00%, so a hold, and a Kalshi quote cited by DeItaone put 95% on unchanged rates and 6% on a hike. The same post flagged UBS looking for two more Fed hikes by mid-2027 while still seeing the S&P 500 at 8,400 by June. Kitco, relaying Natixis, said the bigger interest is whether July's three dissenters reappear and what the press conference signals for December, and several headlines refer to Kevin Warsh taking that press conference. Investing.com headlines frame the Fed as going into wait-and-see mode and note officials are not aligned on how much weight to give financial conditions. Note that the twenty items marked as full-text reads here are all Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned only site boilerplate, so beyond the scheduled consensus and prior figures in their titles, there is no article text behind them.

US data came in mixed, confidence well above forecast

CB Consumer Confidence was the standout, 91.7 against a 91.7-beating consensus of 81.2 and a prior 84.2. New Home Sales fell 0.6%, much less than the 4.5% drop expected, after a 5.1% gain. Durable goods orders rose 1.8% versus 2.0% expected, with core up 0.5% versus 0.6% and non-defence capital goods ex-air up 0.5% against 0.7% expected. Richmond Manufacturing stayed at -2 against a flat consensus, while Richmond Services ticked to 2 and the Dallas Fed services readings turned positive, Texas Services Outlook 4.0 from -1.8 and Dallas services revenues 4.4 from -0.9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%. House prices firmed slightly, S&P/CS 20-city n.s.a. at 2.7% and FHFA House Price Index 0.3%. Redbook retail sales ran at 9.3% year-on-year, M2 at 23.41 trillion, and the prior MBA 30-year mortgage rate was 7.41%. The 5-year note auction cleared at 4.708%, down sharply from 5.033% previously.

Other central banks mostly leaning tighter

This is a heavy central bank day beyond the Fed. The RBNZ decision carries a 3.00% consensus against a 2.75% prior, and the Bank of Canada a 2.50% consensus against 2.25%, both implying hikes. Australian Q3 inflation quickened, which Investing.com said bolsters the case for an RBA hike, and Governor Bullock warned inflation remains high and that more hikes will be debated. Japan's BoJ core CPI rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. Thailand went the other way, holding at 1% with weak growth and rising inflation risk. Lagarde speaks and the UK delivers its Autumn Forecast Statement.

Europe soft, euro down five days

European readings were weak. Spanish unemployment came in at 10.18% against 9.90% expected and 9.87% prior, French consumer confidence dropped to 80 from 85 with 85 expected, and German GfK consumer climate was forecast at -30.1, with a separate survey headline attributing the slip to inflation fears. Euro zone money and credit were unchanged at consensus, M3 3.5% and private sector loans 3.1%. The euro has now fallen five sessions running into the Fed and ECB, and European shares stuttered as bank earnings failed to offset pre-Fed caution. UK five-year gilts auctioned at 5.036%, up from 4.945%, while the German two-year Schatz came at 3.080% versus 3.100%.

Cross-asset tone into the open

Asian equities rallied on SK Hynix earnings feeding the AI trade, US futures were flat with the Fed and megacap tech earnings ahead, and the dollar held its gains. Treasury yields nudged toward one-week highs. The IBD live blog has the Dow falling ahead of the decision, with Warsh comments noted and Robinhood plunging. Gold is steady above $4,000 with traders waiting on the Fed and PCE, silver lower, bitcoin around $81,000 to $82,000. The gold commentary is split: Kitco carried State Street's Doshi saying downside risks are building but a path to $5,000 remains, and CPM Group's Christian arguing gold and silver may be near a bottom despite pressure. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.

Oil inventories

API crude stocks drew 2.031 million barrels against an expected 0.800 million build, after a 4.930 million draw the week before. The EIA consensus for today is a 0.300 million draw.

The rest

Most of what remains is retail chart commentary on TradingView covering gold, EURUSD, USDJPY, bitcoin, SPY and index levels around the FOMC, plus routine calendar entries for Russia, India, Hong Kong and Italy with no released figures attached. Nothing there adds to the picture above.

