Long-end yields at multi-decade highs
The dominant story into the open is the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield printed a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297%, up about 5.9bp on the day per the tape, and the 30-year hit a fresh 22-year high at 5.5185%, up roughly 4.9bp. Treasury volatility is moving with it: the MOVE index is up nearly 30% on the week, its biggest weekly jump in over a year, attributed in that item to hotter economic data and elevated oil prices driving a repricing of Fed tightening. The 7-year note auction cleared at 5.085% against 4.512% at the prior sale, and short bills also drifted up (8-week 3.990% vs 3.920%, 4-week 3.850% vs 3.820%). Despite that, equities finished the week higher, with the quote widget on one of the read pages showing the Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% and VIX down 5.11% at 14.87, the dollar index off 0.26% at 100.755 and WTI down 2.29% at 92.44.
Consumer sentiment slides, inflation expectations jump
The University of Michigan final September reading came in at 48.1, above the 47.8 preliminary but well below August's 51.7. Current conditions fell to 50.9 and expectations to 46.3, both from roughly 51.5-51.9 prior. The more consequential line is inflation expectations: the 1-year outlook jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, and the 5-year to 3.4% from 3.3%. Kitco flagged gold hitting a $4,254 low straight after the print, last trading at $4,265.30, down 0.20%.
Activity data still firm
Against the weak sentiment read, the hard data held up. Durable goods orders were flat at 0.0% versus a -0.3% consensus, core came in softer at 0.3% against 0.6% expected, but non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft jumped 1.6% from 0.6%. New home sales at 684K beat the 615K consensus. Initial claims were 197K versus 201K expected, continuing claims 1,719K against 1,750K. KC Fed manufacturing rose to 20 from 17. Atlanta Fed GDPNow ticked down only marginally to 5.0% from 5.1%. That combination of resilient activity and rising inflation expectations is what the yield move is tracking.
Fed speak and the political overlay
Hammack is the loudest voice in the list, warning that persistent inflation becoming embedded in public expectations is the biggest risk, and noting that with growth holding up and the labour market stable, strong demand and capital spending could keep pressure on. She separately said the bond yield surge is not about lost confidence in inflation. Schmid appears repeatedly on a different theme, questioning whether the AI "ecosystem" is becoming too big to fail. Williams and Barkin also spoke. On the political side, Kevin Hassett publicly questioned why the Fed is raising rates at all, calling it an "unusually partisan Fed" that risks "hiking unwisely." Separately, Reuters reported the Fed is preparing to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank regulation, with the top threshold potentially moving from $700 billion to around $960 billion.
UBS on emerging markets under a hawkish Fed
UBS argues EM assets can absorb tighter US policy better than in past cycles. The note frames the backdrop: the Fed hiked 25bp in September, its first increase since 2023, and signalled rates could stay above 4% through 2027, with markets already pricing roughly three more hikes by mid-2027. UBS itself expects only one more 25bp move. Their case rests on stronger external balances, improving sovereign credit quality, and EM central banks having more room to set policy independently, plus a dollar whose role as a shock amplifier has faded as fiscal concerns cut against safe-haven demand. On equities they expect EM earnings per share up more than 60% in 2026 and nearly 20% in 2027, with MSCI EM at about 10 times forward earnings. They call Fed tightening "not an insurmountable obstacle" for high-yielding EM currencies but flag narrowing yield differentials, and list rapid Treasury yield increases, weaker global growth and geopolitical escalation as the main risks.
CFTC positioning turns more defensive
The weekly speculative positioning data shows dollar-negative bets being unwound across the board. Net shorts deepened in EUR (-52.3K from -27.0K), GBP (-82.6K from -58.7K), CAD (-53.2K from -37.6K) and AUD (-46.8K from -38.9K); NZD flipped outright short at -11.4K from +10.5K; the yen long was cut hard to 72.0K from 120.4K. CHF shorts trimmed slightly to -26.8K and BRL longs eased to 54.2K. In equity futures the split is notable: S&P 500 net shorts deepened to -133.2K from -100.5K while Nasdaq 100 net longs rose to 56.1K from 33.7K. In commodities, copper longs built to 90.5K from 75.1K and crude to 141.1K from 135.9K, gold longs eased slightly to 225.9K from 230.3K, silver was essentially unchanged at 25.4K, and wheat flipped to a -7.4K net short from +1.2K.
Oil, Hormuz and the geopolitical bid
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, and expects bombing could resume after the midterms. Headlines also point to continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Crude was lower on the day even so, and two separate Nasdaq pieces tie the softer dollar to the decline in crude. Baker Hughes rigs edged up, total 599 from 595 and oil rigs 455 against a 453 consensus.
