News and price dashboard

Warsh pushes back and hike odds collapse

The dominant macro story is the repricing of October. Hot inflation data earlier in the week had pushed odds of a Fed hike up, but after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke, one item reports hike odds crashing from 55% to 13%, with Kalshi putting the probability of a hold at 86%, up from 50%, even with inflation at 3.7%. Nick Timiraos notes that five Fed officials in two weeks had hit some version of the "no urgency" theme, including right before and after CPI, and that Warsh said of giving market-guiding hints, "We're not in that business." Warsh also told the IMF audience he still carries "a little bit of scar tissue" from the financial crisis, adding "better over-scarred than under-scarred," and separately said AI will "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts. Two separate headlines tie dollar weakness to this: one to reduced Fed hike chances this month, one to Powell refraining from forward guidance. A Polymarket line on 12 or more Fed cuts in 2026 sits at No 100%. These are headline-only items, so treat the odds figures as reported rather than explained.

US data: output beats, trade prices hot, consumer soft

September industrial production rose 0.7% against a 0.4% forecast, with manufacturing +0.3% in line, utilities +3.5%, mining +0.2%, and capacity utilization 76.9% versus 76.5% expected. Trade prices ran well above forecast: import prices +1.1% (consensus around 0.9%) and export prices +2.2% versus 1.0%, with import prices up 8.1% year on year. Against that, the consumer side was softer, retail control +0.1% versus 0.3% expected after 1.2%, and retail sales ex gas and autos +0.2% after 1.1%. Business inventories +0.4% in line, retail inventories ex auto flat. The federal budget balance came in at -27.0B, better than the -34.7B consensus and far better than the prior -167.0B. Atlanta Fed GDPNow is unchanged at 3.6%. A NY Fed service sector survey headline flags notable price pressures.

TIC flows swing hard positive

The TIC data was the biggest surprise on the calendar. Net long-term transactions came in at 279.2B against a 75.2B consensus and -27.9B prior, overall net capital flow at 199.8B versus 87.4B, and foreign buying of Treasury bonds at 108.9B after -3.6B. These were among the items read in full, but the source pages are Nasdaq calendar boilerplate with no commentary, so the numbers above are all the substance there is. No explanation is given for the swing.

CFTC positioning: dollar shorts against everything

The weekly CFTC figures show speculators extending bets against most non-dollar currencies: EUR net short widened to -137.6K from -99.3K, AUD to -117.3K from -98.6K, GBP to -107.0K from -97.6K, CAD to -94.8K from -90.2K, NZD to -47.0K from -29.3K. Yen longs were trimmed to 50.2K from 62.3K, CHF shorts narrowed slightly to -22.1K, BRL longs cut to 46.7K. On equities, S&P 500 net shorts were reduced to -141.0K from -154.1K while Nasdaq 100 longs were cut to 48.5K from 58.1K. Commodities were mostly static, gold 207.9K from 210.3K, silver 22.6K, crude 100.3K, natural gas still heavily short at -233.6K, with corn the standout, longs cut to 358.4K from 452.5K.

Europe inflation reaccelerates, ECB seen hiking again

Euro zone CPI jumped to 3.8% from 3.2%, matching consensus, with core at 2.5% and HICP ex energy and food at 2.2%. Italy's HICP came in at 4.2%, a touch above the 4.1% expected and up from 3.2%. The euro zone trade balance flipped to -16.1B from +10.7B. Three separate headlines say the IMF expects at least one more 25bp ECB hike in 2026, and Lagarde is reported as saying the bond selloff will itself slow inflation. Nagel speaks today. So the European backdrop is tightening-leaning while US expectations just moved the other way.

Japan: Ueda keeps hiking on the table

Ueda reaffirmed the BOJ will keep raising rates as underlying inflation approaches 2%, saying conditions remain broadly in line with forecasts. Two further headlines, one from the IMF, say the BOJ may need to tighten faster if inflation beats forecast, and that the global inflation debate has put the BOJ's pace in the spotlight.

