Weak payrolls reset the October Fed question
The dominant fact going into this week is Friday's September employment report: nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 against a consensus near 89,000 and 133,000 prior, private payrolls 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, government payrolls down 17,000, and unemployment at 4.2% against 4.1% expected. Wages were soft too, average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year on year, both below forecast. That pulled the odds of an October hike sharply lower, with the gold commentary citing roughly an 18% market-implied probability for the October 28 meeting while December remains the more likely tightening window. Nick Timiraos framed it as a report that doesn't change the Fed's story so much as confirm it, noting senior officials had already spent the week signalling October probably wasn't their base case, and that the notable thing was the absence of wage or labour-market inflation pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected. There are no scheduled Fed speeches today.
Bonds still the main risk, ISM services at 10:00
The bond market is what Deutsche Bank expects to dominate early in the week. The US 10-year is around 5.27% to 5.29%, having recently pushed above 5.3% and reached about 5.34%, the highest since 2002. In Europe, the spread between French and German 10-year yields widened last week by the most in any week since the data series began in 1990, and Deutsche Bank's open question is whether this is the start of a new euro sovereign crisis or whether markets have already overshot. JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka takes the calmer side, arguing the yield spike won't do lasting damage to equities, that yields should retreat from here, and that growth and earnings stay supportive with inflation contained; he also thinks most of the French political risk is already in the CAC 40. Today's event is ISM services at 10:00 ET, consensus 55.7 after 55.4, with employment last at 47.8, new orders 60.9 and prices paid 72.6. There are 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 11:30 ET.
Equity futures flat, TSX firmer
US futures were close to unchanged pre-open, Dow and S&P 500 flat and Nasdaq 100 down 42 points or 0.1%. TSX 60 futures ticked up 4 points, 0.2%, after the composite rose 0.99% Friday to 35,502.65, ending a four-day slide that had taken it to a 10-week closing low; it still lost 0.8% on the week. Headlines point the same way elsewhere, with Asian stocks and the FTSE 100 up on the softer US jobs data. One SPY technical piece has the ETF at 769.50 premarket after a 769.64 Friday close, with 765.52 flagged as the line it is testing and the ISM print as the trigger.
Gold stuck between weak jobs and a firm dollar
Gold is the most written-about name here and the story is consistent across the pieces: spot around $4,150 to $4,158, up roughly 0.4%, futures near $4,186 to $4,191 up 0.6%, after last week's drop of about 3.4%, the sharpest weekly fall since June. Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets said the weak payrolls print eased pressure on the Fed to tighten further and gave the metal some support. The counterweights, repeated by several of the technical authors, are the dollar strengthening again Monday, the dollar index at 101.95 up 0.23%, and Treasury yields above 5.3%. Friday's session saw a spike towards $4,220-$4,226 on the NFP headline followed by an immediate rejection back to roughly $4,130. Commonly cited levels are support at $4,110-$4,130 and resistance at $4,180-$4,200, with most authors describing structure as neutral-to-bearish until $4,200 is reclaimed. Kitco's headline makes the same point from the other side, that bulls were disappointed the weak jobs report failed to spark a rally.
Oil and the G7 reserve release
Brent was about $102.43 to $102.69, up 0.2% to 0.4%, while WTI slid around 1% to $90.06-$90.39. Two things have taken the edge off energy inflation fears: Middle East oil exports topped pre-war levels on four of the final seven days of September despite attack risk in the Strait of Hormuz, and the G7 agreed late last week to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and to hold off on energy export restrictions, responding to pressure from President Trump. The risk of a widening regional conflict disrupting supply is still live, including renewed fighting involving Yemen's Houthis.
Euro area inflation and Nagel on German gas
Euro zone September CPI came in at 3.8% against 3.7% expected and 3.2% prior, with core at 2.5% in line and HICP ex energy and food at 2.2%. Headlines also have euro zone PMI at a 41-month high with price pressures feeding ECB tightening bets. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel added to the inflation side, criticising the slow rebuild of German gas inventories: storage is only about 59% full, the lowest seasonal level in records back to 2009 and well below the EU average of 72%, and he said upward risks dominate the euro-area inflation outlook with gas prices particularly exposed. Separately and more dovishly, headlines have ECB's Lane saying the energy price surge is a drag on growth that may limit the need for ECB action, and Nagel saying high inflation is not yet producing second-round effects. There is also a run of headlines on the ECB succession, with Italy seeking clarity on rumours about Lagarde's future and Merz reported by Bloomberg to be meeting frontrunners for her job.