Fed decision is the whole day

The one event that matters before the open is Wednesday's FOMC. Investing.com's calendar preview has the rate decision at 1:00 PM ET with the statement, forecast 4.00% against a previous 4.00%, and the press conference at 1:30 PM ET, though the Fed's own account posted that Chairman Warsh hosts the live press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Nothing in the material resolves that time difference, so treat both as flagged. The same preview lists the EIA crude inventory set at 9:30 AM ET, with crude forecast at a 0.300M draw after a 3.060M draw last week, plus MBA mortgage data at 6:00 AM (prior week's applications -5.3%, 30-year rate 7.41%), wholesale inventories and the goods trade balance at 7:30 AM (forecast -$130.40B versus -$132.07B), and Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 9:00 AM. A tastyfx note frames the Fed as expected to hold at 3.75%-4.00% while keeping a December hike live. Headline-only items from Goldman Sachs and Deltaone point the same way: Goldman expects a skip in October and a 25bp hike in December, with Kalshi quoted at a 93% chance of an October hold. A Nick Timiraos headline flags two running debates, where to set rates and how much officials should say, with Warsh saying less than his colleagues.

Inflation is still the problem

Truflation expects September PCE, out Thursday the day after the Fed, to accelerate to 3.6% annualized from 3.4%, with core at 3.1% from 3.0%. It pins the move on energy and tariffs rather than a broad demand resurgence, but warns that input costs passing into producer prices and services raise the risk of persistence. September CPI already came in at 3.7% against 3.4% in August and 3.6% expected. Truflation's line is blunt about the limits here: tightening can temper demand and second-round effects but cannot add energy supply or reverse tariffs. CME FedWatch is cited at roughly three-in-four odds of a December hike. A Reuters poll of more than 500 economists says the same thing globally, with 2027 inflation forecasts raised for 31 of 50 economies and growth forecasts raised for 23. Janet Henry at HSBC said she is getting much more concerned about inflation again. Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter noted energy pass-through showing up in core measures while activity stays resilient on the AI capex cycle. Cumulative three-quarter revisions to 2027 inflation: UK up 0.7pp, euro zone 0.5pp, US only 0.2pp, India 0.4pp, Brazil 0.5pp. Global growth was upgraded to 3.0% this year and 3.2% next, US to 2.3% and 2.1%.

Oil above $100 as the common driver

Crude is the thread running through all of it. The Reuters piece notes prices have held above $100 since October 7, hit a six-month high over $117 last week, and are up more than 60% since the US-Israeli war with Iran began roughly eight months ago. WTI was quoted at 100.18, Brent at 109.79. Headline-only items add that oil easing on Monday and Tuesday was the stated support for stocks and for a gold rebound, that Hormuz uncertainty is keeping prices elevated, and that Red Sea traffic has recovered to 65% of normal from 50% in September per Bank of America, with tanker rates still up to $650,000 a day. A TradingView post by timwest argues that crude deflated by CPI is unchanged since 1983 and blames policy and taxes for gasoline costs. That's commentary, not data.

Yields, auctions and the dollar

The US curve quoted in Investing.com's page sidebar: 10Y 4.994 up 0.24%, 2Y 4.741 up 0.64%, 5Y 4.846, 30Y 5.313, with the 10-2 spread at 31.32bp, up 15%. Tuesday's 2-year note auction stopped at 4.708% against 4.787% prior, and the 3-month and 6-month bills both came slightly cheaper than last time at 4.050% and 4.210%. The dollar index sat at 102.212. Two Nasdaq headlines say the dollar posted a one-week and then a 1.5-week high, the latter attributed to expectations for hawkish FOMC commentary and the former to positive US economic data. Supporting that: the Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 13.4 against 8.8 consensus and 9.8 prior, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at +0.07 versus -0.10 expected and -0.08 prior.

Equities into megacap earnings

US stocks closed Tuesday higher, with the S&P 500 at 7,722.67 up 0.60%, the Nasdaq at 26,477.81 up 1.18%, the Dow roughly flat at 52,378.40, and VIX down 4.79% to 17.51. Nikkei was up 1.73%. The FTSE 100 was the laggard at -0.75%, with headlines attributing it to HSBC, which was quoted down 5.42%, alongside budget and Fed caution. Big Tech earnings from Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are the next scheduled catalyst per IBD headlines. On Tesla, which was quoted up 4.06% at 407.50, The Transcript relayed the CFO saying automotive gross margins excluding credits rose sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%, driven by a higher mix of APAC deliveries, with commodity prices and interest rate changes still adding cost and vehicle financing programs adjusted to partially offset.