Energy: big crude draw, OPEC output up

US crude inventories drew 8.557M against an expected 0.2M build, while gasoline built 3.518M versus an expected 0.5M draw and distillates drew 2.527M. Cushing built 1.862M, refinery utilization +0.8%. Natural gas storage added 67B versus 76B expected. OPEC production figures show Saudi Arabia at 8.20M barrels from 7.00M and Iraq at 4.10M from 3.20M, offset partly by Kuwait down to 1.77M from 1.99M, Libya 1.28M from 1.33M and Iran 1.75M from 1.85M. Baker Hughes total rig count unchanged at 603, oil rigs 459 from 462.

Gold, the dollar and sterling

Kitco reports spot gold holding near $4,170 with silver modestly higher, supported by a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields on the week, though it frames December Fed tightening as still in play. A separate Kitco item notes inflation printing 3.7% and gold falling as much as $80 on that, and another says bitcoin is starting to behave more like gold as investors look for alternative hedges. Sterling hit a three-week high, with one headline attributing the move to BOE hike bets meeting a softer dollar. Short-bill auctions nudged higher, 8-week at 4.050% from 3.980% and 4-week at 4.000%.

Canada and the loonie

Canadian data was mixed: housing starts 248.9K against 234.0K expected, manufacturing sales +1.5% versus +1.1%, capacity utilization 81.9% from 80.7%, but wholesale sales -1.6% and foreign securities purchases -17.31B against a 23.59B consensus. CIBC warns of inflation risks from what it calls a "leaky loonie" facing further slide. Macklem speaks today.

One cautionary note and the chart chatter

BofA's Michael Hartnett expects investors to cut risk over the next three to four weeks, citing 3% real yields, persistent inflation, AI valuation concerns and US midterm uncertainty. Related in theme, two TradingView pieces look at AI infrastructure debt against rising rates, one on IREN and one on CoreWeave and Treasury yields. The rest of the section is a long tail of TradingView chart setups, mostly gold around the $4,165 to $4,200 area plus DXY, SPY and crypto levels, which are individual traders' technical views rather than news.

The week's inflation data and what it did to the Fed trade

The one piece of real substance here is Investing.com's Fed market review, and it sets the backdrop for everything else. September data came in hot at every stage: CPI 3.7% year-on-year against 3.6% expected, core CPI 0.3% month-on-month against 0.2%, PPI 1.3% against a 0.6% forecast and core PPI 0.7% against 0.3%. Retail sales headline beat at 0.8% versus 0.3%, but the control group that feeds GDP came in at just 0.1% against 0.3% expected, which the piece reads as prices doing the work rather than demand. Philly Fed missed at 20.9 versus 28.2, industrial production beat at 0.7% versus 0.4%, and jobless claims landed in line at 199K. The reaction was a 12bp jump in the 2-year and 7bp in the 10-year, with October hike odds hitting about 45% right after the data before long yields reversed. Flows were already defensive before any of this: in the week to Oct 7, US equity funds lost $5.11B while bond funds took in $19.78B and money market funds $68.49B, per LSEG Lipper. The FOMC decision is Oct 28 at 2pm ET.

Warsh gives nothing away, hike odds collapse

Fed Chair Warsh spoke and declined to guide. The review quotes him saying "I don't prejudge meetings" while committing to restoring price stability without touching timing, and Williams separately said he sees no hikes in 2027, which pressured the dollar earlier in the week. Several headline-only items point the same way: Timiraos notes five Fed officials hit the "no urgency" theme over two weeks and quotes Warsh saying of market-guiding hints, "We're not in that business"; a DeItaone post says hike odds crashed from 55% to 13% with Kalshi putting a hold at 86%, up from 50%. Separate headlines have Warsh calling the AI investment surge the result of good policy and the most important thing happening in the global economy on the upside, while warning the transition could be bumpy, and saying AI will change how monetary policy is conducted by improving forecasts. Goolsbee reportedly called the inflation picture discouraging but kept some optimism. A Polymarket item on whether 12 or more Fed cuts happen in 2026 shows No at 100%, but the page itself returned no tradable content.