Overseas central banks and data
Bailey said high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold, and separately described AI as a positive supply shock; Morgan Stanley changed its BoE call to hikes in November and February. UK CBI distributive trades came in at -55 against -42 expected. German GfK consumer climate dropped to -30.6 versus -27.1 consensus, while Spanish GDP was in line at 0.7% and euro zone M3 at 3.5%. Italian auction yields jumped sharply, the 6-month BOT to 2.873% from 2.472% and the 2-year CTZ to 3.640% from 3.020%, and France's central bank chief said the country can't count on the ECB to fix its debt problems. Canadian data was soft across the board: retail sales -0.7%, wholesale -1.5%, and a budget balance of -4.77B from +0.99B. Brazil's mid-month CPI overshot at 0.70% against 0.53% expected ahead of a tight election. China and South Korea were on holiday.
Everything else
The rest of the section is largely duplicated calendar entries showing consensus-only versions of the same releases, plus a long run of TradingView gold and FX chart posts clustered around the $4,250-$4,300 area. One positioning note worth flagging: Citi says it remains overweight US equities and would buy the next pullback, expecting AI to stay the key driver despite higher oil, rates and Fed uncertainty.
Long-end Treasury yields at multi-decade highs
The dominant story is the bond market. Headline flashes put the 10-year note at a fresh 19-year high of 5.2297%, last up 5.92 basis points at 5.221%, and the 30-year at a fresh 22-year high of 5.5185%, up 4.86bp at 5.511%. An earlier flash had yields rising after the durable goods data, with the 10-year up 2.36bp at 5.186% and the 30-year up 1.85bp at 5.481%, so the move built through the session. A separate item reports Treasury volatility heading for its biggest weekly jump in over a year, with the MOVE Index up nearly 30%, attributed there to hotter economic data and elevated oil prices driving a repricing of Fed tightening. The 7-year note auction stopped at 5.085% against 4.512% previously, which tells you how quickly the repricing has run. Despite all that, headlines from IBD and Nasdaq say stocks ended the week higher and the dollar fell as crude declined.
Michigan sentiment drops, inflation expectations jump
Final September Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 48.1, above the 47.8 consensus but well below August's 51.7. Current conditions were 50.9 in line, expectations 46.3 against 45.8 expected and 51.5 prior. The inflation side is the part that matters here: 1-year expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, and the 5-year reading ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%. Kitco reported gold printed a $4,254 low on the release and was last at $4,265.30, down 0.20%.
Durable goods and the rest of the US data
Durable goods orders were flat at 0.0% against a -0.3% consensus, with core orders up 0.3% versus 0.6% expected, durables ex-defense up 0.1% after 1.4%, and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft up 1.6% after 0.6%. New home sales came in strong at 684K against 615K consensus. Jobless claims stayed low, 197K initial against 201K expected, continuing claims 1,719K. KC Fed manufacturing rose to 20 from 17 and the composite to 14 from 10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 5.0%, a shade under the 5.1% consensus. That is a set of numbers consistent with the tightening repricing described above.
Fed speakers and the political pushback
Beth Hammack features in several items: she warns inflation risks remain high and that the biggest danger is persistent inflation becoming embedded in public expectations, noting growth is holding up and the labor market is stable while strong demand and capital spending could keep pressure on. Separately she is reported as saying the bond yield surge is not about lost confidence in inflation. Schmid is quoted asking whether the AI "ecosystem" is becoming too big to fail. Williams, Barkin and Schmid all had scheduled appearances. On the other side, Nick Timiraos relays Kevin Hassett questioning why the Fed is raising rates at all, blaming an "unusually partisan Fed" and saying the market is worried about "hiking unwisely." Also headline-only: the Fed is reported preparing to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank regulation, with the top threshold possibly moving from $700 billion to around $960 billion.
UBS on emerging markets under a hawkish Fed
UBS argues EM assets can absorb tighter US policy better than in past cycles. The context they give: the Fed raised 25bp in September, its first hike since 2023, and signalled rates above 4% through 2027, with markets already pricing roughly three further hikes by mid-2027. UBS itself expects only one more 25bp increase. Their reasoning is stronger external balances, improving sovereign credit quality, and more room for EM central banks to act independently, plus a dollar that works less as a shock amplifier now that fiscal concerns cut against safe-haven demand. On equities they expect EM EPS up more than 60% in 2026 and nearly 20% in 2027, with MSCI EM at about 10 times forward earnings. They call Fed tightening "not an insurmountable obstacle" for high-yielding EM currencies but flag narrowing yield differentials, rapid Treasury yield increases, weaker global growth and geopolitical escalation as the risks.