Gold's pre-Fed break and bitcoin

Gold left the 3,976-4,030 range it had been stuck in, trading around 4,060 and up about 1% on the day, with a high of 4,064.9 and a low of 3,989, per Forexupgo. The next zone flagged is 4,066-4,074, the support that held twice this month before breaking last Thursday, with TD Securities cited as putting trend-follower short-covering around 4,092. Price is still below the 21-day MA near 4,128 and the 50-day near 4,289, and the lower highs since August are intact. Gold futures in the Investing.com sidebar were 4,073.35, essentially flat. Strifor's piece frames $4,000 as the pivot, citing high real yields and restrictive Fed policy as the drag. Bitcoin is the other side of the same trade: one headline has it dipping below $80k with Strategy pausing purchases and Fed caution weighing, while the gold post describes it back above 80K in a risk-on afternoon.

Other central banks and overseas data

The RBNZ is widely expected to raise the OCR 25bp to 3.00% after Q3 inflation at 3.7%, above the 1-3% target band, with core sticky and energy costs expected to push headline higher. NZD/USD gained about 0.25% toward 0.5700 ahead of it, running into resistance there, with the 100- and 200-day averages still overhead around 0.5760-0.5790. Headline-only items have the Bank of Canada expected to hike Wednesday to stem energy inflation spillover, Pakistan's central bank already at 12%, Japan's trend inflation index at a three-year high strengthening the BOJ hike case, and UK shop price inflation at a 2.5-year high with the BRC index consensus at 1.6% versus 1.4%. German Ifo came in at 90.2 against 90.0 expected, with business expectations beating at 91.6 versus 90.0 but current assessment missing at 88.8 versus 89.9. Spanish PPI jumped to 18.3% from 13.2%. The UK CBI distributive trades survey at -10 was far better than the -47 consensus and -55 prior. South Korean consumer confidence slipped to 105.4 from 106.6, and Brazil's FDI came in at $11.29B against $6.50B expected.

Noise in the list

A large share of the 200 items are TradingView chart posts on gold, SPX, DXY and crypto level-watching ahead of the Fed, plus duplicated Nasdaq calendar entries where the full page text was empty boilerplate and the figure is only in the headline. None of them add anything beyond what is above.

Fed week, with the argument already about December

The backdrop into the open is a two-day FOMC that starts today, and the consensus in the material is that nothing happens at this one. Goldman Sachs expects a hold this week followed by a 25 basis point hike in December, and Kalshi traders are quoted at a 93% chance of an October hold against 6% for a hike. Headline items repeat the same framing: a hold is priced, the fight is over December, and Chair Kevin Warsh has to explain a pause while inflation stays sticky. Nick Timiraos frames a second debate running alongside it, over how much Fed officials should say about the path ahead, noting Warsh has deliberately said less while his colleagues are speaking about as much as they did a year ago. The ECB follows on October 29, and the Bank of Canada is expected on Wednesday, where a headline says the move anticipated is a hike to contain energy-driven inflation.

Yields near 5%, dollar at a one-week high

Treasuries sold off modestly after the morning's US data. Per the Walter Bloomberg feed, the 30-year was last flat at 5.304% and the 10-year up 0.86 basis points at 4.995%. Bill and note auctions cleared slightly cheaper than the prior round in yield terms: the 2-year note at 4.708% against 4.787% previously, the 6-month bill at 4.210% versus 4.220%, and the 3-month at 4.050% versus 4.095%. The dollar is at a one-week high on positive US economic reports, per a Nasdaq headline, and a separate headline notes Asian currencies mixed with the yen retreating ahead of the decision. A five-year note auction lands today, flagged in the Trade Nation note as a gauge of appetite for US paper.