Risk assets as of that snapshot

The same Investing.com page carried a live board worth noting: Nasdaq down 2.15%, S&P 500 down 1.10%, Dow down 0.34%, VIX up 22.84% to 20.22, 10-year at 5.082% and the 30-year at 5.431%. The damage was concentrated in AI and high-beta names, with NBIS down 12.18%, CoreWeave down 11.88%, SMCI down 9.86%, Micron down 5.63% and Meta down 3.72%, while energy led the gainers list, Targa up 4.33%, Diamondback 4.28%, EOG 4.25%. Headlines around it describe the Nasdaq heading for its worst week in over 18 months, BofA's Hartnett expecting investors to cut risk over the next three to four weeks on 3% real yields, sticky inflation, AI valuations and midterm uncertainty, and a separate headline-only piece tying CoreWeave, Treasury yields and AI debt together.

Sterling leads the dollar move

The GBP/USD piece has cable near 1.3330 and heading for a solid weekly gain on two legs. On the UK side, August GDP unexpectedly rose 0.1%, and Bailey said second-round inflation effects from the energy shock remain subdued, though markets still look for a 25bp BOE hike in November with headline inflation above target. On the US side, the 10-year has pulled back sharply from its recent 5.36% peak as investors rotate into bonds on worries about leveraged AI investment, which trims the dollar's yield advantage. Technically the author flags a failed breakdown below 1.3160 and a rebound that is stretched below the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages clustered near 1.3370 to 1.3410. The Oct 28 UK budget is named as the next risk event. The broader UK data behind that, headline-only, was firm: GDP +0.1% against -0.1% expected, manufacturing production +1.2% against -0.1%, index of services +0.9%, trade deficit narrower at -18.01B.

Gold and the precious complex

All headline-only here, so take it as reported levels only. Kitco has gold holding near $4,170 with silver modestly higher on a softer dollar and lower weekly Treasury yields, after gold dropped as much as $82 on the hot CPI print and then erased most of it. An earlier Kitco item has gold approaching $4,170 with silver up 3% on Thursday's bond rally. There is a thick cluster of TradingView chart posts on gold and silver, which are individual traders' setups, not news.

Other central banks

BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the bank will keep raising rates as underlying inflation nears 2%, per a headline-only post, and a Reuters factbox says brokerages expect the next BOJ hike in December with more tightening in 2027. Japanese core inflation likely exceeded the BOJ's target for the first time since December, by another headline. The IMF said it expects the ECB to raise 25bp once more in 2026, carried by three separate items. Euro zone CPI is due with consensus at 3.8% against 3.2% prior and core at 2.5%. Macklem, Rogers, Nagel, Schlegel, Breeden and Woods are all on the speakers list with no content attached.

Second-tier data and positioning

Import prices rose 1.1% against 0.8% expected and export prices 2.2% against 1.0%, with import prices up 8.1% year-on-year, which fits the hot-trade-inflation theme. Empire State came in at 25.50 against 12.10 expected, Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.6%, business inventories 0.4% in line. Canada was mixed, manufacturing sales +1.5% against +1.1% but wholesale sales -1.6%. Energy inventories showed a large crude draw of 8.557M against a 0.2M build expected, gasoline building 3.518M against a draw forecast, distillates -2.527M. The long list of CFTC speculative positioning lines carries previous values only, with no new prints to read.

Calendar items that returned nothing

A large share of this section is Nasdaq economic calendar entries whose pages came back empty, Warsh and Nagel speaking slots, RBNZ offshore holdings, NZ PMI and card sales, Singapore exports, Japan flows, Korea unemployment. The two Korean prints that did carry figures: import price index 17.6% from 15.9%, export price index 40.9% from 42.7%. Fed balance sheet at 6,756B from 6,748B and reserve balances at 3.030T from 3.022T, both marginal.