Loonie at the 0.70 line on the rate gap
One full piece lays out the Canadian dollar in detail: it closed last week near 0.7017 against the US dollar, USD/CAD about 1.4250, the weakest for CAD since April 2025, down roughly 3.3% over the month. The driver is policy divergence. The Fed raised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 while the Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for seven straight meetings, leaving the Canada-US two-year gap at about 157 basis points, the widest since early 2025. Tariffs add to it: Canada's counter-tariffs on C$27.6bn of US goods took effect September 8 and the loonie fell in 12 of the next 13 sessions, and Washington's 50% duties on a range of Canadian goods extend to all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Canada's August CPI held at 3.0%. The BoC and Fed both decide on October 28.
Crypto and Coinbase
Bitcoin is holding near $86,000 after briefly trading above $87,000 last week, with the write-up attributing the firmer tone to the same fading Fed tightening expectations, plus positive weekly US spot ETF inflows and a Fear & Greed reading near 70. BofA raised its Coinbase target to $203 from $174 with a Buy rating, lifting 2027-2028 EPS on stronger expected stablecoin revenue after September's Fed hike, while trimming near-term estimates because trading volumes weakened even as Bitcoin and Ethereum rose 43% and 70% in Q3. A reply on that post notes Piper Sandler went to $170 from $146 three days earlier at Neutral, with consensus around $207. Coinbase was quoted at $183.00, down 3.32%.
Fed building investigation noise
A cluster of headlines covers the Federal Reserve renovation story rather than policy. Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg the DOJ is not reopening a criminal probe into Jerome Powell but could investigate if the Fed's own audit finds wrongdoing; Trump posted on Truth Social that coverage of this was false, pointing to new Chair Kevin Warsh's independent audit and an Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule. Hassett has urged Powell to leave the Fed board. On the policy side, headline-only items have Hammack saying there is time to weigh the next move and Goolsbee saying a hike and a pause are both on the table.
The rest of the calendar
Everything else is routine. US factory orders came in at 0.1%, matching consensus but down from 0.8%. Australian composite PMI was 51.3 against 50.8 expected, services 51.9 versus 51.4, both below prior readings. Turkish inflation fell more than expected in September, Brazilian industrial production was minus 0.6% against plus 0.1% expected, and Baker Hughes rig counts were essentially flat at 598 total. The weekly CFTC positioning data shows shorts extended across most currencies, notably CAD at minus 78.7K from minus 53.2K, AUD at minus 63.2K from minus 46.8K and EUR at minus 63.3K, with crude oil longs cut to 109.5K from 141.1K and gold longs trimmed to 218.6K. Note that the Nasdaq economic calendar items pulled in full returned only page boilerplate, so the figures in their headlines are all there is.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant data point going into this week is Friday's September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against a consensus near 84,000-89,000, with private payrolls at 46,000 and government employment falling 17,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% against 4.1% expected, participation rose to 61.8%, and wage growth cooled to 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year over year, both below forecast. Nick Timiraos noted job growth over the prior three months was also revised a little softer, and that the most important thing about the report was what it didn't show: few signs of wage or labor-market inflation pressure. His read, per the wire summary, is that this clears the path for a Fed pause in October. Kalshi moved to an 85% probability of a hold, and Fed-dated swaps no longer price a full rate hike this year.
Why a pause, not a cut
Context matters here, because the direction of travel at the Fed is still tightening. Policymakers under Chairman Kevin Warsh raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous vote, with the dot plot flagging another increase later in 2026 and more into 2027 on sticky inflation. Timiraos added that senior officials had already spent the week signalling an October hike was probably not their base case, so the payrolls print didn't change the story so much as confirm it. Headline-only items have Hammack saying there is still time to weigh the next move and Goolsbee saying both a hike and a pause are on the table. Hassett's reaction was that the jobs report was "about expected."
Yields went the other way
The awkward part of Friday is that the bond market did not follow the dovish script. One full-text piece tracked the intraday sequence precisely: the 10-year dropped from 5.224% to 5.176% on the miss, then reversed and climbed 11.8 basis points to 5.294% by 17:30 UTC, finishing above where it started. Oil bottomed at 88.48 and rose 3.8% to 91.81 over the same afternoon. The 10-year settled at 5.277, up 4.3bp, with the 30-year at 5.63 and the 10-2 spread widening 15% to 31bp. Several writers flag these as the highest yields since 2002 on the 10-year and 2004 on the 30-year. One TradingView macro piece attributes the bond selloff to three things: persistent inflation worry tied to geopolitics and energy, heavy borrowing by governments and large tech companies, and doubt that deficits have a credible path to stabilizing. Citi, per a headline, has said a rates selloff without accompanying Fed repricing is concerning.
