September payrolls miss badly
The dominant fact going into this week is Friday's September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against consensus near 84,000-89,000, with private payrolls at 46,000 versus 85,000 expected and government employment falling 17,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, participation ticked up to 61.8%, and U6 actually fell to 7.6%. Wages cooled more than expected: average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year over year versus 3.2%. Manufacturing payrolls added 9,000, average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted job growth over the prior three months was revised a little softer, and framed the report as not really changing the story for a Fed whose senior officials had already signalled an October hike was not their base case, with the notable feature being the absence of wage pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report "about expected."
Rate-hike odds come out of the market
The repricing was immediate. Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi moved to an 85% chance of a hold in October. Remember the direction of travel here: the Fed hiked a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first increase since 2023, in a unanimous vote, with the dot plot flagging another rise later in 2026 and more into 2027. Fed speakers are not closing the door. Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, and Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause are on the table. Williams, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Barkin, Schmid, Collins, Logan and Waller all have speaking slots on the calendar.
Stocks rallied, bonds did not
Equities took the weak number as good news. The S&P 500 closed Friday up 0.73% at 7,722.72, the Nasdaq up 1.19% at 27,190.86 and near a record, the Dow up 0.49% at 51,176.96, and VIX fell 6.59% to 15.31. But the bond market went the other way. The 10-year finished at 5.277%, up 4.3bp, after initially dropping to 5.176% on the miss and then climbing 11.8bp to 5.294% by late afternoon; the 5-year rose 5bp to 5.055% and the 10-2 spread widened 15%. NaranjCapital's piece on the S&P flags exactly this tension: the index is about 1% below the 7,800 level that has capped it repeatedly, but the Dow fell 1.3% last week and roughly three quarters of S&P constituents closed lower, with a narrow group of tech and AI names doing the lifting. That author puts 7,600 as the floor and 7,300 below it, and expects yields and oil to drive the week given a quiet calendar. A separate SPX note from binibra37 marks 7,600-7,650 and 7,500 as support, 7,750-7,800 then 8,000 as resistance. Citi, per a headline, says a rates selloff without a corresponding Fed repricing is concerning.
Gold slips despite the dovish print
Gold spiked on the payrolls miss to around 4,248 and then gave it all back, closing the week at 4,140.52 spot with futures at 4,172.10, down 0.72%. Three full-read gold pieces tell the same story from different angles. RLinda attributes the pressure to a strong dollar, rising oil, and the Fed's hawkish stance, and sees a 4,110-4,220 range with support at 4,140, 4,110 and 4,100. ProjectSyndicate's zone map has price sitting on the lip of its weakest mapped demand at 4,119-4,142 after a slide from roughly 4,520, with the next real floors at 4,014-4,036 and 3,935-3,978, and the first overhead supply at 4,295-4,319; that author also notes 10- and 30-year yields at their highest since 2007 and 2004 and the dollar near a two-month high. sheeerren marks 4,143-4,150 as resistance tested twice and 4,108-4,115 as the untouched downside target. One dissenting full-read view, rarePie72880, argues for a move up toward 4,280. CFTC gold specs trimmed slightly to 218.6K from 225.9K.
The cross-asset tell from Friday
A SignalPilotLabs study of Friday is the most useful single read on the backdrop. DXY barely moved after the release, finishing 0.06% above its 12:30 UTC level with a total range of 0.27%, and VIX fell. What moved was oil and yields: crude bottomed at 88.48 and rose 3.8% to 91.81 within a few hours, while the 10-year reversed its initial drop and finished higher. Bitcoin jumped to 87,242 on the miss, its highest since 23 September, then closed the week at 84,476, 3.2% below that top. The author's framing is that a weak jobs number argues for cuts while rising oil and yields argue the opposite, and that gold and Bitcoin traded as if the rate-cut bet was being taken back while stocks ignored it. Also noted: Bybit open interest fell 8.5% from its post-release peak while the share of accounts long rose to 56.9%, and the 29 largest altcoins fell an average 3.3% in a single hour between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC with no macro move behind it.