Fed path repriced hard toward a pause

The dominant macro story is a sharp dovish repricing of the October FOMC. A widely circulated post reports Fed hike odds collapsing from 55% to 13% after Chair Warsh signalled an October pause despite inflation running at 3.7%, with Kalshi putting the odds of a hold at 86%, up from 50%. Warsh himself, per the coverage, gave no hint on the October decision and spent his remarks on the AI investment boom, calling the "massive investment surge" the result of good policy and "probably the most important thing happening in the global economy on the upside," while warning the transition could be bumpy. Against that, two other Fed voices leaned the other way: Cleveland's Beth Hammack, speaking at a Goldman Sachs event, warned that deteriorating inflation expectations could force more aggressive action, and Goolsbee called the inflation picture discouraging while keeping some optimism. Warsh speaks again on today's calendar.

US data: hot producer prices, softening surveys

The data behind that debate is mixed and genuinely hot on the price side. Core PPI came in at 0.7% against 0.3% expected and 0.2% prior, and PPI ex food, energy and transport ran 5.0% year on year versus 4.8%. Core retail sales beat at 0.9% against 0.6%, but retail control missed badly at 0.1% versus 0.3% consensus and 1.2% prior, so the headline strength didn't carry into the GDP-relevant piece. Regional surveys split: Empire State jumped to 25.50 against 12.10 expected, while the Philadelphia Fed index fell to 20.9 against 28.2 consensus and 37.8 prior, with new orders collapsing from 29.2 to 4.3 and prices paid easing from 48.6 to 43.2. The labour market stayed tight, initial claims 199K in line, continuing claims 1,710K in line, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow held at 3.6%. Business inventories 0.4%, in line.

Gold and silver recover, dollar and yields lower

Precious metals snapped back. Kitco reports gold approaching $4,170 and silver up 3% in late Thursday US trade, attributing it to falling Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand after the prior session's inflation-driven selloff. A separate Kitco item notes gold pushing back above $4,100 while still facing inflation-driven hawkish pressure, and flags Block Scholes' view that bitcoin is starting to trade more like gold as a hedge. Gary Wagner's take, as summarised, is that gold dropped as much as $82 on the hot inflation print and erased nearly all of it a day later. Nasdaq's own market wrap headlines the dollar as pressured by lower T-note yields. Goldman's CEO is quoted saying zero rates were the anomaly, not a 5% ten-year.

Euro area inflation and the ECB

Euro zone CPI is the big European print, with consensus at 3.8% against 3.2% prior and core at 2.5% versus 2.4%. The IMF said it expects the ECB to raise rates by 25bp at least once more in 2026, carried by three separate wires. French prints landed soft on the month, CPI and HICP both at -0.3%, though France's inflation ex-tobacco rose to 3.10% from 2.30%. Italian HICP is expected at 2.0% from 0.1%. Swiss PPI undershot at 0.3% versus 0.6%. Spanish auctions cleared higher at the 3-year and 7-year, 3.313% and 3.713%, with the 5-year slightly lower at 3.482%. European stocks were reported gaining with Schneider lifting sentiment ahead of the inflation data. Nagel, Schlegel, Breeden, Bailey, Woods, Macklem and Rogers are all scheduled to speak, and the two BoE speaker lines carry a -1.6% tag.

Japan and the BOJ

BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the bank will keep raising rates as underlying inflation nears 2%, saying conditions are broadly in line with forecasts. A factbox puts brokerages at December for the next hike with further tightening in 2027, and a separate piece says Japanese core inflation likely exceeded the BOJ target for the first time since December. Industrial production was weak at -2.4% against -1.7% expected, with capacity utilisation at -4.2%.