Equities near the 7,800 line
Stocks took the weak jobs number as good news. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, the Nasdaq rose 1.19% to 27,190.86 and finished near a record, the Dow added 0.49% to 51,176.96, and VIX fell 6.59% to 15.31. But the week overall was weaker than the Friday rally suggests: the S&P slipped roughly 0.3% on the week, the Dow fell 1.3%, and roughly three quarters of S&P constituents ended lower, with a small group of tech and AI names doing most of the work. 7,800 is the level that has repeatedly capped the index; 7,600 and 7,300 are cited below. The economic calendar this week is relatively light, which leaves yields and oil as the main inputs. The same broad tension shows up in another piece: AI-driven earnings growth against historically elevated valuations and high discount rates, with the writer's base case being more upside accompanied by sharply higher volatility and every earnings report scrutinized.
Gold off its highs
Gold is the clearest loser from the hawkish Fed backdrop. Four separate full-text pieces cover the same picture: spot closed Friday at 4,140.52, well below the post-NFP spike high of 4,227.5, with gold futures at 4,172.10, down 0.72%. One writer tracks the slide from roughly 4,520 highs down to the 4,119-4,142 area, the lowest in weeks, attributing it to dollar strength, high Treasury yields, and uncertainty over the Fed path, and notes the oddity that the weak jobs print would normally support gold. Gold did spike to 4,248 right after the release, then fell 2.2% by 16:00 UTC. Commonly cited levels across these pieces: resistance 4,143-4,150 and 4,175-4,200, support 4,100-4,115, with 4,014-4,036 below that. One contrarian piece looks for a move back toward 4,280.
Europe inflation and French spreads
Eurozone September HICP came in at 3.8% year over year, above the 3.6%-3.7% consensus and up sharply from 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5% from 2.4%. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December. Separately, French sovereign stress keeps widening: the 10-year OAT-Bund spread reached 152 basis points, described as the widest since 2011-2012, and five-year French CDS hit a multiyear high of 81 basis points. RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell has said the spread could reach 200bp in coming months. One FX piece ties the euro's weakness directly to that spread widening, against a sterling supported by an upward revision to UK GDP. The dollar index sat at 101.697, essentially flat on the day, and notably barely moved at all through Friday's payrolls session.
Powell, the renovation report, and Fed politics
A running political story. The Fed's inspector general reported on September 30 that it found no criminal wrongdoing and no administrative misconduct in the $2.4 billion headquarters renovation, but cited management deficiencies that helped nearly double the original cost. Trump said Powell should be forced to resign from the board; Attorney General Todd Blanche said Friday the DOJ will not reopen a criminal investigation, though it could if the Fed's own independent audit turns up evidence. Kevin Hassett said Sunday on Fox that it is "time for him to move on." Powell has stayed on the board since leaving the chair in May, breaking with precedent, and has said the threat of criminal investigations left him no option. Trump posted on Truth Social that coverage suggesting DOJ is done is "fake news." Separately, Bessent told Axios he thinks Warsh is "doing well," adding that part of his job is making sure the Fed chair hears what's going on in the wider world.
Other data and positioning
US manufacturing data was mixed but with a hot price component: ISM manufacturing PMI 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both above consensus, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Factory orders rose 0.1%, in line but down from 0.8%. Construction spending was 0.9% against a flat consensus. Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds at 3.7%. CFTC positioning for the week shows speculators adding to dollar-positive bets across the majors: euro net short widened to 63.3K from 52.3K, Canadian dollar to 78.7K short from 53.2K, Australian dollar to 63.2K short from 46.8K, sterling to 91.1K short; yen longs were trimmed to 55.4K from 72.0K. Gold net longs eased to 218.6K, crude longs fell to 109.5K from 141.1K, and S&P 500 net shorts grew to 142.5K.
Energy and the Middle East backdrop
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers called the US-Iran war an economic "disaster" in an ABC interview, blaming it for higher inflation and borrowing costs globally and for weighing on global growth. The RBA has raised rates to a 15-year high citing elevated energy prices tied to the conflict alongside domestic capacity pressure. Chalmers said rising global bond yields would add "some billions of dollars" to Australia's debt-servicing costs, rejected the idea that government spending is the main inflation driver, and said Australia is not anticipating a recession. WTI sits at 91.26, down 1.73%, with Brent at 102.72. A separate headline has Goldman estimating a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%.
