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September FOMC minutes, hawkish but not unanimous on what comes next

The main event is the September 15-16 FOMC minutes, released Wednesday. All 19 participants backed the 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase in over three years, and most judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, with some flagging that the AI investment boom could push demand beyond supply and add price pressure. Officials described the labour market as near full employment with risks there now broadly balanced, and said financial conditions still looked supportive of growth despite higher Treasury yields, pointing to this year's equity gains and narrow corporate spreads. A few participants discussed what has driven long-end yields higher: stronger incoming data, AI-related borrowing, and geopolitics. The committee stressed every meeting is approached with an open mind. Nick Timiraos posted the key "by year end" sentence directly, and the Fed's own account confirmed the release.

Market pricing disagrees with the committee

The gap between what the minutes say and what's priced is the story underneath. Per CME FedWatch, the odds of no move in October stood near 81%, up from about 54% a month ago. Investing.com attributes the shift to softer data since the meeting, August PCE at 3.4% year over year with core at 3.0%, both below expectations, and September nonfarm payrolls of just 29k, the slowest hiring this year, alongside Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. Dovish remarks from New York Fed's John Williams, who said there was "no need for urgency," and Vice Chair Jefferson, who wanted more data, moved the needle too. BlackBull Markets, writing on TradingView, frames the remaining calendar as October 28 and December 9 and reads December as the more credible window, also noting the minutes imply no hikes next year. Capital Economics, via Walter Bloomberg, argues central banks will hike less than markets price, since much of the tightening in bond yields reflects hike expectations that could unwind, and expects energy prices to fall next year, limiting second-round effects.

Long end at multi-decade highs, strong 10-year auction

Yields are the pressure point. Headlines report the 30-year Treasury hitting 5.706%, a 24-year high, and the 10-year at 5.323%, with Brent above $101. The 10-year has risen 28 basis points since September 16 and is at its highest since early 2002. The $39 billion 10-year auction stopped at 5.30% with a 2.77 bid-to-cover and heavy indirect demand, strong enough to pull the yield back from an intraday high near 5.36%, per tastyfx. Investing.com's market board showed the 10-year at 5.284% up 1.6bp and the 30-year at 5.668%. The selloff is global: headline items flag the UK 30-year at its highest since 1998, UK 10-year gilts near 5.5% and the 30-year above 6%. Cited drivers for the rout are an oil-led inflation shock, AI-related corporate debt issuance, hawkish central bank expectations, and French fiscal problems. Headline-only notes from American Century call a 5.25% 10-year an attractive entry and say the selloff looks overdone, while BNP warns axing the 20-year bond could push yields higher and keeps a 30-year short.

Equities and the dollar on the day

US stocks were lower. Investing.com's board showed the Dow down 357 points, or 0.69%, at 51,163, the S&P 500 off 0.28% at 7,796 and the Nasdaq down 0.35% at 27,502, with VIX at 15.03 and the Dollar Index at 102.04. The S&P had hit record levels Tuesday on a four-session win streak and barely reacted to the minutes, holding losses of about 0.2%. Gold futures were 4,132 and silver 59.93, both slightly lower. Headlines echo the pattern: stocks falling and yields rising on inflation worries, the dollar firming as gold falls, and IBD covering a 400-point Dow slide. Among single names on that board, Micron was up 3.80%, MicroStrategy down 6.95% and Caterpillar down 5.55%.

Trump versus the Fed board

Asked about mortgage rates, Trump said the Federal Reserve Board "would like to see the country do badly, in my opinion, because I think interest rates should come down." He called Chair Kevin Warsh "great" but singled out the rest of the board. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in the Oval Office, blamed the energy shock for high inflation and said that once past the Iran conflict the energy market would be well supplied, bringing inflation toward target and pulling mortgage rates and the 10-year down. Separate headlines have Trump saying the US should have the lowest interest rate in the world. Context: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 7.49%, the highest since November 2023, roughly 1.4 points above late February.

Inflation expectations and the data slate

A cluster of headline-only items points one way on expectations. The NY Fed's September survey showed one-year consumer inflation expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.6%, the highest since May 2023, with three-year up to 3.3% and five-year steady at 3.0%. Indian households also expect higher inflation per an RBI survey, and the RBI raised rates 25bp, its first hike in three years, on a worsening inflation outlook. Poland held at 3.75%. On the US data tape: trade deficit widened to $105.60B against $100.80B expected, Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.7%, Redbook 8.6%, IBD/TIPP optimism 46.8 versus 44.5 expected, the 3-year auction stopped at 4.932% against 4.474% prior, and API crude stocks drew 2.090M. Abroad, German factory orders collapsed 10.6% against a 0.9% decline expected, Canada's Ivey PMI dropped to 58.2 versus 65.2 expected, and eurozone retail sales rose 0.1%.