UK, Canada, and other data

UK growth surprised to the upside: GDP 0.1% against -0.1% expected, the 3M/3M tracker 0.7% versus 0.5%, manufacturing production 1.2% against -0.1%, services 0.9%. Construction stayed negative. The trade deficit narrowed to £18.01bn, better than the £21.90bn expected. Sterling hit a three-week high. Canada was mixed, manufacturing sales 1.5% beating 1.1% and capacity utilisation up to 81.9%, but wholesale sales -1.6%. Korea's import price index accelerated to 17.6% from 15.9% while export prices slowed to 40.9% from 42.7%.

Energy inventories

Crude inventories drew 8.557M barrels against consensus for a 0.2M build, following a 3.186M draw. Distillates drew 2.527M versus 1.600M expected, but gasoline built 3.518M against an expected 0.500M draw. Cushing built 1.862M. Natural gas storage came in at 67B versus 76B expected.

Positioning and the risk backdrop

BofA's Michael Hartnett expects investors to cut risk over the next three to four weeks, citing 3% real yields, sticky inflation, AI valuation concerns and US midterm uncertainty. Nasdaq futures were reported edging lower on AI spending and Fed rate concerns. The CFTC positioning lines are prior-week values only: S&P 500 net short 154.1K against Nasdaq 100 net long 58.1K, gold net long 210.3K, crude 99.1K, and broad dollar-positive FX positioning with EUR at -99.3K, AUD -98.6K, GBP -97.6K and CAD -90.2K, JPY the exception at +62.3K.

Note on the full-text items

The twenty items flagged as read in full were all Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned no loaded data, so they add nothing beyond the figures already in their headlines. Everything above is from headline-level detail.

Hot CPI and a much hotter PPI

The backdrop this morning is an inflation shock. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected and 3.4% prior, with the n.s.a. monthly print at 0.59% versus 0.32% before. Then producer prices landed well above forecast: headline PPI +1.3% month over month against +0.6% expected, +6.3% year over year against +5.4%, and core PPI +0.7% monthly, +5.0% annual, both roughly half a point hot. Real earnings fell 0.5% after +0.2%. The Cleveland Fed's CPI measure was steady at 0.2%.

Rate-hike talk, not cut talk

The policy conversation has flipped to hikes. A Factbox from Investing.com says major brokerages now expect the next Fed move to be a hike in December. UBS went further after the CPI print, revising to three hikes in total: September and December 2026 plus March 2027. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management expects 25bp in December and then a hold. Nick Timiraos flagged Wednesday's Fed-speak as the last round before Warsh's appearance tonight and the October blackout, quoting Bowman a few hours ahead of CPI saying she felt no urgency and wanted time to see how things evolve. Goolsbee, Barkin and Bowman all appear on the calendar, and Warsh's "quest for a quiet Fed" is drawing vocal pushback per Investing.com.

Yields fell despite the hot data

Counterintuitively, Treasuries rallied. DeItaone reported 5- and 7-year yields down 15 basis points on the day, and Investing.com has yields sliding after the CPI-driven spike. The dollar retreated with them. Kitco has spot gold and silver solidly higher in early US trade, rebounding from Wednesday's sharp losses, attributing it to falling yields, a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand outweighing the hot PPI. Gold held above $4,100 and was near session highs after both regional surveys.

Regional surveys split

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to 20.9, short of the 28.2 consensus and well below 37.8 prior. The New York Empire State index went the other way, rising to 25.5 against 12.10 expected, though Kitco notes price pressures and the outlook worsened within it. Atlanta Fed GDPNow is unchanged at 3.6%. Mortgage data was soft: applications -2.7%, purchase index down to 139.3, 30-year rate at 7.50%. The US Ipsos consumer sentiment reading dropped to 45.18 from 50.45.