CFTC positioning for the week
The speculative net position data shows shorts building broadly against the dollar's counterparts. EUR went to -52.3K from -27.0K, GBP to -82.6K from -58.7K, CAD to -53.2K from -37.6K, AUD to -46.8K from -38.9K, and NZD flipped to -11.4K from +10.5K. JPY longs were cut to 72.0K from 120.4K, CHF shorts trimmed slightly to -26.8K, BRL longs eased to 54.2K. In equity futures, S&P 500 net shorts deepened to -133.2K from -100.5K while Nasdaq 100 net longs grew to 56.1K from 33.7K. Commodities: copper longs up to 90.5K from 75.1K, crude to 141.1K from 135.9K, soybeans to 281.6K, gold trimmed to 225.9K from 230.3K, silver flat at 25.4K, corn down to 535.8K, wheat flipped short at -7.4K, natural gas shorts still large at -216.5K. Note the article pages behind these entries carried no commentary, only the calendar figures.
Bank of England repricing
Several items converge on the UK. Bailey says high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold, and separately describes AI as a positive supply shock. Morgan Stanley changed its BoE call and now sees hikes in November and February. Headline-only pieces frame the Bank as possibly struggling to hold rates given energy costs. UK data was weak: CBI distributive trades at -55 against -42 expected, and GfK consumer confidence consensus at -16 from -14. German GfK consumer climate also missed badly at -30.6 versus -27.1 expected.
Oil, Hormuz and commodities
The Wall Street Journal, via a headline flash, reports Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, with bombing possibly resuming after the midterms. Crude was nonetheless lower on the day per the quote furniture in the UBS piece, WTI at 92.44 down 2.29% and Brent 104.45 down 2.02%, with gold futures at 4,320.50 up 0.52%. Baker Hughes total rig count rose to 599 from 595, oil rigs to 455 from 452 against a 453 consensus. Natural gas storage built 53B against 50B expected.
Elsewhere
Brazil mid-month CPI ran hot at 0.70% against 0.53% expected and -0.40% prior, flagged in one headline as arriving ahead of a tight election. Canada was soft across the board: retail sales -0.7%, core retail -0.7% against -0.5% expected, wholesale sales -1.5%, and a budget balance of -4.77B after +0.99B, with manufacturing sales the one bright spot at +1.1%. Euro zone M3 grew 3.5% in line, private sector loans 3.1%, corporate loans slowing to 4.2% from 4.4%. Spanish GDP was 0.7% as expected. Italian auction yields jumped, the 6-month BOT to 2.873% from 2.472% and the 2-year CTZ to 3.640% from 3.020%. Also headline-only: France's central bank chief saying France can't count on the ECB to fix its debt problems, Japanese bank stocks rising with the yield surge and rate hike bets, and Citi saying it remains overweight US equities and would buy the next pullback, with AI as the key driver. China and South Korea were on holiday. The many TradingView gold and FX chart posts in the list are technical setups rather than news.
Long-end yields at multi-decade highs
The dominant story is the bond selloff. The 10-year Treasury note hit a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297%, last quoted up 5.92 basis points at 5.221%, and the 30-year hit a fresh 22-year high at 5.5185%, up 4.86bp at 5.511%. Yields stepped up through the day, first after the durable goods print (10-year at 5.186%, 30-year at 5.481% at that point) and again later. One wire item notes Treasury volatility heading for its biggest weekly jump in over a year, with the MOVE index up nearly 30%, attributing the repricing to hotter economic data and elevated oil prices, with bets shifting toward Fed tightening. The 7-year note auction cleared at 5.085% against 4.512% previously, and short bills also drifted up, 8-week at 3.990% from 3.920% and 4-week at 3.850% from 3.820%. Equities still finished the week higher despite the yield spike, per Investor's Business Daily, with the jobs report and inflation data ahead.
Consumer sentiment slides, inflation expectations jump
The final September University of Michigan reading came in at 48.1, above the 47.8 consensus but well down from August's 51.7. Current conditions fell to 50.9 from 51.9 and expectations to 46.3 from 51.5. The inflation side is the part that got attention: 1-year expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, and the 5-year to 3.4% from 3.3%. Kitco reported gold hit a $4,254 low after the data and last traded at $4,265.30, down 0.20%, having held near $4,300 earlier in the session on the back of resilient durable goods.
Activity data still firm
Durable goods orders came in flat at 0.0% against a -0.3% consensus, with core orders up 0.3% versus 0.6% expected, and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft up 1.6% from 0.6%. New home sales were 684K against 615K expected. Jobless claims stayed tight at 197K versus 201K consensus, continuing claims 1,719K. The KC Fed manufacturing index rose to 20 from 17, composite to 14 from 10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow stands at 5.0%, just under the 5.1% consensus and prior. That combination, firm growth with deteriorating sentiment and rising inflation expectations, is what's driving the hawkish repricing.