Fed speakers on deck

The calendar carries a long list of speakers around the minutes: Logan, Schmid, Bowman, Williams twice, plus ECB's Elderson, Buba's Buch and BOJ's Ueda. Headline items note Schmid saying more hikes are needed despite higher yields, Daly saying the need for further hikes depends on how the economy handles shocks, and Bowman outlining a Fed plan to overhaul bank supervision responsibilities.

Note on the calendar entries

A number of the Nasdaq economic calendar items read in full, including China FX reserves at 3.400T versus 3.438T prior, Japanese wages and foreign reserves, and the Australian building approvals lines, returned only boilerplate page furniture with no article behind them. The figures in their headlines are all there is.

Bond selloff is the whole backdrop

The dominant story going into the open is the long end. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.706%, its highest since 2002, with the 10-year at 5.323% as the global bond selloff resumed ahead of the Fed minutes. That reading came via a Deltaone post, which also noted Brent above $101. Investor's Business Daily, read in full, had Dow futures down 0.8%, close to 400 points, with S&P 500 futures also lower, attributing the pressure directly to rapidly rising Treasury yields with the FOMC minutes due later in the session. Worth noting the sequence: a separate Deltaone item earlier described yields retreating from those 24-year highs, 10-year to 5.27% and 30-year to 5.63%, after oil slipped below $100 and Scott Bessent said stronger growth and spending restraint would start improving the debt trajectory. So the move has been two-way over the last couple of sessions, and today's leg is the renewed selloff.

Where that leaves the Fed debate

This is a tightening cycle, not an easing one, and the headlines are consistent on that. Schmid said more rate hikes are needed despite higher yields. Daly said the need for more hikes hinges on how the economy handles shocks. Julius Baer expects one final 25bp hike in December then an extended pause, pointing to a cooling labour market and tighter financial conditions driven mainly by long-end yields. Nick Timiraos noted the probability of an October hike fell to roughly 25% from 70% after two Fed deputies spoke last week, ahead of any new data. Jamie Dimon flagged the risk that inflation is sticky and rates go higher. Williams, Bowman, Logan and Bowman again are all on the calendar, alongside the minutes themselves, which Investing.com says could detail the rate-hike decision and the policy path.

The pushback on yields

Two notes argue the selloff has overshot. American Century's Charles Tan calls a 5.25% 10-year an attractive entry for long-term investors, saying the surge was driven largely by forced selling, and separately points to competition from an AI-related credit boom as a major factor behind the spike in government yields, calling projected multi-trillion AI spending unrealistic. UBS addresses the 1999 comparison directly, seeing parallels between dotcom-era telecom spending and today's AI infrastructure build but not accepting the analogy wholesale. BNP Paribas warns that scrapping the 20-year Treasury could push yields higher by signalling panic, and is keeping its 30-year short. These are headline-only items, so that's the substance available.

Rates feeding through to housing

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 7.49%, the highest since November 2023, per Deltaone, up roughly 1.4 percentage points since late February as Treasury yields surged.

US data flow

The trade deficit widened to 105.60B against a 100.80B consensus and 92.80B prior, with imports jumping to 420.80B from 399.30B and exports up more modestly to 315.20B. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sat unchanged at 3.7%. IBD/TIPP economic optimism came in at 46.8 against 44.5 expected. Redbook accelerated to 8.6% from 8.2%. Tuesday's ISM non-manufacturing was a mixed set: headline 54.9 slightly short of 55.1, new orders 59.8 just light, employment better at 50.1 versus 48.8 expected, but prices paid rose to 74.0 from 72.6. The 3-year note auction cleared at 4.932%, well above the prior 4.474%. API crude showed a 2.090M draw after a 1.019M build. A New York Fed study cited by Timiraos found tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation by February 2026, and that without them goods prices would have fallen slightly, with about a quarter of each point of tariff showing up in consumer prices within a year.