Equities, chips and the AI trade

Investing.com reports the stock market posted its worst day in months on inflation plus a tech selloff, with chipmakers sliding globally and in Europe on rate-hike fears combined with an AI rout. IBD's live coverage has the Dow rising while the Nasdaq tumbles on AI worries, with CoreWeave's borrowing costs and a Gartner outlook cited as rattling AI names. Yardeni Research cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400 on the view that investor caution could compress valuations, while staying bullish on earnings at $425 per share for 2027. Wall Street futures were down ahead of TSMC results. Marsh led an inflation-winners screen after the PPI data.

Crypto followed rates

Bitcoin slid below $81,000 on the CPI print and the resulting hike bets, then reclaimed $80,000 per several TradingView posts, with $82,500 named as the next resistance. TradingView also ran a broader piece on crypto and global markets falling as US inflation fuels Fed fears.

Europe and the rest

French inflation rose to 3.4% in September, the highest since January 2024. A Reuters poll has the BoE raising to 4% in November with economists narrowly expecting a hold after that, and separately analysts said the UK's August growth beat opens the door to higher rates. The 5-year gilt auction cleared at 4.945% versus 4.843% prior; the German 30-year Bund auction came in at 3.800%, down from 3.900%. UniCredit won ECB approval to raise its Commerzbank stake past 30%. DeItaone reports ECB officials growing impatient for Lagarde to clarify her plans, with the World Economic Forum possibly appointing her as chair as early as November 2, which would mean leaving before her term ends in October 2027. BoE's Breeden said banks need a "bare metal" recovery capability given AI risks. The IMF warned Africa's resilience masks rising inflation and fragile buffers.

Asia-Pacific data

Japan's core machinery orders came in at 18.6% against 15.7% expected and 11.2% prior. Australia's jobs report was due with 19.6K employment change expected after 39.5K, unemployment seen steady at 4.6%. Korea's trade balance was expected at 49.85B versus 34.79B. India's September unemployment rate was 5%. Canada building permits surprised at 8.8% against 2.9% expected, after -15.8%.

A note on the full-text items

Twenty items were pulled in full, and all twenty were Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned only site boilerplate, no data at all. Everything above comes from the figures carried in the item lines themselves and from the headline items, not from article bodies. One oddity worth ignoring: the BoE Woods calendar entry carries a -1.7% quote tag, which has no bearing on the event itself.

Hot CPI is the whole backdrop

The September US CPI print is what everything else today is reacting to: headline 3.7% year over year against 3.6% consensus and 3.4% prior, with the non-seasonally-adjusted monthly figure at 0.59% versus 0.32% before. Real earnings came in at -0.5% after +0.2%. The rate response was immediate and hawkish. UBS now expects three Fed hikes in total, September and December 2026 followed by March 2027, having added the March leg specifically because of the hot September inflation data. A separate Investing.com factbox says major brokerages see the next hike in December. One cross-current: Investing.com reports Treasury yields slid back after the initial CPI-driven spike, and the dollar slipped, so the bond move did not simply hold its first direction.

Equities and the AI trade took the hit

Wednesday was described as the stock market's worst day in months, on the combination of inflation and a tech selloff, and the damage continued through the Asian session. KOSPI slumped 7% on the chip rout, with global and European chipmakers sinking as inflation data fed both rate-hike fears and the AI unwind. Investor's Business Daily ties the AI leg specifically to CoreWeave's borrowing costs and a Gartner outlook, and had the Dow rising while the Nasdaq tumbled. Yardeni Research cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, warning that investor caution could compress valuations, while staying bullish on earnings with a 2027 forecast of $425 per share. Bitcoin slid below $81,000 as hike bets firmed. Gold is holding around two-month lows after CPI flushed it to 4,073, though several TradingView pieces note it has since recovered some ground; those are trader notes, not reporting.