Eurozone inflation jumps, ECB expectations shift
Euro zone September CPI came in at 3.8% year over year against 3.6-3.7% consensus and 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5% from 2.4%, in line. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned that inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, and Lagarde and Schnabel both had speaking slots. Austria printed 3.5% and Croatia 4.6% for September.
French sovereign risk widening
A separate and growing European problem: the French-German 10-year spread widened to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with French 5-year sovereign CDS at 81bp, a multiyear high. RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying the spread could reach 200bp in coming months, and Candriam's Nicolas Forest says French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels. PCM_fx builds a bearish EURGBP case on exactly this, pairing the widening French spread against a UK GDP revision higher. Nato_Financials is bearish EURUSD on the rate differential, with the Fed at 3.75-4.00% against an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%. Separately, Merz is reported meeting frontrunners for the Lagarde job, and Italy is seeking clarity on rumours about Lagarde's ECB future.
US data outside payrolls ran warm
The rest of the US data is not soft. ISM manufacturing was 54.5 against 54.8 expected, but new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7 both beat, and prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus flat expected. Factory orders were 0.1%, in line but down from 0.8%, with ex-transport at 0.3%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.7%. The Fed's balance sheet was $6,743B, with reserve balances down to $2.881T from $2.969T.
Oil, energy and the geopolitical overlay
WTI closed at 91.26, down 1.73%, with Brent at 102.72, up 0.46%, after the Friday afternoon rally described above. Headlines note Iran is keeping Hormuz closed with Washington talks deadlocked, and OPEC+ agreed to keep November output targets steady. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers called the US-Iran war an economic "disaster," blaming it for higher inflation and borrowing costs globally; the RBA has raised rates to a 15-year high citing energy prices tied to the Middle East alongside domestic capacity pressures. Chalmers said rising global bond yields would add "some billions" to Australia's debt-servicing costs, rejected the idea that government spending was the main inflation driver, and said Australia is not expecting a recession. Goldman separately estimates a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%. Crude speculative longs were cut to 109.5K from 141.1K.
Fed building investigation and the Powell headlines
Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over Fed building cost overruns, though he said the DOJ could investigate if the Fed's own internal audit finds wrongdoing. Trump posted on Truth Social calling the reports "total lies," saying newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an independent audit, and citing an Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget. Timiraos notes Trump restated his unhappiness with Powell and with coverage that leaned on his own attorney general's statements.
Positioning is heavily short the dollar's counterparts
The CFTC data released Friday shows speculative shorts extended across most of the majors: GBP -91.1K from -82.6K, CAD -78.7K from -53.2K, EUR -63.3K from -52.3K, AUD -63.2K from -46.8K, NZD -17.3K from -11.4K. Yen longs were cut to 55.4K from 72.0K, Swiss franc shorts trimmed slightly to -24.6K, and Brazilian real longs grew to 60.5K. On the index side, S&P 500 net shorts deepened to -142.5K from -133.2K while Nasdaq 100 longs eased to 51.2K.
Nike's China problem, read in full
One single-name piece worth flagging since it's the one company story read in full here: Nike fell 3.64% to 33.87 on heavy volume. Q1 revenue fell 4% year over year to $11.2bn, missing by $110m, while EPS of $0.48 beat by four cents and gross margin improved 60bp to 42.8% on lower warehousing and logistics costs. Greater China revenue plunged 22%, or 26% in constant currency, to $1.18bn with wholesale down 28%, which the author attributes to Nike deliberately pulling back on promotions and tightening digital distribution. Nike Direct fell 8% with digital down 13%; North America was the only major market to grow. Running, football, training and basketball each grew at a high single-digit rate. The piece also notes Kylian Mbappé ended a two-decade Nike partnership to join On, and that management admitted oversupplying Jordan retros and is cutting launch volumes deliberately.