Smaller items
Nike's quarter is in here as a full read: revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion, missing by $110 million, EPS $0.48 beat by four cents, gross margin up 60bp to 42.8% on lower warehousing and logistics costs. Greater China revenue fell 22% year over year, 26% in constant currency, to $1.18 billion, with wholesale down 28%, as the company deliberately pulls back on promotions and tightens digital distribution. Nike Direct fell 8% with digital down 13%; North America was the only major market to grow. The stock closed at 33.87, down 3.64%. Elsewhere, there's an ECB succession thread running: Merz is reportedly meeting frontrunners for Lagarde's job, and Italy has publicly sought clarity on the rumours about her future. The rest of the list is largely routine calendar entries, Fed speaker notices, and a heavy volume of gold and FX chart posts that repeat the levels covered above.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant fact going into this week is Friday's September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against consensus near 84,000-89,000, with private payrolls at 46,000 versus 85,000 expected and government employment falling 17,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, participation ticked up to 61.8%, and U6 actually fell to 7.6%. Wages cooled more than expected: average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year over year versus 3.2%. Manufacturing payrolls added 9,000, average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted job growth over the prior three months was revised a little softer, and framed the report as not really changing the story for a Fed whose senior officials had already signalled an October hike was not their base case, with the notable feature being the absence of wage pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report "about expected."
Rate-hike odds come out of the market
The repricing was immediate. Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi moved to an 85% chance of a hold in October. Remember the direction of travel here: the Fed hiked a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first increase since 2023, in a unanimous vote, with the dot plot flagging another rise later in 2026 and more into 2027. Fed speakers are not closing the door. Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, and Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause are on the table. Williams, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Barkin, Schmid, Collins, Logan and Waller all have speaking slots on the calendar.
Stocks rallied, bonds did not
Equities took the weak number as good news. The S&P 500 closed Friday up 0.73% at 7,722.72, the Nasdaq up 1.19% at 27,190.86 and near a record, the Dow up 0.49% at 51,176.96, and VIX fell 6.59% to 15.31. But the bond market went the other way. The 10-year finished at 5.277%, up 4.3bp, after initially dropping to 5.176% on the miss and then climbing 11.8bp to 5.294% by late afternoon; the 5-year rose 5bp to 5.055% and the 10-2 spread widened 15%. NaranjCapital's piece on the S&P flags exactly this tension: the index is about 1% below the 7,800 level that has capped it repeatedly, but the Dow fell 1.3% last week and roughly three quarters of S&P constituents closed lower, with a narrow group of tech and AI names doing the lifting. That author puts 7,600 as the floor and 7,300 below it, and expects yields and oil to drive the week given a quiet calendar. A separate SPX note from binibra37 marks 7,600-7,650 and 7,500 as support, 7,750-7,800 then 8,000 as resistance. Citi, per a headline, says a rates selloff without a corresponding Fed repricing is concerning.
Gold slips despite the dovish print
Gold spiked on the payrolls miss to around 4,248 and then gave it all back, closing the week at 4,140.52 spot with futures at 4,172.10, down 0.72%. Three full-read gold pieces tell the same story from different angles. RLinda attributes the pressure to a strong dollar, rising oil, and the Fed's hawkish stance, and sees a 4,110-4,220 range with support at 4,140, 4,110 and 4,100. ProjectSyndicate's zone map has price sitting on the lip of its weakest mapped demand at 4,119-4,142 after a slide from roughly 4,520, with the next real floors at 4,014-4,036 and 3,935-3,978, and the first overhead supply at 4,295-4,319; that author also notes 10- and 30-year yields at their highest since 2007 and 2004 and the dollar near a two-month high. sheeerren marks 4,143-4,150 as resistance tested twice and 4,108-4,115 as the untouched downside target. One dissenting full-read view, rarePie72880, argues for a move up toward 4,280. CFTC gold specs trimmed slightly to 218.6K from 225.9K.
The cross-asset tell from Friday
A SignalPilotLabs study of Friday is the most useful single read on the backdrop. DXY barely moved after the release, finishing 0.06% above its 12:30 UTC level with a total range of 0.27%, and VIX fell. What moved was oil and yields: crude bottomed at 88.48 and rose 3.8% to 91.81 within a few hours, while the 10-year reversed its initial drop and finished higher. Bitcoin jumped to 87,242 on the miss, its highest since 23 September, then closed the week at 84,476, 3.2% below that top. The author's framing is that a weak jobs number argues for cuts while rising oil and yields argue the opposite, and that gold and Bitcoin traded as if the rate-cut bet was being taken back while stocks ignored it. Also noted: Bybit open interest fell 8.5% from its post-release peak while the share of accounts long rose to 56.9%, and the 29 largest altcoins fell an average 3.3% in a single hour between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC with no macro move behind it.