US data firmer than expected

The two US regional and national readings in the list both beat. The Dallas Fed manufacturing business index came in at 13.4 against consensus 8.8 and a prior 9.8, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at +0.07 versus consensus -0.10 and prior -0.08. A Walter Bloomberg summary of the Chicago Fed print says production strengthened while employment was flat and consumer spending and housing weakened, putting growth slightly above historical trend. Still to come today, per the Trade Nation preview: Conference Board consumer confidence, September durable goods orders, new home sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Dallas Fed services, plus French consumer confidence, eurozone M3 and the ECB bank lending survey in Europe.

Equities into a heavy earnings week

Investor's Business Daily has Dow futures up 0.3% and S&P 500 futures up 0.3% ahead of Tuesday's open, with Boeing an early earnings loser; a related IBD line describes mixed Q3 results with record backlog and revenue clearing views. Separate headlines attribute the futures bid to oil pulling back and to Anthropic IPO buzz lifting tech. The SPX500 technical note puts the index around 7,710 inside a range bounded by 7,601 to 7,613 support and 7,813 to 7,830 resistance, and makes the fundamental case that this week is a stress test: more than 40% of S&P 500 companies report, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon carry roughly $1.7 trillion in combined backlog and could spend about $600 billion this year on AI infrastructure per Reuters, and Brent above $110 feeds back into inflation and discount rates. On the sell-side commentary, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson sees near-term S&P downside of 7,100 to 7,200 with a year-end base case of 8,000 and a post-election rebound, while Ed Yardeni is quoted treating selloffs as buying opportunities. Goldman Sachs appears twice on the other side of the ledger, warning that higher energy prices, rising bond yields and slowing AI investment are building downside risks into 2027, and separately that the AI buildout itself adds to inflation pressure.

Gold pinned at $4,000

Gold is the busiest single name in the section and the story is consistent across contributors: it is sitting just around $4,000, weighed down by a firmer dollar and high Treasury yields ahead of the Fed. One contributor frames the weakness specifically as a real yields problem, taking the 10-year less expected inflation as the proxy, and says he sees no reason to build a position while real yields rise, watching the $4,000 to $3,700 zone for a turn. Another has 4031 as the pivot, with a break above opening 4048 then 4064 and a failure pointing back to 4000, then 3985 and 3960, and adds that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have continued talks with Iranian officials, which keeps de-escalation headlines live as a catalyst. Kitco's feed notes gold rebounded above $4,000 on Monday as falling crude eased inflation concerns, and flags that on October 22 the usual supports all lined up and December gold still fell $90.

Bitcoin back under $80k

Bitcoin is below 80,000, trading near 79,750 in the Capital-Insights note after two failures near 87,400 in September and October. The Fear and Greed index is at 42, and stablecoin dominance has broken above its falling wedge at 6.88%, which that author reads as money moving to the sidelines, with 7.17% the level he is watching. A separate headline attributes the dip below $80k to Strategy pausing its buying and Fed caution. The named risk in both is Wednesday's decision.

Euro, sterling and European data

EURUSD is heavy into the back-to-back Fed and ECB, trading near 1.1147 against 1.11550 support, below its 9-EMA at 1.11740, 50-SMA at 1.12143 and 200-period averages around 1.13048 to 1.13228, with RSI at 30.91 and MACD below zero. Trade Nation marks resistance at 1.1216, 1.1250 and 1.1295 and support at 1.1126, 1.1090 and 1.1060. A third contributor's timing model argues for a rising phase into the back half of the week, so the views on the pair are not unanimous. On the data, German Ifo beat at 90.2 versus 90.0 with business expectations well above consensus at 91.6, but current assessment missed at 88.8 against 89.9. The UK CBI distributive trades survey came in dramatically better than feared at -10 versus consensus -47 and a prior -55, while a headline says shop price inflation hit a 2.5-year high. An ECB survey reported by Investing.com shows euro zone firms finding credit harder to get, and French yields are retreating from 2002 highs after Moody's held. Spanish PPI jumped to 18.3% from 13.2%. The FTSE was lower on HSBC's slide plus budget and Fed caution.