Europe soft, inflation still the policy question

German factory orders collapsed 10.6% against expectations of a 0.9% decline and a prior 3.2% gain, the standout European miss. Construction PMIs were all in contraction: eurozone 43.4, Germany 43.5 down sharply from 48.7, France 39.8, Italy 46.5. Eurozone retail sales rose just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. French industrial production fell 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, and the French budget balance deteriorated to -159.6B from -145.9B. On the policy side, Italian economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said Wednesday the EU should treat rising inflation as a factor justifying deviation from budget targets; the context is Meloni's letter last month asking Brussels for additional flexibility so governments can fund aid against an energy-driven inflation spike using extra revenue from fiscal drag. In the UK, construction PMI improved to 46.1 from 44.3 but stayed in contraction, and BoE's Mann said high inflation has become embedded in the UK. Hungary came in at 1.6% for September, below forecast, Czech inflation at 2.5% driven by energy.

Asia-Pacific and other central banks

The RBI raised rates 25bp, its first hike in three years, with a worsening inflation outlook given as the reason. BOJ board member Ayano Sato backed further gradual hikes while flagging weak consumption, and declined to specify timing. BOJ Governor Ueda was also on the speaking calendar. Japan's wage data is due with overall employee income expected at 3.7% against a prior reading of 4.3% or 4.7% depending on the calendar entry. China's FX reserves fell to 3.400T from 3.438T. Canada's Ivey PMI came in notably weak at 58.2 against a 65.2 consensus and 64.3 prior.

FX, gold and oil

The dollar has been firm. Sterling dipped on a firmer dollar with EUR/GBP at a 16-month low. Gold is the crowded topic in the TradingView feed, with most posts framed around the 4,100 to 4,150 area and waiting on the FOMC minutes for direction. Kitco reported Tuesday that spot gold and silver rose as yields eased from multi-decade highs and the dollar pulled back, while noting December Fed risk remains, and separately that 5.3% bond yields now compete with gold for income-seeking capital. Australian gold miners rose as bullion gained and Fed hike bets faded. Oil firmed on a Houthi threat, with European stocks slipping ahead of the minutes. The one full-text TradingView piece, on GBP/USD, is a chart-pattern post arguing a bullish harmonic structure has held through the FOMC decision and the inflation data; treat it as one author's view, not market reporting.

Housekeeping on the full-text items

A large share of the items flagged as full-text reads here were Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned nothing but site boilerplate, so for those the figures in the headline line are all there is. I've used them as data points above rather than implying any reporting behind them.

Yields back off 24-year highs

The dominant story is the long end. Headlines from @DeItaone record the 10-year hitting a fresh 24-year high at 5.3493% and the 30-year at 5.6959% before both retreated, that account attributing the pullback to oil falling below $100 and Treasury Secretary Bessent pledging that stronger growth and spending restraint would start improving the US debt trajectory. The market tables inside the full-text Investing.com pieces show where things settled: US 10Y 5.282 (down 0.58%), 30Y 5.653, 5Y 5.036, 2Y 4.802, with the 10-2 spread at 31.3bp, wider by 15%. Equities took the relief well, S&P 500 at 7,820.85 up 0.60% and described elsewhere as a first record high since mid-August, Dow 51,521.22 up 0.49%, Nasdaq 27,599.79 up 0.45%, VIX down 3.09% to 15.04. Several headline-only items argue the selloff overshot: American Century's Charles Tan calls 5.25% on the 10-year an attractive entry and blames forced selling plus competition from an AI-related credit boom, while UBS pushes back on the 1999 dotcom comparison that other headlines are reviving.

Fed voices pulling in different directions

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, speaking at a regional economic event in Oklahoma, said the Fed needs to raise its policy rate further to bring inflation down. He acknowledged that high long-term bond yields are pushing up borrowing costs and causing weakness in some sectors, but said the Fed focuses on the short-term rate and more action is required. Schmid does not vote on policy this year. Against that, a TradingView piece from BlackBull notes San Francisco's Mary Daly told Axios she supported September's hike but is not committing to another, seeing room to hold if energy pressures ease and tariff effects work through, a view echoed in two headline-only Daly items. Headlines also flag Julius Baer expecting one final 25bp hike in December then a long pause, Nick Timiraos noting October hike odds fell to roughly 25% from 70% after two Fed deputies spoke last week, and Jamie Dimon warning inflation could prove sticky and rates go higher.

FOMC minutes and Wednesday's calendar

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting land Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET and are the week's focal point. The Investing.com preview lists alongside them EIA crude inventories at 9:30 AM (previous +0.922M), a 10-year note auction at noon (previous 4.834%), consumer credit at 2:00 PM (forecast 14.40B against 18.06B prior), the MBA mortgage batch at 6:00 AM with the 30-year rate last at 7.30% and applications down 6.0%, and NY Fed one-year consumer inflation expectations at 10:00 AM, previously 3.6%. The BlackBull note frames the minutes as the test of how widely Daly's wait-and-see view is held, with implications for the dollar against the yen and for gold.