The rest
The remainder is mostly routine calendar prints and chart posts without new substance: Baker Hughes rig count at 598 from 599, bill auctions at 3.990% and 3.890%, Singapore manufacturing PMI 51.7, Hong Kong retail sales 5.6%, Italian retail sales 0.3%, Brazil industrial production -0.6%, Spanish unemployment change 23.6K, and India's FX reserves down to $747.56bn from $765.90bn. Among the full-read chart posts, john12's SOXL note argues the semi rally will not last unless the 2-year drops to 4.50% and the Fed confirms cuts; KhayamBahadar's Netflix post simply flags a support area and names earnings, interest rates and the Nasdaq 100 as the things to watch; El_Operador07's DXY and EURUSD notes offer general commentary on pre-election dollar uncertainty and European energy costs without specifics.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant item is the September jobs report, and it was weak across the board. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against consensus of 89,000 (some feeds cite 84,000) and a prior 133,000. Private payrolls added just 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, government shed 17,000, manufacturing added 9,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, above the 4.1% consensus, while the participation rate ticked up to 61.8% from 61.6% and U6 eased to 7.6% from 7.7%. Wages cooled: average hourly earnings +0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year on year against 3.2%. Average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted the prior three months were revised a little softer, and framed the report as not changing the story much, since senior Fed officials had already signalled this week that an October hike was not their base case. His follow-up line is that the weak report clears the path for a pause.
Rate-hike pricing comes out
Note the direction of the debate here: the market has been pricing the possibility of a hike, not a cut. After the report, Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi moved to an 85% chance the Fed holds in October. Headlines through the session read the same way, stocks rallying and settling higher as hike concerns eased, the dollar slipping on weak US data, and gold and silver firmer as Treasury yields fell. Kitco tied the metals bid directly to lower yields, trimmed October hike odds and safe-haven demand. Fed speakers were everywhere: Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, Goolsbee said a hike and a pause are both on the table, and Logan, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Cook, Jefferson, Waller, Schmid and Collins all had scheduled remarks. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected.
Other US data, and a hot ISM prices print
The rest of the US calendar leaned firm, which cuts against the payrolls story. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both beating, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus a flat consensus. Jobless claims stayed low at 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000. Factory orders were in line at 0.1% but down from 0.8%, with durables ex-transport at 0.2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sat at 3.7%, unchanged. Fed balance sheet 6,743B, reserve balances 2.881T, down from 2.969T.
Euro zone inflation surges, ECB and France in focus
Euro zone September CPI accelerated to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6-3.7% consensus and well up from 3.2% in August, with core at 2.5% from 2.4%, in line. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, and Austria printed 3.5%, Croatia 4.6%. Separately, French government bonds are under real pressure: the 10-year spread over Germany widened to around 150-152 basis points, described in the feed as the widest since 2011-2012, with five-year French sovereign CDS at 81 basis points, a multiyear high. RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying the spread could reach 200 basis points; Candriam's Nicolas Forest says French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels. Running alongside that is the ECB leadership story, with Merz reported by Bloomberg to be meeting frontrunners for the Lagarde job and Italy seeking clarity on rumours about her future.
CFTC positioning, week over week
The weekly CFTC speculative net positions came through the economic calendar as data lines only, no commentary attached. Dollar shorts against the majors got bigger almost everywhere: euro -63.3K from -52.3K, sterling -91.1K from -82.6K, Canadian dollar -78.7K from -53.2K, Aussie -63.2K from -46.8K, kiwi -17.3K from -11.4K. Yen longs were trimmed to 55.4K from 72.0K and Swiss franc shorts shrank slightly to -24.6K. In commodities and index futures, crude longs fell hard to 109.5K from 141.1K, gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, silver to 22.1K, copper to 85.4K, corn to 509.5K and soybeans to 256.9K, while wheat went deeper short at -16.5K from -7.4K and natural gas shorts grew to -231.0K. S&P 500 net short widened to -142.5K from -133.2K and Nasdaq 100 longs slipped to 51.2K.