What's due today

A heavy US calendar lands at 8:30 ET. Expectations flagged ahead of the release: September PPI +0.6%, core PPI +0.3%, retail sales +0.4% and ex-autos +0.5%. Also on the slate are initial jobless claims (consensus 199K versus 197K prior), continuing claims at 1,710K, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing at 28.2 against 37.8 prior, Empire State at 12.10 versus 7.60, business inventories at 0.4%, and retail control at 0.3% after a strong 1.2%. Later come the Beige Book and the federal budget balance, consensus -29.0B against -167.0B prior. Fed Chair Warsh speaks, as do Goolsbee, Barkin and Bowman. Separately, Investing.com reports pushback against Warsh's effort to run a quieter Fed. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.6%.

Inflation is running hot elsewhere too

It isn't only the US. India's WPI inflation came in at 11.39% against 10.18% expected and 9.92% prior, with fuel at 25.85% and food at 8.14%. French inflation rose to 3.4% in September, the highest since January 2024. Spanish core CPI ticked up to 3.1% from 2.9%, even as monthly CPI cooled to 0.3%. In the UK, a Reuters poll has the BoE raising to 4% in November with economists narrowly expecting a hold thereafter, and Pill said a hike need not be the start of a long series; analysts also said August's growth beat opens the door to higher rates. Lagarde, Schnabel, Elderson, Nagel, Buch, Woods, Breeden and BoC's Rogers all speak today. Breeden separately warned banks need a "bare metal" recovery capability given AI risks.

China credit, Japan orders, oil

China's September credit data beat: total social financing 3,550B against 3,270B expected and 1,660B prior, new loans 1,080B versus 1,025B, though M2 growth slowed to 7.2% against 7.4% expected. Japan core machinery orders came in at 18.6% against 15.7% consensus and 11.2% prior. On energy, the API weekly crude stock showed a 11.12M draw against an expected 1.9M build, with official EIA numbers still to come. US mortgage data was soft: the 30-year rate at 7.50%, applications down 2.7%, purchase index 139.3 from 145.1. The US Thomson Reuters IPSOS consumer sentiment reading dropped to 45.18 from 50.45.

A note on the calendar items

About twenty of these items were pulled in full text, but all of them are Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned nothing but site scaffolding, so the consensus and prior figures carried in their headers are the entire content available. That covers the Australian labour data (unemployment consensus 4.6%, employment change 19.6K against 39.5K prior, participation 67.0%), South Korean trade, Singapore exports and the various money supply and reserve lines. Treat them as calendar entries, not as articles.

September CPI came in hot

The September CPI is the one thing driving everything else in this section. Headline prices rose 0.6% on the month after a 0.4% gain in August, putting the annual rate at 3.7% against forecasts of 3.6% and up from 3.4% in August. Core rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, 2.6% year on year. Nick Timiraos, in headline-only posts, puts core at +0.33% unrounded and notes the three-month annualised core rate jumped to 3.4% from 2% in August, with core goods at +0.25%, the biggest monthly gain in a year, and shelter at +0.39%. Separate headline items attribute more than half the monthly increase to energy, with gasoline up 9.1% and fuel oil up 15.3%, and one notes this is the 66th straight month above the Fed's 2% target.

Rate-hike odds reprice, then partly unwind

Pricing for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting moved hard. Per the Investing.com piece read in full, trader odds of a hike went from 22% before the data to about 40% in the morning, then faded back to roughly 33% by late afternoon on LSEG data. Headline items put Kalshi at various points as high as 55%. Citigroup, per a headline-only post, now expects a 25bp hike in December, having previously forecast no change this year. Fed speakers leaned uncomfortable rather than committal: Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance the data was "discouraging" and said services inflation shows little sign of improvement, while affirming the Fed will get back to 2%. Barkin said CPI was higher than hoped and declined to prejudge October. Headline items flag Kevin Warsh speaking Thursday at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, the last scheduled Fed remarks before the blackout.

Treasuries reversed the selloff

Despite the data, Treasuries ended Wednesday rallying. Two-year yields hit their highest in over two weeks right after the release, up as much as 12.7bp to 4.92% at one point per a headline post, before retreating with longer maturities. End-of-session quotes in the article show the 10-year at 5.186% (down 0.59%), the 30-year at 5.522% and the 2-year at 4.81%, with the 10-2 spread widening about 4bp. The article frames the reversal as a tug-of-war between the inflation print and recent Fed comments suggesting no rush to hike further.