Eurozone inflation jumps, ECB expectations shift
Euro zone September CPI came in at 3.8% year over year against 3.6-3.7% consensus and 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5% from 2.4%, in line. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned that inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, and Lagarde and Schnabel both had speaking slots. Austria printed 3.5% and Croatia 4.6% for September.
French sovereign risk widening
A separate and growing European problem: the French-German 10-year spread widened to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with French 5-year sovereign CDS at 81bp, a multiyear high. RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying the spread could reach 200bp in coming months, and Candriam's Nicolas Forest says French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels. PCM_fx builds a bearish EURGBP case on exactly this, pairing the widening French spread against a UK GDP revision higher. Nato_Financials is bearish EURUSD on the rate differential, with the Fed at 3.75-4.00% against an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%. Separately, Merz is reported meeting frontrunners for the Lagarde job, and Italy is seeking clarity on rumours about Lagarde's ECB future.
US data outside payrolls ran warm
The rest of the US data is not soft. ISM manufacturing was 54.5 against 54.8 expected, but new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7 both beat, and prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus flat expected. Factory orders were 0.1%, in line but down from 0.8%, with ex-transport at 0.3%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.7%. The Fed's balance sheet was $6,743B, with reserve balances down to $2.881T from $2.969T.
Oil, energy and the geopolitical overlay
WTI closed at 91.26, down 1.73%, with Brent at 102.72, up 0.46%, after the Friday afternoon rally described above. Headlines note Iran is keeping Hormuz closed with Washington talks deadlocked, and OPEC+ agreed to keep November output targets steady. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers called the US-Iran war an economic "disaster," blaming it for higher inflation and borrowing costs globally; the RBA has raised rates to a 15-year high citing energy prices tied to the Middle East alongside domestic capacity pressures. Chalmers said rising global bond yields would add "some billions" to Australia's debt-servicing costs, rejected the idea that government spending was the main inflation driver, and said Australia is not expecting a recession. Goldman separately estimates a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%. Crude speculative longs were cut to 109.5K from 141.1K.
Fed building investigation and the Powell headlines
Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over Fed building cost overruns, though he said the DOJ could investigate if the Fed's own internal audit finds wrongdoing. Trump posted on Truth Social calling the reports "total lies," saying newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an independent audit, and citing an Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget. Timiraos notes Trump restated his unhappiness with Powell and with coverage that leaned on his own attorney general's statements.
Positioning is heavily short the dollar's counterparts
The CFTC data released Friday shows speculative shorts extended across most of the majors: GBP -91.1K from -82.6K, CAD -78.7K from -53.2K, EUR -63.3K from -52.3K, AUD -63.2K from -46.8K, NZD -17.3K from -11.4K. Yen longs were cut to 55.4K from 72.0K, Swiss franc shorts trimmed slightly to -24.6K, and Brazilian real longs grew to 60.5K. On the index side, S&P 500 net shorts deepened to -142.5K from -133.2K while Nasdaq 100 longs eased to 51.2K.
Nike's China problem, read in full
One single-name piece worth flagging since it's the one company story read in full here: Nike fell 3.64% to 33.87 on heavy volume. Q1 revenue fell 4% year over year to $11.2bn, missing by $110m, while EPS of $0.48 beat by four cents and gross margin improved 60bp to 42.8% on lower warehousing and logistics costs. Greater China revenue plunged 22%, or 26% in constant currency, to $1.18bn with wholesale down 28%, which the author attributes to Nike deliberately pulling back on promotions and tightening digital distribution. Nike Direct fell 8% with digital down 13%; North America was the only major market to grow. Running, football, training and basketball each grew at a high single-digit rate. The piece also notes Kylian Mbappé ended a two-decade Nike partnership to join On, and that management admitted oversupplying Jordan retros and is cutting launch volumes deliberately.