Powell renovation probe and Trump
Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg News he is not reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed chair Jerome Powell over the building cost overruns, but said the DOJ could investigate if the Fed's own internal audit turns up evidence of wrongdoing. Trump posted on Truth Social calling reports on the matter lies, said newly confirmed Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an independent audit, and cited this week's Inspector General report describing the project as hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule. Timiraos notes Trump also said he was unhappy with coverage that leaned on his own attorney general's statements.
The rest is retail chart commentary
The bulk of the remaining items are TradingView posts, mostly gold around the NFP print with assorted level calls, plus dollar pairs and index charts. Two were read in full and amount to one trader's view each: a SOXL long arguing the rally will not hold unless the 2-year yield drops to 4.50 and the Fed confirms a cut, and a gold post noting XAUUSD tapped the 4-hour 50 EMA after the payrolls release, reversed to about 4130, and the author looking for a move toward the 100 EMA and a gap near 4280. Nothing in that group is news. Also in the list but quiet: Baker Hughes rigs at 598 total and 456 oil, Japan's Tokyo CPI entries carrying consensus only, and Spanish, Italian and Brazilian national data.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant item is the September US jobs report, and it came in well under consensus. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against an expected 84,000 to 89,000, after 133,000 previously. Private payrolls added just 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, and government employment fell 17,000 after a 44,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, with consensus at 4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6% and U6 edged down to 7.6%. Wages cooled: average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year over year versus 3.2% expected and 3.1% prior. Manufacturing payrolls added 9,000, average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted the prior three months were revised a little softer, and framed the report as not really changing the Fed story, with the most notable feature being the absence of wage or labour-market inflation pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected.
Rate-hike odds priced out
The unusual feature of this backdrop is that the debate has been about a possible Fed hike, not a cut, and the payrolls print took that off the table for October. Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi odds on an October hold jumped to 85%. Headlines across the session describe stocks rallying, the dollar retreating and gold and silver rising as Treasury yields fell, with Kitco tying the metals move directly to lower yields and trimmed October hike expectations plus safe-haven demand. Fed speakers this week leaned the same way before the data: Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, while Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause are on the table. Separately, Citi flagged that a rates selloff happening without any Fed repricing is concerning. There is a heavy Fed speaking calendar around all of this, with Logan, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Jefferson, Cook and Waller all listed.
Other US data points the other way
The rest of the US data is firmer than the payrolls number. ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.5 against 54.8 expected and 54.6 prior, but the prices paid component jumped to 77.9 versus 72.9 expected and 71.1 before, with new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7, both above consensus. Construction spending rose 0.9% against a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000 versus 1,730,000, both below forecast. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.7%, unchanged. Factory orders were 0.1% in line, down from 0.8%, with durables ex-transport at 0.2%. The Fed's balance sheet stands at 6,743 billion, reserve balances at 2.881 trillion, down from 2.969 trillion.
Euro zone inflation accelerates
Euro zone September inflation jumped to 3.8% year over year, above the 3.6% to 3.7% consensus and well up from 3.2% in August, per Eurostat. Core rose to 2.5% from 2.4%, matching expectations. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB rate hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned that inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, though he also said soaring yields may curb the inflation impact of expensive energy. Austria's September inflation came in at 3.5% and Croatia's at 4.6%, in line with forecasts.
French bond spreads at crisis-era levels
France's 10-year yield spread over Germany widened to roughly 150 to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011 to 2012, on fiscal and political concerns. Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest said French debt is now trading near European debt-crisis levels, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell said the spread could reach 200 basis points in coming months. The cost of insuring French government debt hit a multiyear high, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81 basis points. European shares edged higher after that bonds-driven selloff.
ECB succession chatter
A cluster of headlines points at the top of the ECB: Bloomberg reports Merz will meet frontrunners for the Lagarde job as the race heats up, and Italy has repeatedly sought clarity on rumours about Lagarde's departure. These are headline-only items, so there is no detail here beyond the fact that the question is live.