Fed speakers lean hawkish, Hassett pushes back
Beth Hammack warned the biggest risk is persistent inflation becoming embedded in public expectations, noting growth is holding up and the labour market is stable while strong demand and capital spending could keep pressure on. Separately she said the bond yield surge is not about lost inflation confidence. Kansas City's Schmid raised a different question, whether the AI "ecosystem" is becoming too big to fail. On the other side, Kevin Hassett questioned why the Fed is raising rates at all, calling it an "unusually partisan Fed" and saying the market is worried about "hiking unwisely." Also reported: the Fed is preparing to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank regulation, with the highest possibly moving from $700bn to around $960bn, per Reuters via a headline item.
CFTC positioning: dollar shorts covered across the board
The weekly CFTC speculative net positions all show the same direction against the dollar. GBP went to -82.6K from -58.7K, EUR to -52.3K from -27.0K, CAD to -53.2K from -37.6K, AUD to -46.8K from -38.9K, and NZD flipped to -11.4K from +10.5K. JPY longs were cut hard, to 72.0K from 120.4K. CHF was slightly less short at -26.8K from -29.0K, BRL a touch lower at 54.2K. In equities, S&P 500 net short deepened to -133.2K from -100.5K while Nasdaq 100 net long grew to 56.1K from 33.7K. Commodities: copper long jumped to 90.5K from 75.1K, crude to 141.1K from 135.9K, soybeans to 281.6K from 261.2K, gold eased to 225.9K from 230.3K, silver flat at 25.4K, corn slightly lower at 535.8K, wheat flipped short to -7.4K from +1.2K, natural gas still heavily short at -216.5K. These were read in full but the source pages carry only the figures, no commentary or explanation.
BoE seen hiking, Bailey on energy costs
Morgan Stanley changed its Bank of England call and now sees hikes in November and February. Bailey said high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold, and separately described AI as a positive supply shock. A related headline notes the BoE may struggle to hold rates amid high energy costs. UK data was soft: the CBI distributive trades survey came in at -55 against -42 expected and -48 prior, and GfK consumer confidence was seen at -16 from -14.
Iran, oil and the Strait of Hormuz
Per a WSJ report relayed on the wire, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, with bombing possibly resuming after the midterms. Two separate market wraps had the dollar falling as crude prices declined. Baker Hughes total rig count rose to 599 from 595, oil rigs to 455 against 453 expected.
Europe and the rest
German GfK consumer climate came in notably weak at -30.6 against -27.1 expected and -26.8 prior. Spanish GDP was 0.7%, in line. Euro zone M3 at 3.5% and private sector loans at 3.1% were essentially as expected. Italian auctions repriced sharply higher, 6-month BOT at 2.873% from 2.472% and 2-year CTZ at 3.640% from 3.020%. France's central bank chief said France can't count on the ECB to fix its debt problems. Brazil's mid-month CPI ran hot at 0.70% against 0.53% expected, after -0.40%, ahead of a tight election. Canada was soft across the board: retail sales -0.7%, core retail -0.7%, wholesale sales -1.5%, and the budget balance swung to -4.77B from +0.99B. China and South Korea were on holiday.
The rest is noise
The remainder of the section is largely repeated calendar entries listed twice (once as consensus, once as actual) and a long run of TradingView gold and FX chart posts, mostly arguing levels around $4,250 to $4,370 on XAUUSD. Nothing in those carries data beyond what's above. One positioning note worth flagging: Citi said it remains overweight US equities and would add on a pullback, expecting AI to stay the key driver.
Long yields at multi-decade highs
The dominant story into the open is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury note hit a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297%, last quoted up 5.92 basis points at 5.221%, and the 30-year hit a 22-year high at 5.5185%, up 4.86bp at 5.511%. Treasury volatility is running hot with it: the MOVE index is heading for its biggest weekly jump in over a year, up nearly 30%, which the feed attributes to hotter data and elevated oil prices driving a sharp repricing toward Fed tightening. The 7-year note auction cleared at 5.085%, against 4.512% at the previous sale, and the short bills also drifted up, 4-week at 3.850% and 8-week at 3.990%. Investor's Business Daily notes the stock market still closed the week higher despite the yield spike, with the jobs report and inflation data ahead.