Asia and emerging market prints

South Korea consumer confidence slipped to 105.4 from 106.6, with GDP consensus at 0.7% against 0.6% prior. Japan's leading index came in at 0.4% as expected, down from 1.5%, the coincident indicator at -1.8%, and a headline reports the trend inflation index hitting a three-year high, described as strengthening the case for a BOJ hike. Singapore industrial production slowed sharply to 3.4% from 15.4%. Brazil's foreign direct investment came in well above forecast at $11.29 billion versus $6.50 billion expected, with the current account at -$5.10 billion, roughly in line. Pakistan's central bank raised its key rate to 12% on inflation, and Turkey's unemployment rose to 8.4% in September.

Fed week, hold expected Wednesday

The dominant story is Wednesday's FOMC decision, and the Investing.com preview (carried twice, in the UK and US feeds) lays out the setup: the Fed is expected to hold at 4.00% on Oct 28, with fed funds futures pricing roughly a 9-10% chance of a hike this week and about 84-87% by December. Goldman Sachs expects a hold now and a 25bp hike in December, arguing the committee has settled into hiking every other meeting, which sets a high bar for deviating before year-end. Goldman doesn't expect much new from the press conference and is mainly watching whether the statement softens the language about the September hike, possibly borrowing from Vice Chair Jefferson's recent speech. One analyst quoted argues the committee should hike now but won't, with the midterms so close. Futures imply about 2.7 hikes over the next twelve months and peak just above 4.5%, which Goldman calls more hawkish than its own forecast. Chair Warsh's tone at 2:30pm is the piece most people will trade.

The week's data calendar

From the same preview: Tuesday brings durable goods for September (forecast 1.8% versus 0.0% prior), CB consumer confidence (80.5 versus 81.9) and new home sales (649K versus 684K, with 30-year mortgage rates at 7.41%). Thursday is arguably the bigger day — September core PCE is seen at 3.1% year-on-year against 3.0% prior, headline PCE at 3.6% versus 3.4%, Q3 GDP around 3.0-3.2% against 2.2%, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.5%, and jobless claims at 198K versus 194K. Friday has the employment cost index (0.8% versus 0.9%) and Daly speaking at noon, the first post-meeting Fed voice. The article frames it simply: hot PCE plus strong GDP pushes December toward certainty and opens the March debate, with yields and the dollar higher; a cooler print leaves the every-other-meeting plan intact. Goldman names oil, tied to Iran conflict risk, as the biggest inflation risk.

Monday's closing tape

Per the quote tables embedded in those articles, the US session closed higher ahead of the Fed: S&P 500 7,676.85 up 0.70%, Nasdaq 26,169.38 up 0.83%, Dow 52,361.58 up 0.28%, and the VIX down 5.45% to 18.39. The curve steepened at the front, with the 2-year at 4.722% up 4bp and the 10-year unchanged at 4.986%, putting the 10-2 spread at 31bp. Dollar index 101.85, up 0.05%. Crude was softer, WTI 101.28 down 0.47% and Brent 110.20 down 0.49%, with gold futures at 4,030.95 off 0.18% and silver 54.03 down 0.57%. Europe was firm, FTSE 100 up 0.72% and DAX up 1.03%, while the Nikkei fell 0.80%.

Goldman on AI buildout and inflation

Separately, Goldman published analysis Monday arguing AI infrastructure spending is adding to inflation in developed markets, though temporarily and unevenly. Direct pressure outside the US is currently around 0.1 percentage points. Memory prices are contributing 19 basis points to US core PCE. Goldman sees AI-linked price pressure adding roughly 19bp to year-on-year core inflation in non-US developed markets by Q1 2027, against a peak boost of 50bp for US core PCE and 20bp for US core CPI, with non-US inflation rising as costs pass through to consumer electronics, which carry bigger index weights abroad. On activity the effect is modest: about 0.3% added to developed-market GDP through end-2026, Australia largest at 0.6%, Euro Area 0.2%, UK 0.1%, because data centre input production is concentrated among Asian exporters. Average core inflation boost of 25bp through Q1 2027, up to 33bp versus long-run trend, Japan 0.3pp and the UK 0.2pp. Goldman expects these pressures to fade through 2027 as memory prices ease.