ISM services soft on activity, hot on prices

September ISM services came in at 54.9 against 55.1 expected and 55.4 prior. Business activity dropped to 56.5 from 61.7, new orders eased to 59.8, but employment returned to expansion at 50.1 versus 48.8 expected. Prices paid jumped to 74.0 from 72.6, above the 73.3 consensus, and @DeItaone's summary of the release points to that price component as the main concern. Separately, Nick Timiraos relays New York Fed work finding tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation by February 2026, and that without them goods prices would have fallen slightly, with about a quarter of each point of higher tariff rate showing up in consumer prices within a year.

Bowman's supervision overhaul

The Fed said Tuesday it will restructure bank supervision, replacing the system in which the 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents oversee examinations with five new geographic supervisory regions, each run by a regional leader reporting into Washington. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the current setup "disincentivized a critical link between responsibility and accountability," citing an independent review she commissioned into the Silicon Valley Bank collapse that found examiners slow to act. She also criticised the Fed's reliance on committees, saying they became "a source for plausible deniability," and said their use should be streamlined. Examination work itself stays with regional Reserve Bank staff.

Europe, UK and Japan

European data came in better than the prior month almost across the board: eurozone composite PMI 53.1 and services 53.0, both matching consensus and up from 52.0 and 51.6, Germany services 52.9 from 49.7, France services 51.2 from 48.0, Spain services 58.3 beating 57.1. Italy was the outlier, services 51.7 against 54.6 expected. Eurozone PPI rose to 1.9% from 1.6%, Sentix investor confidence fell to 2.7 against 4.5 expected. Headlines report European stocks up about 1% as French debt fears calmed and the ECB's Lane said he is not seeing strong second-round inflation effects, while Rehn said high yields will dampen energy price pass-through. France remains a live political story, with central bank head Emmanuel Moulin warning the state risks being "strangled by interest rates" and Mélenchon calling that an act of treason. In the UK, the BoE's Catherine Mann said high inflation has become embedded. In Japan, BOJ board member Ayano Sato backed gradual hikes without specifying timing while flagging weak consumption, and separate headlines say the BOJ may signal underlying inflation has reached its 2% goal.

Gold, silver and oil

Gold futures were 4,196.90, up 0.23%, with silver at 61.78. Kitco headlines tie the bid to easing long-dated yields and oil slipping under $100, while noting December Fed risk still caps the move, and one Kitco item has silver up 2.00% to $61.48 and gold up 0.36% to $4,154.60 after weak US jobs data with October no-change odds near 82%. WTI was 89.83 and Brent 101.06, both up marginally. A large number of the gold items here are TradingView chart posts, headline only, and add no new information.

Calendar entries with no content behind them

A long tail of this section is Nasdaq economic calendar stubs, Japanese wage and reserves lines, Australian building approvals and sentiment, scheduled Fed and ECB speaker slots. Where those were read in full, the pages returned only site boilerplate with no data, so the figures in the headlines are all there is. A Federal Reserve tweet in the set is a phishing warning to the public, not policy.

Treasuries at 24-year highs, then a pullback

The dominant story is the long end. Headlines from DeItaone report the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a fresh 24-year high at 5.3493%, last up 6.59bp at 5.343%, with the 30-year reaching 5.6959% and last up 5.89bp at 5.689%. The stated drivers are resilient growth, AI-driven investment and sticky inflation, with ISM Services prices paid called out specifically. A later item has yields retreating from those highs, the 10-year back to 5.27% and the 30-year to 5.63%, attributed to oil falling below $100 and Scott Bessent saying stronger growth and spending restraint would start improving the US debt trajectory. An intermediate print has the 10-year at 5.296% and 5.30%, so the sequencing in the list is not strictly chronological. Two sell-side notes push back on the alarm: UBS argues this selloff is not 1999 again, drawing the dotcom-telecom to AI-infrastructure comparison while noting 1999 saw yields near 5.8%, and JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka says the yield spike should not do lasting damage to equities, expecting yields to come back down on resilient growth and strong earnings.