Michigan sentiment drops, inflation expectations jump
Final September Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 48.1, slightly above the 47.8 consensus but well down from August's 51.7. Current conditions were 50.9, in line, from 51.9; expectations 46.3 versus 45.8 expected, from 51.5. The inflation read is the part that matters here: 1-year expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, with 5-year at 3.4% from 3.3%. Gold printed a $4,254 low on the release and was last around $4,265.30, down 0.20% on the day per Kitco.
Activity data still firm
The growth side is not confirming the sentiment slump. Headline durable goods orders were flat at 0.0% against a -0.3% consensus, though core came in soft at 0.3% versus 0.6% expected, and non-defense capital goods ex-air rose 1.6% from 0.6%. New home sales hit 684K against 615K expected. Initial jobless claims were 197K versus 201K expected, with continuing claims at 1,719K, below the 1,750K consensus. KC Fed manufacturing rose to 20 from 17 and the composite to 14 from 10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 5.0%, a touch under the 5.1% consensus and prior. That combination, firm activity plus rising inflation expectations, is what the yield move is feeding on.
Fed voices and the political overlay
Beth Hammack dominated the Fed headlines, warning that the biggest risk is persistent inflation becoming embedded in public expectations, with growth holding up, the labor market stable, and strong demand and capital spending potentially keeping inflation elevated. Separately she said the bond yield surge is not about lost confidence in inflation. Schmid spoke twice on the calendar and in the news flow questioned whether the AI "ecosystem" is becoming too big to fail. Williams and Barkin also on the speaker list. Against that, Kevin Hassett publicly questioned why the Fed is raising rates at all, blaming an "unusually partisan Fed" and saying the market is worried about "hiking unwisely." On regulation, Reuters reports the Fed plans to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank oversight, with the top threshold potentially moving from $700 billion to around $960 billion. The Fed's balance sheet was little changed at $6,748B, reserve balances $2.969T.
CFTC positioning, dollar longs and an equity split
The full-text items in this batch were all CFTC speculative net position lines, and the pages behind them were empty Nasdaq calendar boilerplate, so the figures are all there is. Speculators pushed further against every major currency: EUR to -52.3K from -27.0K, GBP to -82.6K from -58.7K, CAD to -53.2K from -37.6K, AUD to -46.8K from -38.9K, NZD flipping to -11.4K from +10.5K, CHF slightly less short at -26.8K from -29.0K, and the yen long cut hard to 72.0K from 120.4K. BRL edged down to 54.2K. In equity futures the two indices went opposite ways: S&P 500 net short deepened to -133.2K from -100.5K while Nasdaq 100 net long grew to 56.1K from 33.7K. Commodities: copper long jumped to 90.5K from 75.1K, crude to 141.1K from 135.9K, gold eased to 225.9K from 230.3K, silver flat at 25.4K, natural gas still deeply short at -216.5K, corn 535.8K, soybeans 281.6K, wheat flipping to -7.4K from +1.2K, aluminium -0.8K. Baker Hughes total rigs rose to 599 from 595, oil rigs 455 against 453 expected.
UK rate call shifts hawkish
Bailey said high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold, and separately described AI as a positive supply shock. Morgan Stanley changed its BoE call and now sees hikes in November and February. A second piece flags that the Bank may struggle to hold rates given energy costs. The UK data is weak underneath that: CBI distributive trades at -55 against -42 expected and -48 prior, and GfK consumer confidence seen at -16 from -14.
Europe, Canada, Brazil
German GfK consumer climate deteriorated to -30.6 against -27.1 expected. Spanish GDP was 0.7%, in line. Euro area M3 grew 3.5%, private sector loans 3.1%, corporate loans slowing to 4.2% from 4.4%. Italian auction yields rose sharply, the 6-month BOT at 2.873% from 2.472% and the 2-year CTZ at 3.640% from 3.020%, and the Banque de France chief said France cannot count on the ECB to fix its debt problems. Canada was soft across the board: retail sales -0.7%, core -0.7% against -0.5% expected, wholesale sales -1.5%, and a budget balance of -4.77B after +0.99B. Brazil's mid-month CPI came in at 0.70% against 0.53% expected, an overshoot ahead of a tight election.
Oil and geopolitics
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, and expects bombing could resume after the midterms. Two Nasdaq pieces have the dollar slipping as crude prices decline, so the immediate price direction and the headline risk are pointing opposite ways here.
The rest
The remainder is largely TradingView chart commentary on gold around the $4,250 to $4,300 area, duplicate calendar entries, and routine regional prints. Citi's note in the feed says it remains overweight US equities and would add on a dip, expecting AI to stay the key driver.