The rest
The remainder is mostly routine calendar prints and chart posts without new substance: Baker Hughes rig count at 598 from 599, bill auctions at 3.990% and 3.890%, Singapore manufacturing PMI 51.7, Hong Kong retail sales 5.6%, Italian retail sales 0.3%, Brazil industrial production -0.6%, Spanish unemployment change 23.6K, and India's FX reserves down to $747.56bn from $765.90bn. Among the full-read chart posts, john12's SOXL note argues the semi rally will not last unless the 2-year drops to 4.50% and the Fed confirms cuts; KhayamBahadar's Netflix post simply flags a support area and names earnings, interest rates and the Nasdaq 100 as the things to watch; El_Operador07's DXY and EURUSD notes offer general commentary on pre-election dollar uncertainty and European energy costs without specifics.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant item is the September jobs report, and it was weak across the board. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against consensus of 89,000 (some feeds cite 84,000) and a prior 133,000. Private payrolls added just 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, government shed 17,000, manufacturing added 9,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, above the 4.1% consensus, while the participation rate ticked up to 61.8% from 61.6% and U6 eased to 7.6% from 7.7%. Wages cooled: average hourly earnings +0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year on year against 3.2%. Average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted the prior three months were revised a little softer, and framed the report as not changing the story much, since senior Fed officials had already signalled this week that an October hike was not their base case. His follow-up line is that the weak report clears the path for a pause.
Rate-hike pricing comes out
Note the direction of the debate here: the market has been pricing the possibility of a hike, not a cut. After the report, Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi moved to an 85% chance the Fed holds in October. Headlines through the session read the same way, stocks rallying and settling higher as hike concerns eased, the dollar slipping on weak US data, and gold and silver firmer as Treasury yields fell. Kitco tied the metals bid directly to lower yields, trimmed October hike odds and safe-haven demand. Fed speakers were everywhere: Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, Goolsbee said a hike and a pause are both on the table, and Logan, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Cook, Jefferson, Waller, Schmid and Collins all had scheduled remarks. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected.
Other US data, and a hot ISM prices print
The rest of the US calendar leaned firm, which cuts against the payrolls story. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both beating, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus a flat consensus. Jobless claims stayed low at 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000. Factory orders were in line at 0.1% but down from 0.8%, with durables ex-transport at 0.2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sat at 3.7%, unchanged. Fed balance sheet 6,743B, reserve balances 2.881T, down from 2.969T.
Euro zone inflation surges, ECB and France in focus
Euro zone September CPI accelerated to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6-3.7% consensus and well up from 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5% from 2.4%, in line. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, and Austria printed 3.5%, Croatia 4.6%. Separately, French government bonds are under real pressure: the 10-year spread over Germany widened to around 150-152 basis points, described in the feed as the widest since 2011-2012, with five-year French sovereign CDS at 81 basis points, a multiyear high. RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying the spread could reach 200 basis points; Candriam's Nicolas Forest says French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels. Running alongside that is the ECB leadership story, with Merz reported by Bloomberg to be meeting frontrunners for the Lagarde job and Italy seeking clarity on rumours about her future.
CFTC positioning, week over week
The weekly CFTC speculative net positions came through the economic calendar as data lines only, no commentary attached. Dollar shorts against the majors got bigger almost everywhere: euro -63.3K from -52.3K, sterling -91.1K from -82.6K, Canadian dollar -78.7K from -53.2K, Aussie -63.2K from -46.8K, kiwi -17.3K from -11.4K. Yen longs were trimmed to 55.4K from 72.0K and Swiss franc shorts shrank slightly to -24.6K. In commodities and index futures, crude longs fell hard to 109.5K from 141.1K, gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, silver to 22.1K, copper to 85.4K, corn to 509.5K and soybeans to 256.9K, while wheat went deeper short at -16.5K from -7.4K and natural gas shorts grew to -231.0K. S&P 500 net short widened to -142.5K from -133.2K and Nasdaq 100 longs slipped to 51.2K.
Powell renovation probe and Trump
Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg News he is not reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed chair Jerome Powell over the building cost overruns, but said the DOJ could investigate if the Fed's own internal audit turns up evidence of wrongdoing. Trump posted on Truth Social calling reports on the matter lies, said newly confirmed Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an independent audit, and cited this week's Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule. Timiraos notes Trump also said he was unhappy with coverage that leaned on his own attorney general's statements.