ISM services cooler, prices paid hot

September ISM Services came in at 54.9 against 55.1 consensus and 55.4 prior. Business Activity dropped to 56.5 from 61.7, New Orders eased to 59.8 from 60.9, and Employment improved to 50.1 from 47.8, back above the expansion line and ahead of the 48.8 consensus. Prices Paid jumped to 74.0 from 72.6, above the 73.3 expected, which is the number the yield commentary keeps pointing at. The CB Employment Trends Index slipped to 107.56 from 108.08. Vehicle sales softened, with all car sales at 2.52M from 2.74M and truck sales 13.46M from 13.85M.

Fed path is about hikes, not cuts

The pricing backdrop here is a tightening debate. Several headlines describe reduced odds of an October Fed hike after weak US jobs data, with Kitco putting no-change odds near 82%, and Nasdaq futures reportedly hitting a record on that. Julius Baer expects one final 25bp hike in December followed by an extended pause, citing a cooling labour market and sharply tighter financial conditions driven mostly by rising long-term Treasury yields. Today's speaker slate is heavy: NY Fed's John Williams at 9:05 ET (voter, described as dove, moderating a panel), St. Louis Fed's Musalem at 10:45 (non-voter, hawk), and Vice Chair Bowman at roughly the same time on banking regulation, plus Dallas Fed's Logan on the calendar. Also on the US docket: weekly ADP employment change, the trade balance (consensus -95.20B against -88.60B prior), RCM/TIPP optimism, a $95B 6-week bill auction and a 3-year note auction (previous 4.474%). Bills that have already cleared came cheaper: 6-month at 4.165% from 4.285%, 3-month at 4.050% from 4.110%. FOMC minutes are flagged as the week's focus alongside the auctions.

Europe PMIs strong, price pressures the catch

Eurozone composite PMI printed 53.1 and services 53.0, both in line, with one headline calling it a 41-month high and noting price pressures are feeding ECB bets. Germany led, services 52.9 from 49.7 and composite 53.8 from 51.8. France returned to expansion, services 51.2 and composite 51.1, both a touch under consensus but up from sub-50 prior readings. Italy went the other way, services 51.7 against 54.6 expected and 55.2 prior. Spain services at 58.3 beat. Eurozone PPI was 1.9%, in line, up from 1.6%. Sentix investor confidence fell to 2.7 against 4.5 expected. Construction PMIs remain deeply contractionary across the bloc. UK composite came in at 52.0, above the 51.7 consensus but off 52.5. On the official side, Lane says he is not seeing strong second-round inflation effects, Rehn says high yields will dampen energy price pass-through, and Bundesbank's Nagel warned that German gas storage at roughly 59% full, the lowest seasonal level, could add to winter inflation risk. France's central bank head Emmanuel Moulin told the FT the state risks being strangled by interest rates. French bill auctions all cleared higher: 3-month 2.786%, 6-month 2.997%, 12-month 3.262%.

Gold and silver

Gold is reported holding near $4,140 to $4,154, with Kitco putting spot gold up 0.36% at $4,154.60 and silver up 2.00% at $61.480, silver leading on the weak US jobs print, with high yields capping gold's rebound. The one gold piece read in full is a TradingView chart post marking price around 4,176 and describing the macro setup as mixed: softer US employment has cut October hike expectations to the low-20% area in that author's reading, which he treats as supportive, while a firm dollar and elevated yields pressure a non-yielding asset. He notes gold staying above $4,000 despite those yields. The rest of that post is the author's own technical levels and directional view, which I'm not relaying as fact. Beyond it, there are roughly two dozen headline-only gold chart posts in the list, none of which carry news content.

Rest of the world data

BOJ Governor Ueda is on the calendar and separate headlines say he called for more focus on anchoring inflation around target, with sources suggesting the BOJ may signal underlying inflation has reached the 2% goal. New Zealand's NZIER business confidence jumped to 43 from 8, with capacity utilisation at 91.0% from 90.8%. South Korea's FX reserves fell to $440.56B from $442.28B and Canada's reserve assets to 125.3B from 127.4B. Thai September headline CPI rose 2.82% year on year, below forecast, Czech inflation rose to 2.5% on energy prices, and Turkish inflation fell more than expected. BoE's Mann said high inflation has become embedded in the UK. Italy's public deficit printed 2.0% against 8.9% prior.

A note on the calendar items

Twenty items in this section were marked as read in full, but nineteen of them are Nasdaq economic calendar pages that returned only site boilerplate, with "Data is currently not available" in place of any content. For those entries, the consensus and previous figures in the item lines themselves are all that's usable, and I've used them where they matter. There is no article text behind them.