Yields at multi-decade highs, the week's main story
The dominant macro fact into the open is the long end. Headlines flagged the 10-year Treasury hitting a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297%, up 5.92bp at 5.221%, and the 30-year a 22-year high at 5.5185%. Investing.com's own market panel had the 10-year later settling at 5.161 and the 30-year at 5.489, with the 10-2 spread widening 4.15bp to 31.32. One headline notes the MOVE index is up nearly 30% on the week, its biggest weekly jump in over a year, on a repricing of Fed tightening. A separate headline cites CIFC arguing the Fed is losing control of the long end to forces it doesn't set: heavy government borrowing, oil above $100, AI infrastructure spending and a global bond selloff. Equities took it in stride, with the S&P 500 up 0.49% at 7,741.83, the Dow up 0.93%, the Nasdaq up 0.48% and VIX down 5.17% to 14.86.
Hammack's inflation warning
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was the most-covered speaker, appearing in three separate items. At an event at her own bank she said the biggest inflation risk right now is that an inflationary mindset sets in, noting inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five years, and that "we need to make sure that policy is at a restrictive stance to help bring things back down to target." She said growth has held up and the labour market is stable, but flagged demand-side pressure and said capital expenditure will pressure inflation for a while. On the bond selloff specifically she pushed back on the inflation-fear reading: "it's real rates that have moved up more than the inflation expectations," and said expectations are "reasonably well anchored," with higher yields reflecting a solid outlook, competition for investor cash from strong tech-sector investment, and repricing of the policy path. She also said there are open long-term questions about what AI means for inflation.
The rest of the Fed chorus, and pushback from the White House
The hawkish tone was not hers alone. Headlines have New York Fed President John Williams saying the Fed can't ignore supply shocks with persistent price effects and needs to return inflation to target, with another headline pairing him and Anna Paulson signalling another hike may be needed — Paulson on "modest further tightening," Williams on a hike by year-end. Kansas City's Schmid asked publicly whether the AI ecosystem is becoming too big to fail. Against that, Nick Timiraos posted extended remarks from Kevin Hassett questioning the hikes outright: annualising the last three months of core gets you 2%, so "if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?" Hassett described Kevin Warsh as managing "an unusually partisan Fed," criticised Barr and Powell for not resigning when their terms as vice chair and chair ended, and warned that if the short rate goes to 6% because officials are "hiking unwisely" and stays there for two or three years, the two-year will follow by arbitrage. Market pricing per Barchart is a 66% chance of a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC; a headline says Kalshi now prices 2.4 hikes this year, up from about 2.1 earlier in the week, and Polymarket shows 98% on "no" for a single 2026 cut.
US data: strong capex, weak consumer, higher inflation expectations
August capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft, the capex proxy, rose 1.6% m/m against expectations of 0.6%, with July revised up to 0.6% from unchanged. New home sales came in at 684K versus 615K expected. Initial claims were 197K against 201K expected. The KC Fed manufacturing index rose to 20 from 17. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 5.1%. The soft spot is the consumer: final September Michigan sentiment was 48.1, which Barchart frames as an upward revision from a 47.5 expectation, while Kitco and Walter Bloomberg frame it against August's 51.7 as a clear slide. Both note one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%.
Dollar lower as crude falls, yen squeezed
The dollar index was down 0.31% at 100.717, pressured by roughly a 1% drop in WTI, which eases inflation expectations, with losses limited by the firm capex and sentiment data and Williams' hawkish line. WTI closed the Investing.com snapshot at 92.25, down 2.49%, Brent at 104.29, down 2.17%. EUR/USD was up 0.18%, capped by German October GfK consumer climate falling 3.8 to a five-month low of -30.6 against -27.2 expected, though the German Ifo business climate beat at 89.9 versus 89.1. USD/JPY fell 0.96% on yen short covering after PM Takaichi told President Trump the undervalued yen is a problem and Finance Minister Katayama said she would keep coordinating with Treasury Secretary Bessent, hinting at possible joint intervention; the 10-year JGB hit a 30-year high of 3.125%. Pricing is 46% for an ECB hike on 29 October and 31% for the BOJ on 30 October. A TradingView piece on euro and sterling futures argues the near-identical chart structures in both point to broad dollar strength rather than currency-specific weakness, with EUR futures near 1.14345 and GBP near 1.3257.
France's borrowing costs and the ECB question
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said France must do everything possible to avoid a sovereign debt crisis ahead of next year's presidential election, and that expecting the ECB to rescue it is "flawed reasoning." French 10-year yields have reached 4.7%, the highest since 2008, on fiscal and political uncertainty. Moulin said the state is having no trouble tapping the market but that rising debt-servicing costs risk a "gradual stranglehold" on public finances, and that the ECB's crisis tools only activate once a country has acted itself. The minority government sends its 2027 budget to parliament next Thursday.