The rest is retail chart commentary
The bulk of the remaining items are TradingView posts, mostly gold around the NFP print with assorted level calls, plus dollar pairs and index charts. Two were read in full and amount to one trader's view each: a SOXL long arguing the rally will not hold unless the 2-year yield drops to 4.50 and the Fed confirms a cut, and a gold post noting XAUUSD tapped the 4-hour 50 EMA after the payrolls release, reversed to about 4130, and the author looking for a move toward the 100 EMA and a gap near 4280. Nothing in that group is news. Also in the list but quiet: Baker Hughes rigs at 598 total and 456 oil, Japan's Tokyo CPI entries carrying consensus only, and Spanish, Italian and Brazilian national data.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant item is the September US jobs report, and it came in well under consensus. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against an expected 84,000 to 89,000, after 133,000 previously. Private payrolls added just 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, and government employment fell 17,000 after a 44,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, with consensus at 4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6% and U6 edged down to 7.6%. Wages cooled: average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year over year versus 3.2% expected and 3.1% prior. Manufacturing payrolls added 9,000, average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted the prior three months were revised a little softer, and framed the report as not really changing the Fed story, with the most notable feature being the absence of wage or labour-market inflation pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected.
Rate-hike odds priced out
The unusual feature of this backdrop is that the debate has been about a possible Fed hike, not a cut, and the payrolls print took that off the table for October. Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi odds on an October hold jumped to 85%. Headlines across the session describe stocks rallying, the dollar retreating and gold and silver rising as Treasury yields fell, with Kitco tying the metals move directly to lower yields and trimmed October hike expectations plus safe-haven demand. Fed speakers this week leaned the same way before the data: Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, while Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause are on the table. Separately, Citi flagged that a rates selloff happening without any Fed repricing is concerning. There is a heavy Fed speaking calendar around all of this, with Logan, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Jefferson, Cook and Waller all listed.
Other US data points the other way
The rest of the US data is firmer than the payrolls number. ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.5 against 54.8 expected and 54.6 prior, but the prices paid component jumped to 77.9 versus 72.9 expected and 71.1 before, with new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7, both above consensus. Construction spending rose 0.9% against a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000 versus 1,730,000, both below forecast. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.7%, unchanged. Factory orders were 0.1% in line, down from 0.8%, with durables ex-transport at 0.2%. The Fed's balance sheet stands at 6,743 billion, reserve balances at 2.881 trillion, down from 2.969 trillion.
Euro zone inflation accelerates
Euro zone September inflation jumped to 3.8% year over year, above the 3.6% to 3.7% consensus and well up from 3.2% in August, per Eurostat. Core rose to 2.5% from 2.4%, matching expectations. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB rate hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned that inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, though he also said soaring yields may curb the inflation impact of expensive energy. Austria's September inflation came in at 3.5% and Croatia's at 4.6%, in line with forecasts.
French bond spreads at crisis-era levels
France's 10-year yield spread over Germany widened to roughly 150 to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011 to 2012, on fiscal and political concerns. Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest said French debt is now trading near European debt-crisis levels, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell said the spread could reach 200 basis points in coming months. The cost of insuring French government debt hit a multiyear high, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81 basis points. European shares edged higher after that bonds-driven selloff.
ECB succession chatter
A cluster of headlines points at the top of the ECB: Bloomberg reports Merz will meet frontrunners for the Lagarde job as the race heats up, and Italy has repeatedly sought clarity on rumours about Lagarde's departure. These are headline-only items, so there is no detail here beyond the fact that the question is live.
Fed building probe and Warsh
A Trump Truth Social post calls reporting on the Federal Reserve building renovation investigation false, and states that newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an in-depth independent audit, that Attorney General Todd Blanche said DOJ will investigate any evidence of wrongdoing, and that an Inspector General report this week found the project hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule, blaming Jerome Powell. Separately, Timiraos relays that Blanche told Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal investigation into Powell, but that if the Fed's own internal audit finds evidence of wrongdoing, DOJ could investigate.
CFTC positioning
The CFTC speculative net position items were read in full, but the underlying pages carried no article text beyond calendar boilerplate, so the figures are only what the lines themselves state. Across FX, shorts deepened against the dollar nearly everywhere: EUR to -63.3K from -52.3K, GBP to -91.1K from -82.6K, AUD to -63.2K from -46.8K, CAD to -78.7K from -53.2K, NZD to -17.3K from -11.4K. CHF shorts trimmed slightly to -24.6K, yen longs cut to 55.4K from 72.0K, BRL longs grew to 60.5K. In equity index futures, the S&P 500 net short deepened to -142.5K from -133.2K while the Nasdaq 100 long was trimmed to 51.2K from 56.1K. Commodity longs came off broadly: crude to 109.5K from 141.1K, gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, silver to 22.1K from 25.4K, copper to 85.4K, corn to 509.5K, soybeans to 256.9K. Natural gas shorts deepened to -231.0K and wheat shorts to -16.5K from -7.4K.