Earnings collide with the Fed

Both Fed previews flag the timing problem: Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the decision, Amazon, Intel and SanDisk on Thursday. The stated concern is that a hawkish Fed plus heavy capex guidance could pressure large-cap tech together, with one cited analysis asking whether big spending plans require equity issuance and fewer buybacks. A TradingView note on Nasdaq futures said the contract was up about 1.2% around 29,465, reclaiming the 29,230 floor it broke last Thursday, attributing the bounce to easing oil (WTI down over 2% that morning) and tech leadership; the author notes the broader structure is still lower highs from 31,616 on 5 Oct to 30,113 on 20 Oct, with the 50-day near 30,000 and the 21-day near 30,400 both above price. That piece puts hold odds at roughly 90% on a 3.75-4% band, slightly different framing from the Investing.com 4.00% figure.

Gold ahead of the decision

Gold dominates the retail-analysis flow, and the views are split. One TradingView author notes XAUUSD is holding above prior support at $3,940-3,960 despite weeks of bearish momentum, and points to a possible divergence with the dollar index, which has broken to a new high but may be sweeping liquidity rather than genuinely breaking out; he leans bullish on that resilience plus seasonal Indian festival demand, while conceding there's no confirmation. Another, the KOG report, says volume isn't there to break the range with FOMC coming. A third opened a short and closed it manually, calling the price action "trappy." Headline-only items around gold run both ways: Kitco reports spot gold and silver higher in early US trade Monday as falling crude eased inflation concerns, with gold rebounding above $4,000, while other headlines flag the break below $4,000, Jeffrey Christian discussing silver under $55, and a Kitco survey showing Wall Street doubting near-term strength.

Other central banks

Headline-only, but worth knowing before the open: the Bank of Canada is expected to hike Wednesday to stem energy-inflation spillover, Pakistan's central bank raised its key rate to 12%, an ECB survey shows euro zone firms finding credit harder to get, and French yields retreated from 2002 highs after Moody's held the rating. The ECB meets this week too. Yen headlines have USDJPY steady ahead of the BOJ with 157.70 capping.

Data already out

Michigan sentiment for the final October read came in at 48.0 against 46.3 consensus and 48.1 prior, with current conditions sharply weaker at 46.7 versus 50.9 and expectations better at 48.8 versus 46.3; one-year inflation expectations 4.7%, five-year 3.5%, both a tick above the prior month. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 from -0.08, with production stronger, employment flat and consumer spending and housing weaker. Treasury Secretary Bessent posted that 72,000 manufacturing jobs have been added so far in 2026 after more than 200,000 lost in the prior administration's final two years, and that blue-collar manufacturing weekly wages are up 3.5% in real terms since the president took office.

Sell-side positioning notes

Three strategist headlines, each with figures attached. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson expects the equity correction to end as risks including the midterms clear, with near-term downside of 7,100-7,200 and a year-end base case of 8,000 on the S&P 500. Ed Yardeni stays bullish on US equities and treats selloffs as buying opportunities, citing earnings and fundamentals, with geopolitics, Fed hikes and the midterms as risks. Goldman separately warns global growth risks are building into 2027 from higher energy prices, rising bond yields and slowing AI investment. Bank of America reports Red Sea shipping traffic back to 65% of normal from 50% in September, with oil tanker rates still as high as $650,000 a day and dry bulk up 31% year-over-year.

Calendar entries with no content behind them

A large block of this section is Nasdaq economic calendar entries. The ones opened in full returned only site boilerplate, no data, so what you have is what the headline carries: China industrial profits YTD prior 15.7%, UK BRC shop price index consensus 1.6% versus 1.4%, Japan CSPI unchanged at 3.7%, South Korea GDP 0.7% versus 0.6% and consumer confidence prior 106.6, plus an RBA speech from Assistant Governor Jones. The German Ifo (consensus 90.0 versus 89.9), UK CBI distributive trades (-47 versus -55), and a long run of CFTC positioning lines are headline-only. Of those, speculative gold net longs fell to 199.9K from 207.9K, crude to 89.3K from 100.3K, copper to 57.4K from 68.5K, and S&P 500 net shorts widened slightly to -142.7K. The remainder of the section is retail chart commentary on gold, bitcoin, EURUSD and the indices, most of it waiting on Wednesday rather than saying anything new.