Gold and the bull/bear split
Gold futures were up 0.68% at 4,327.15 and silver up 1.24% at 64.79, helped by the weaker dollar and softer crude, plus some safe-haven bid. Barchart notes gold ETF long holdings hit a 6.5-month high Thursday, silver ETF longs a 5.75-month high Tuesday, and that PBOC bullion reserves rose 650,000 ounces in August to 76.73 million troy ounces, the largest monthly increase in three years and a twenty-second straight month of buying. Headline-only items point the other way for the week: Investing.com has gold set for a weekly loss as oil fuels Fed hike bets, and Kitco had spot at $4,265.30, down 0.20%, after a $4,254 low on the sentiment data. The TradingView gold posts are mostly short-term chart setups and split in both directions; one of them sums up the tension plainly, calling gold technically bullish but fundamentally bearish with the dollar and 10-year both strong, and says to wait for core PCE, NFP and CPI.
Monday's calendar
Two identical Investing.com previews list Monday 28 September: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 9:30 ET (previous 11.6), 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 10:30 (previous 4.015% and 4.155%), and Richmond Fed's Barkin speaking at 12:30. The piece itself says the day lacks high-impact releases.
Odds and ends
Fed balance sheet data was near-flat at $6,748B from $6,747B, with reserve balances up to $2.969T from $2.921T. The Fed proposed a framework for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act, and separately, per a headline, is preparing to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank oversight, with the top threshold possibly moving from $700 billion to around $960 billion. Cathie Wood's ARK launched a blockchain-based fund after an SEC ruling. Central banks elsewhere sat still: the SNB held at 0.00%, Banxico at 6.5% on sticky core inflation, Egypt at 19%; Morgan Stanley changed its BoE call to hikes in November and February, and Bailey said high energy prices make holding rates harder while separately describing AI as a positive supply shock. In the cattle pits, live futures were up 60 cents to $1.72 at midday with North cash at $348-355 dressed and $222-223 live, feeders up $3.55 to $4.35, Choice boxes up $1.97 to $378.09, and week-to-date slaughter at 389,000 head, 31,000 below last week and 77,607 below the same week last year.
A note on the calendar stubs
A large block of the list is Nasdaq economic-calendar entries, including the whole CFTC speculative-positioning set and the UK GfK line. Where those were opened in full the page returned no data beyond what the headline already carries, so the prior figures in the item lines are all there is.
Yields at multi-decade highs, hike bets rising
The dominant story is the bond selloff. Headlines on the wire have the 10-year hitting a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297%, up 5.92bp to 5.221%, and the 30-year at a fresh 22-year high of 5.5185%. Quote boxes on the Investing.com pieces show the 10-year at 5.161 and the 30-year at 5.489 later in the session, so the long end backed off its highs into the close. One headline notes the MOVE index up nearly 30% on the week, the biggest weekly jump in over a year, attributed there to hotter data and high oil. Another headline-only item says Kalshi's implied count moved to 2.4 Fed hikes this year from about 2.1 earlier in the week, and a Polymarket line puts "one Fed cut in 2026" at No 98%. The Barchart dollar piece puts a 66% probability on a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC. This follows a 25bp hike delivered about ten days ago, per the TradingView FX note, with the Fed signalling another may follow.
Hammack on inflation and why yields are up
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack was the day's main Fed voice, and she made two separate points. On inflation, she said her biggest worry is that an inflationary mindset sets in after more than five years above the 2% target, that the Fed "needs to make sure that policy is at a restrictive stance," and that growth has held up while the labour market is stable. She flagged demand-side pressure and capital expenditure as forces that will keep pressure on prices for a while, and said there are open questions about what AI means for inflation. On the bond rout specifically, she said it is not an inflation-confidence problem: "it's real rates that have moved up more than the inflation expectations," with expectations "reasonably well anchored." She tied the move to a solid growth outlook, competition for investor cash from heavy tech investment, and repricing of the policy path. Headline-only items add that Anna Paulson and John Williams both signalled another hike may be needed, Paulson mentioning "modest further tightening," and that Kansas City's Schmid asked whether the AI ecosystem is becoming too big to fail.
Dollar and FX
Barchart's midday piece has the dollar index down 0.31%, pressured by WTI falling about 1%, which eases inflation expectations. Losses were limited by better-than-expected data and by Williams saying the Fed can't ignore persistent supply shocks and needs to get inflation back to target. EUR/USD was up 0.18%, helped by the weaker dollar and cheaper oil, but capped after German October GfK consumer climate fell 3.8 to a five-month low of -30.6 against expectations of -27.2. A 25bp ECB hike on 29 October is priced at 46%. USD/JPY fell 0.96%: PM Takaichi told Trump the undervalued yen is a problem, Finance Minister Katayama said she would keep coordinating with Treasury Secretary Bessent, raising the prospect of joint intervention, and the 10-year JGB hit a 30-year high of 3.125%. A 25bp BOJ hike on 30 October is priced at 31%. A TradingView note on euro and sterling futures has EUR near 1.14345 and GBP near 1.3257, both inside descending channels, with the author framing the weakness as broad dollar strength rather than anything specific to either currency.