Fed building probe and Warsh
A Trump Truth Social post calls reporting on the Federal Reserve building renovation investigation false, and states that newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an in-depth independent audit, that Attorney General Todd Blanche said DOJ will investigate any evidence of wrongdoing, and that an Inspector General report this week found the project hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule, blaming Jerome Powell. Separately, Timiraos relays that Blanche told Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal investigation into Powell, but that if the Fed's own internal audit finds evidence of wrongdoing, DOJ could investigate.
CFTC positioning
The CFTC speculative net position items were read in full, but the underlying pages carried no article text beyond calendar boilerplate, so the figures are only what the lines themselves state. Across FX, shorts deepened against the dollar nearly everywhere: EUR to -63.3K from -52.3K, GBP to -91.1K from -82.6K, AUD to -63.2K from -46.8K, CAD to -78.7K from -53.2K, NZD to -17.3K from -11.4K. CHF shorts trimmed slightly to -24.6K, yen longs cut to 55.4K from 72.0K, BRL longs grew to 60.5K. In equity index futures, the S&P 500 net short deepened to -142.5K from -133.2K while the Nasdaq 100 long was trimmed to 51.2K from 56.1K. Commodity longs came off broadly: crude to 109.5K from 141.1K, gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, silver to 22.1K from 25.4K, copper to 85.4K, corn to 509.5K, soybeans to 256.9K. Natural gas shorts deepened to -231.0K and wheat shorts to -16.5K from -7.4K.
Odds and ends
Baker Hughes total rig count slipped to 598 from 599, with oil rigs up one to 456. Natural gas storage built 64B against 63B expected. Goldman Sachs estimates a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%, cushioned by inventories and alternative suppliers. A BoE survey shows UK firms seeing smaller price rises with wage growth steady. Brazil industrial production fell 0.6% against 0.1% expected. Italian retail sales rose 0.3% versus -0.1% expected, Spanish unemployment rose 23.6K versus 17.6K expected, Singapore manufacturing PMI 51.7. China and India were on holiday. The large remainder of this section is retail TradingView chart commentary, mostly on gold and NFP positioning, which carries no news content.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant story is the September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against a consensus near 84,000 (Investing.com's roundup cites an 89,000 estimate), the slowest monthly gain of the year, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Private payrolls added only 46,000 while government employment fell 17,000, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year on year. JPMorgan's Michael Feroli put the three-month average at 51,000, roughly breakeven against labor supply growth, and said the wage deceleration should reassure the Fed that the economy is not overheating.
October hike odds collapse
This is a tightening cycle, and the data took an October hike largely off the table. CME FedWatch moved to roughly 22% odds of a quarter-point hike versus about 78% for a hold, Kalshi priced an 85% chance of a pause, and fed-dated swaps no longer price one full hike this year. Feroli said it would now take a very strong CPI to make October live and still looks for a December hike. Diane Swonk of KPMG expects a skip in October and a resumption in December, warning the inflation data into that meeting will be hot on energy. RSM's Joseph Brusuelas sees no hike in October, one 25bp move in December and another in March 2027. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial said there is zero chance of an October hike and that September should have been a hold. Nick Timiraos framed it as a report that doesn't change the story, since senior officials had already signalled this week that an October hike wasn't the base case.
Fed speakers pulling in both directions
Officials are not uniformly dovish. Austan Goolsbee told Fox Business that the labor data show a steady market and that too-high inflation is the bigger priority, saying there is "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" and he wants evidence pointing back to 2%. Headlines also have Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan calling for 50bp or more of further hikes to keep inflation from settling above target, and Governor Cook flagging the AI buildout as the top inflation risk for 2027. A heavy speaker calendar follows: Williams, Bowman, Jefferson, Barkin, Schmid, Collins, Waller and Logan.