Yields at 24-year highs

The dominant fact before the open is the Treasury selloff. The 10-year traded to a fresh 24-year high of 5.3493% and was last up 6.59 basis points at 5.343%, and the 30-year hit 5.6959%, up 5.89bp at 5.689%. Both are the highest levels since 2002. The reasons given in the Walter Bloomberg post are resilient growth, AI-driven investment and inflation that has not gone away, with ISM Services Prices Paid at 74.0 the specific trigger cited. Note the direction of policy risk here: the market is pricing a hike, roughly 25% for October and a full 25bp by December on that account. A TradingView bond post made the same point from the chart side, describing T-bond futures falling steadily with the new Fed chair seen as having no room to cut while inflation stays sticky.

ISM services, cooling activity with hotter prices

September ISM Services came in at 54.9 against 55.1 expected and 55.4 in August. Underneath, business activity dropped to 56.5 from 61.7, new orders eased to 59.8 from 60.9, and employment improved to 50.1 from 47.8, back above the expansion line and better than the 48.8 forecast. Prices Paid rose to 74.0 from 72.6, the highest since July 2022, attributed to higher fuel costs, tariffs and supply-chain constraints. S&P Global Services came in at 58.8 against 58.7. So the mix is steady growth, a firmer labour component and rising input costs, which Investing.com's preview says tends to keep the Fed cautious.

Weak payrolls against the hawkish price data

Pulling the other way is the September jobs report from October 2. Calendar lines show nonfarm payrolls at just 29K against an 89K consensus and 133K prior, private payrolls 46K versus 85K expected, government payrolls -17K, unemployment up to 4.2% against 4.1% expected, and average hourly earnings up only 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year over year, both below forecast. Participation ticked to 61.8%. That print is what collapsed October hike odds: Investing.com's Gulf markets piece cites CME FedWatch showing the probability of a hike this month falling below 20% from 64%, with December still expected, and a TradingView SPX note puts it at 19.4% versus 70.9% a week earlier. A Kitco headline frames an October pause as the base case at roughly 82%. So equities are reading the jobs data and the long end is reading the prices data, and both are moving at once.

Equities ignoring the bond move

Stocks have brushed off the rout so far. The quote board in the Investing.com preview showed the S&P 500 at 7,777.31 up 0.71%, the Nasdaq Composite at 27,477.31 up 1.05%, the Dow at 51,268.37 up 0.18%, VIX 15.51. Nikkei closed up 2.40% and the FTSE 100 up 0.34%, both attributed in headlines to the softer US jobs data cutting Fed hike bets. Headlines also carry JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka arguing the yield spike will not do lasting damage to equities, on resilient growth and strong earnings, with yields expected to retreat. TradingView posts split both ways on the Nasdaq: one sees the breakout holding above roughly 30,700–30,800 on US100, another expects a test of the weekly 100-MA near 26,250. A separate piece argues an Anthropic IPO could still make sense now given the Nasdaq Composite at a record, despite higher borrowing costs.

The week's calendar is thin and auction-heavy

No CPI this week, and no payrolls. The scheduled events that matter, per Investing.com, are the FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2pm ET, a 10-year note auction Wednesday at 1pm with a 4.834% previous, jobless claims Thursday forecast at 200K against 197K, a 30-year bond auction Thursday at 1pm with a 5.308% previous, and Michigan sentiment Friday at 47.6 versus 48.1, with 1-year inflation expectations last at 4.6% and 5-year at 3.4%. Fed speakers: Bowman and Williams Tuesday, Waller Thursday, Collins Friday. Trade balance Tuesday is seen widening to -$95.2B from -$88.6B, and the last Atlanta Fed GDPNow read was 3.7%. The article's own framing is that a soft 30-year auction landing on hawkish minutes is the bad combination for risk, while steady claims and cooler inflation expectations is the benign one. Cleveland's Hammack said separately there is still time to weigh the next move.

Europe's rate problem

Bank of France head Emmanuel Moulin told the FT the French state risks being "strangled by interest rates." That sits alongside euro zone CPI at 3.8% against 3.7% expected and 3.2% prior, core at 2.5%, and headlines saying euro zone PMI hit a 41-month high with price pressures feeding ECB bets. Bundesbank's Nagel is quoted saying high inflation is not yet producing second-round effects, and in a separate headline criticising German gas storage at around 59% full, the lowest seasonal level, as a winter inflation risk. ECB's Lane said the energy price surge is a drag on growth that may limit the need for ECB action. Headlines also point to a live succession contest for Lagarde's job, with Merz meeting frontrunners.