Equities sold off, led by tech

The S&P 500 closed at 7,723.59, down 1.05%, with the Nasdaq off 1.88% at 26,692.87 and the Dow roughly flat at -0.09%. VIX rose about 10% to 16.80. The damage was concentrated in AI and semis: NVDA -3.09%, AMD -5.73%, META -3.27%, MU -4.08%, with ORCL -8.82%, MRVL -8.67% and CRWV -15.46% among the worst. Defensives held up, UNH +4.77%, BMY +4.59%, KR +3.87%. Headline-only pieces from Investing.com tie the move to rate-hike bets ("Red hot CPI report fuels AI rout", "AI infrastructure firms slump"). A TradingView post read in full describes the futures tape: CPI swept the buy side above 7,874 on ES then flushed 140 points into 7,741, with 7,821 cited as the level where range value low and daily value area high overlap.

Gold and miners lower

Spot gold fell 1.5% to $4,095.16 as the inflation print pushed hike expectations up. Miners followed: Barrick -1.5%, Newmont -1.7%, Harmony -1.6%, Gold Fields -0.8%, Sibanye Stillwater -2.6%, Agnico Eagle -2.2%, Kinross -1.6%. Note gold futures in the same page quotes were marked slightly higher at 4,123.65, +0.38%. A cluster of headline-only Kitco items covers the same story from different angles, including whether gold can hold $4,000 with an October hike in play and a UBP view that the Treasury-yield-driven losses may have run their course.

Other US data and the rates backdrop

Supporting US data was mixed. Existing home sales came in at 3.99M against 3.95M expected and 3.93M prior. NFIB small business optimism was 97.9, below the 98.1 consensus and 98.7 prior. Redbook retail jumped to 10.4% from 8.6%. The MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate is reported at 7.50%, up 53bp in four weeks and 108bp on the year. The Beige Book, per a headline post, showed little or no change in employment across most districts, with only two of twelve recording moderate growth and three reporting strong price increases. The New York Fed is holding off on new bond purchases for a third straight month, buying $14.6bn of bills through reinvestment only.

Europe, UK and Asia

European shares closed higher despite the US print, FTSE 100 +0.70% at 10,724.86, DAX +0.25%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.33%. In the UK, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said he is sceptical about market pricing of four rate hikes, per headline-only Investing.com items, and the FTSE wrap ties the day's gains partly to those hike doubts. Spain's final EU-harmonised inflation printed at 5.0% for September. Italian BTP auctions cleared notably higher than previous: 3-year at 3.69% from 3.43%, 7-year at 4.24% from 3.98%, 15-year at 4.84% from 3.95%. Germany's 5-year Bobl went the other way, 3.220% from 3.280%.

Calendar entries with no data behind them

A large block of this section is Nasdaq economic calendar entries whose pages returned no data at all, so all that exists is the consensus and previous on the line itself: China CPI (1.0% consensus vs 0.8% prior), China PPI (4.4% vs 3.8%), China trade balance (116.80B USD consensus vs 119.09B), Singapore GDP (5.0% vs 5.9%), Japan M2 and M3, Australia's MI leading index, the US federal budget balance (-29.0B consensus vs -167.0B), and scheduled remarks from Lagarde, Lane, BoE's Breeden, and Fed's Collins and Barkin. Nothing further is available on any of them.

What's queued for today

Per the futures note read in full, Thursday carries UK GDP at 02:00 ET and Bailey at 03:30 ET, then PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, Empire and Philly Fed all at 08:30 ET. Headline items note Wall Street is set to raise core PCE forecasts after the CPI miss, with TD Securities already at 0.36% from 0.21%, so PPI will feed directly into those revisions.