Odds and ends
Baker Hughes total rig count slipped to 598 from 599, with oil rigs up one to 456. Natural gas storage built 64B against 63B expected. Goldman Sachs estimates a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%, cushioned by inventories and alternative suppliers. A BoE survey shows UK firms seeing smaller price rises with wage growth steady. Brazil industrial production fell 0.6% against 0.1% expected. Italian retail sales rose 0.3% versus -0.1% expected, Spanish unemployment rose 23.6K versus 17.6K expected, Singapore manufacturing PMI 51.7. China and India were on holiday. The large remainder of this section is retail TradingView chart commentary, mostly on gold and NFP positioning, which carries no news content.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant story is the September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against a consensus near 84,000 (Investing.com's roundup cites an 89,000 estimate), the slowest monthly gain of the year, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Private payrolls added only 46,000 while government employment fell 17,000, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year on year. JPMorgan's Michael Feroli put the three-month average at 51,000, roughly breakeven against labor supply growth, and said the wage deceleration should reassure the Fed that the economy is not overheating.
October hike odds collapse
This is a tightening cycle, and the data took an October hike largely off the table. CME FedWatch moved to roughly 22% odds of a quarter-point hike versus about 78% for a hold, Kalshi priced an 85% chance of a pause, and fed-dated swaps no longer price one full hike this year. Feroli said it would now take a very strong CPI to make October live and still looks for a December hike. Diane Swonk of KPMG expects a skip in October and a resumption in December, warning the inflation data into that meeting will be hot on energy. RSM's Joseph Brusuelas sees no hike in October, one 25bp move in December and another in March 2027. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial said there is zero chance of an October hike and that September should have been a hold. Nick Timiraos framed it as a report that doesn't change the story, since senior officials had already signalled this week that an October hike wasn't the base case.
Fed speakers pulling in both directions
Officials are not uniformly dovish. Austan Goolsbee told Fox Business that the labor data show a steady market and that too-high inflation is the bigger priority, saying there is "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" and he wants evidence pointing back to 2%. Headlines also have Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan calling for 50bp or more of further hikes to keep inflation from settling above target, and Governor Cook flagging the AI buildout as the top inflation risk for 2027. A heavy speaker calendar follows: Williams, Bowman, Jefferson, Barkin, Schmid, Collins, Waller and Logan.
Stocks up, bonds still heavy
Equities took the weak data as good news. The S&P 500 closed at 7,724.06, up 0.75%, the Nasdaq up 1.19% and the Dow up 0.49%, with VIX down 6.47% to 15.33. Bonds did not follow through: the 10-year yield was last up 4.4bp at 5.282%, the 5-year up to 5.064% and the 30-year at 5.631%, and the week was still a loss on the bond rout. Dollar index 101.65, essentially flat. Gold futures 4,174 and silver 60.9, both modestly firmer, with Kitco tying the bid to lower yields and trimmed hike odds.
Other US data, mostly firm
The rest of the US numbers sit awkwardly against the payrolls miss. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both above consensus, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000. Atlanta Fed GDPNow held at 3.7%. The Fed's balance sheet slipped to $6,743B from $6,748B, reserve balances to $2.881T from $2.969T.
Europe inflation hot, France under stress
Eurozone September inflation accelerated to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.2%, with core at 2.5%. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December, per headline. Separately, French risk is widening: the 10-year spread over Germany reached 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81bp, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying it could reach 200bp. On top of that, Italy's Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said Rome wants clarification on speculation that Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB before her term ends, adding he can't read her intentions but that the uncertainty should be resolved, and that Italy has no candidate for the job.
Japan inflation and the BOJ
Tokyo CPI accelerated in September, with core consensus at 2.4% against 1.8% prior and headline previously 1.9%, and headlines tie it to a firmer yen and a stronger case for further BOJ hikes. The jobs-to-applications ratio was expected unchanged at 1.18, and the monetary base was seen at -16.3% versus -15.7%.
DOJ drops Powell probe
The Justice Department is not reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns on the central bank's building renovation. Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg he hasn't ruled out continuing to look at the project's oversight if evidence of wrongdoing emerges. The Fed's Inspector General said Wednesday it found no grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct, though its finding of lax oversight drew a fresh call from President Trump for Powell's resignation. Powell has stayed on as a governor since leaving the chair in May.
Rest of the list
Most of the remainder is TradingView chart commentary around gold, the dollar and the index futures ahead of and after NFP, plus routine calendar prints. Nothing there adds to the picture above. One Citi note appears twice in headline form, saying a rates selloff without a corresponding Fed repricing is concerning.
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