Metals and the dollar

Silver led metals after the jobs data, up 2.00% to $61.480 spot with gold up 0.36% to $4,154.60 per Kitco, though the same note says high yields capped gold's rebound. A separate Kitco headline says gold bulls were disappointed that the weak jobs report failed to spark a rally, with $4,000 support in view. The TradingView silver piece has XAGUSD rejecting 62.06 and trading near 60.99, below its 9 EMA at 61.213 and 200 SMA at 62.125. The dollar index was around 101.915 on the Investing.com board, and one headline reports the dollar slipping on weak US data. The broad gold commentary on the list is heavily headline-only and mostly technical.

Fed politics and positioning

There is a steady drip on the Fed building renovation story: Trump posted that reporting suggesting the DOJ is finished is false, saying new chair Kevin Warsh has ordered an independent audit and AG Todd Blanche will investigate any wrongdoing, with the project hundreds of millions over budget per the Inspector General. Nick Timiraos reports Blanche telling Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal probe into Powell, but could if the Fed's own audit turns up evidence. Bessent told Axios he thinks Warsh is "doing well." On positioning, the latest CFTC figures show speculators more short S&P 500 at -142.5K from -133.2K, trimming gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, and cutting crude length sharply to 109.5K from 141.1K, with AUD, CAD and EUR shorts all growing.

The rest

The bulk of the remaining 180-odd items are headline-only TradingView chart posts, mostly on gold, and routine economic calendar lines. Worth flagging without overstating: Australian September PMIs came in above consensus but below August (services 51.9 vs 51.4 expected, 53.2 prior; composite 51.3 vs 50.8, 52.7 prior), US factory orders were 0.1% in line, Turkish inflation fell more than expected, and Gulf markets rose on lower hike odds plus Middle East crude exports running above pre-war levels despite Strait of Hormuz attacks.

Weak payrolls reset the October Fed question

The dominant fact going into this week is Friday's September employment report: nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 against a consensus near 89,000 and 133,000 prior, private payrolls 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, government payrolls down 17,000, and unemployment at 4.2% against 4.1% expected. Wages were soft too, average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year on year, both below forecast. That pulled the odds of an October hike sharply lower, with the gold commentary citing roughly an 18% market-implied probability for the October 28 meeting while December remains the more likely tightening window. Nick Timiraos framed it as a report that doesn't change the Fed's story so much as confirm it, noting senior officials had already spent the week signalling October probably wasn't their base case, and that the notable thing was the absence of wage or labour-market inflation pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected. There are no scheduled Fed speeches today.

Bonds still the main risk, ISM services at 10:00

The bond market is what Deutsche Bank expects to dominate early in the week. The US 10-year is around 5.27% to 5.29%, having recently pushed above 5.3% and reached about 5.34%, the highest since 2002. In Europe, the spread between French and German 10-year yields widened last week by the most in any week since the data series began in 1990, and Deutsche Bank's open question is whether this is the start of a new euro sovereign crisis or whether markets have already overshot. JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka takes the calmer side, arguing the yield spike won't do lasting damage to equities, that yields should retreat from here, and that growth and earnings stay supportive with inflation contained; he also thinks most of the French political risk is already in the CAC 40. Today's event is ISM services at 10:00 ET, consensus 55.7 after 55.4, with employment last at 47.8, new orders 60.9 and prices paid 72.6. There are 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 11:30 ET.

Equity futures flat, TSX firmer

US futures were close to unchanged pre-open, Dow and S&P 500 flat and Nasdaq 100 down 42 points or 0.1%. TSX 60 futures ticked up 4 points, 0.2%, after the composite rose 0.99% Friday to 35,502.65, ending a four-day slide that had taken it to a 10-week closing low; it still lost 0.8% on the week. Headlines point the same way elsewhere, with Asian stocks and the FTSE 100 up on the softer US jobs data. One SPY technical piece has the ETF at 769.50 premarket after a 769.64 Friday close, with 765.52 flagged as the line it is testing and the ISM print as the trigger.

Gold stuck between weak jobs and a firm dollar

Gold is the most written-about name here and the story is consistent across the pieces: spot around $4,150 to $4,158, up roughly 0.4%, futures near $4,186 to $4,191 up 0.6%, after last week's drop of about 3.4%, the sharpest weekly fall since June. Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets said the weak payrolls print eased pressure on the Fed to tighten further and gave the metal some support. The counterweights, repeated by several of the technical authors, are the dollar strengthening again Monday, the dollar index at 101.95 up 0.23%, and Treasury yields above 5.3%. Friday's session saw a spike towards $4,220-$4,226 on the NFP headline followed by an immediate rejection back to roughly $4,130. Commonly cited levels are support at $4,110-$4,130 and resistance at $4,180-$4,200, with most authors describing structure as neutral-to-bearish until $4,200 is reclaimed. Kitco's headline makes the same point from the other side, that bulls were disappointed the weak jobs report failed to spark a rally.