US data on the day
Durable goods came in firm: August capital goods orders excluding defence and aircraft rose 1.6% month on month against 0.6% expected, with July revised up to 0.6% from unchanged. The Michigan September consumer sentiment final was revised up 0.3 to 48.1, above the 47.5 expected, but still down from 51.7 in August, and inflation expectations worsened, with the one-year reading jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%. New home sales came in at 684K versus 615K expected. Jobless claims were 197K against 201K expected, continuing claims 1,719K. KC Fed manufacturing rose to 20 from 17. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 5.1%. Canada's retail sales fell 0.7%, roughly in line. The 7-year note auction stopped at 5.085%, up from 4.512% previously.
Hassett attacks the Fed's direction
Nick Timiraos posted extended remarks from Kevin Hassett at a Georgetown conference on 23 September. Hassett argued that annualising the last three months of core inflation gives 2%, so "if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?" He described Warsh as managing "an unusually partisan Fed," questioned why Barr and Powell have not resigned when their terms as chair and vice chair ended, and warned that if non-Trump appointees push the short rate to 6% and hold it for two or three years, arbitrage drags the two-year there too. He said there is "still some work to do to restore Fed independence." Replies pushed back, with RenMac noting financial conditions remain accommodative while inflation is above target. Separately, Timiraos posted that Warsh attended Thursday's White House state dinner with Xi.
France, the ECB and the BoE
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said France cannot rely on the ECB to fix its debt problems. French 10-year yields have climbed to 4.7%, the highest since 2008, on fiscal and political uncertainty ahead of the April-May presidential election. Moulin said the state is having no trouble tapping the market but that rising debt-service costs risk a "gradual stranglehold" on public finances, called the idea of ECB rescue "flawed reasoning," and noted the ECB's crisis tools only activate once a country has acted itself. The 2027 budget bill goes to lawmakers next Thursday. On the UK side, headline-only items have Bailey saying high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold and separately describing AI as a positive supply shock, and Morgan Stanley changing its BoE call to hikes in November and February. The SNB held at 0.00%, Banxico held at 6.5% and Egypt held at 19%.
Equities, gold and oil
The Investing.com quote boxes show the S&P 500 closing at 7,741.83, up 0.49%, the Dow at 51,828.59, up 0.93%, the Nasdaq up 0.48% and VIX down 5.17% to 14.86, with stocks holding weekly gains despite the yield move. Citi said it remains overweight US equities and would buy any pullback, expecting AI to stay the driver. Gold is mixed across the items: December COMEX gold was up 0.13% midday per Barchart, the quote boxes later show gold futures at 4,326.90, up 0.67%, while Kitco headlines have spot gold around $4,265, down 0.20%, and set for a weekly loss as oil fuels hike bets. Barchart notes gold ETF holdings at a 6.5-month high and PBOC reserves up 650,000 ounces in August to 76.73 million troy ounces, the twenty-second consecutive monthly increase. WTI was 92.25, down 2.49%, Brent 104.29, down 2.17%.
Fed balance sheet and regulatory items
The Fed's balance sheet was essentially flat at $6,748B from $6,747B, with reserve balances at $2.969T from $2.921T. On the regulatory side, the Fed proposed a framework for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act, and ARK launched a blockchain-based fund after an SEC ruling. A headline-only Reuters item says the Fed is preparing to raise the asset thresholds that trigger tougher bank regulation, with the top threshold possibly going from $700 billion to around $960 billion.
Monday's calendar
Light. Dallas Fed manufacturing at 9:30 ET (previous 11.6), 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 10:30 (previous 4.015% and 4.155%), and Richmond Fed's Barkin speaking at 12:30.
The rest
The bulk of the remaining items are CFTC speculative positioning lines with previous values only and no new print, a large block of TradingView gold and FX chart setups, and routine European calendar entries. One full-text cattle piece: live cattle up 60 cents at midday, feeders up $3.55 to $4.35, cash trade at $348-355 dressed in the North and $222-223 live, the Friday Fed Cattle Exchange auction cleared nothing on 1,696 head with bids at $220, and Thursday slaughter was estimated at 90,000 head, putting the week 31,000 below last week and 77,607 below the same week last year.
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