Oil and the G7 reserve release

Brent was about $102.43 to $102.69, up 0.2% to 0.4%, while WTI slid around 1% to $90.06-$90.39. Two things have taken the edge off energy inflation fears: Middle East oil exports topped pre-war levels on four of the final seven days of September despite attack risk in the Strait of Hormuz, and the G7 agreed late last week to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and to hold off on energy export restrictions, responding to pressure from President Trump. The risk of a widening regional conflict disrupting supply is still live, including renewed fighting involving Yemen's Houthis.

Euro area inflation and Nagel on German gas

Euro zone September CPI came in at 3.8% against 3.7% expected and 3.2% prior, with core at 2.5% in line and HICP ex energy and food at 2.2%. Headlines also have euro zone PMI at a 41-month high with price pressures feeding ECB tightening bets. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel added to the inflation side, criticising the slow rebuild of German gas inventories: storage is only about 59% full, the lowest seasonal level in records back to 2009 and well below the EU average of 72%, and he said upward risks dominate the euro-area inflation outlook with gas prices particularly exposed. Separately and more dovishly, headlines have ECB's Lane saying the energy price surge is a drag on growth that may limit the need for ECB action, and Nagel saying high inflation is not yet producing second-round effects. There is also a run of headlines on the ECB succession, with Italy seeking clarity on rumours about Lagarde's future and Merz reported by Bloomberg to be meeting frontrunners for her job.

Loonie at the 0.70 line on the rate gap

One full piece lays out the Canadian dollar in detail: it closed last week near 0.7017 against the US dollar, USD/CAD about 1.4250, the weakest for CAD since April 2025, down roughly 3.3% over the month. The driver is policy divergence. The Fed raised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 while the Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for seven straight meetings, leaving the Canada-US two-year gap at about 157 basis points, the widest since early 2025. Tariffs add to it: Canada's counter-tariffs on C$27.6bn of US goods took effect September 8 and the loonie fell in 12 of the next 13 sessions, and Washington's 50% duties on a range of Canadian goods extend to all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Canada's August CPI held at 3.0%. The BoC and Fed both decide on October 28.

Crypto and Coinbase

Bitcoin is holding near $86,000 after briefly trading above $87,000 last week, with the write-up attributing the firmer tone to the same fading Fed tightening expectations, plus positive weekly US spot ETF inflows and a Fear & Greed reading near 70. BofA raised its Coinbase target to $203 from $174 with a Buy rating, lifting 2027-2028 EPS on stronger expected stablecoin revenue after September's Fed hike, while trimming near-term estimates because trading volumes weakened even as Bitcoin and Ethereum rose 43% and 70% in Q3. A reply on that post notes Piper Sandler went to $170 from $146 three days earlier at Neutral, with consensus around $207. Coinbase was quoted at $183.00, down 3.32%.

Fed building investigation noise

A cluster of headlines covers the Federal Reserve renovation story rather than policy. Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg the DOJ is not reopening a criminal probe into Jerome Powell but could investigate if the Fed's own audit finds wrongdoing; Trump posted on Truth Social that coverage of this was false, pointing to new Chair Kevin Warsh's independent audit and an Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule. Hassett has urged Powell to leave the Fed board. On the policy side, headline-only items have Hammack saying there is time to weigh the next move and Goolsbee saying a hike and a pause are both on the table.

The rest of the calendar

Everything else is routine. US factory orders came in at 0.1%, matching consensus but down from 0.8%. Australian composite PMI was 51.3 against 50.8 expected, services 51.9 versus 51.4, both below prior readings. Turkish inflation fell more than expected in September, Brazilian industrial production was minus 0.6% against plus 0.1% expected, and Baker Hughes rig counts were essentially flat at 598 total. The weekly CFTC positioning data shows shorts extended across most currencies, notably CAD at minus 78.7K from minus 53.2K, AUD at minus 63.2K from minus 46.8K and EUR at minus 63.3K, with crude oil longs cut to 109.5K from 141.1K and gold longs trimmed to 218.6K. Note that the Nasdaq economic calendar items pulled in full returned only page boilerplate, so the figures in their headlines are all there is.