Stocks up, bonds still heavy
Equities took the weak data as good news. The S&P 500 closed at 7,724.06, up 0.75%, the Nasdaq up 1.19% and the Dow up 0.49%, with VIX down 6.47% to 15.33. Bonds did not follow through: the 10-year yield was last up 4.4bp at 5.282%, the 5-year up to 5.064% and the 30-year at 5.631%, and the week was still a loss on the bond rout. Dollar index 101.65, essentially flat. Gold futures 4,174 and silver 60.9, both modestly firmer, with Kitco tying the bid to lower yields and trimmed hike odds.
Other US data, mostly firm
The rest of the US numbers sit awkwardly against the payrolls miss. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both above consensus, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000. Atlanta Fed GDPNow held at 3.7%. The Fed's balance sheet slipped to $6,743B from $6,748B, reserve balances to $2.881T from $2.969T.
Europe inflation hot, France under stress
Eurozone September inflation accelerated to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.2%, with core at 2.5%. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December, per headline. Separately, French risk is widening: the 10-year spread over Germany reached 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81bp, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying it could reach 200bp. On top of that, Italy's Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said Rome wants clarification on speculation that Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB before her term ends, adding he can't read her intentions but that the uncertainty should be resolved, and that Italy has no candidate for the job.
Japan inflation and the BOJ
Tokyo CPI accelerated in September, with core consensus at 2.4% against 1.8% prior and headline previously 1.9%, and headlines tie it to a firmer yen and a stronger case for further BOJ hikes. The jobs-to-applications ratio was expected unchanged at 1.18, and the monetary base was seen at -16.3% versus -15.7%.
DOJ drops Powell probe
The Justice Department is not reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns on the central bank's building renovation. Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg he hasn't ruled out continuing to look at the project's oversight if evidence of wrongdoing emerges. The Fed's Inspector General said Wednesday it found no grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct, though its finding of lax oversight drew a fresh call from President Trump for Powell's resignation. Powell has stayed on as a governor since leaving the chair in May.
Rest of the list
Most of the remainder is TradingView chart commentary around gold, the dollar and the index futures ahead of and after NFP, plus routine calendar prints. Nothing there adds to the picture above. One Citi note appears twice in headline form, saying a rates selloff without a corresponding Fed repricing is concerning.
September payrolls miss badly
The main event already landed: US September nonfarm payrolls came in at +29,000 against consensus of +84,000, per the Walter Bloomberg feed carrying the Labor Department print. The reply detail on that same post adds private payrolls of 46,000 against 85,000 expected, unemployment at 4.2% versus 4.1% expected and 4.1% prior, U6 down to 7.6% from 7.7%, participation up to 61.8% from 61.6%, and average hourly earnings of 0.1% against 0.3% expected. So it is a soft hiring number with cooling wages, not a labour market falling apart. Everything written before the release in this section, and that is most of it, was positioning for exactly this number.
Fed is debating hikes, not cuts
Worth being clear on the direction of travel, because it is unusual: this Fed is tightening. Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan said rates likely need to rise by at least another 50 basis points to keep inflation from settling above 2%, framing those increases plus September's as merely reversing the three cuts already delivered, according to Nick Timiraos. Kashkari says more hikes are needed but has "no strong view" on October and is open-minded, with September projections calling for one more hike in 2026 and another in 2027. Against that, Vice Chair Jefferson said officials may take more time before moving again, echoing Williams, which Timiraos reads as two of the Fed's top leaders casting doubt on an October hike that investors had been pricing. Governor Cook, separately, flagged the AI buildout as a top inflation risk for 2027. Two-year Treasury yields had already briefly hit their lowest since 22 September, last down 12.68 basis points at 4.76%. The speaker calendar is heavy: Logan, Williams, Cook, Bowman, Jefferson, Waller, Barkin, Schmid, Collins and Kashkari all listed, plus Lagarde and Schnabel for the ECB, Bailey, Pill and Mann for the BoE, Nagel, Schlegel and the BoC's Rogers. Timiraos also notes Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the IMF fall meetings in Bangkok on 16 October, just before blackout.
French bond stress is the live risk in Europe
The French-German 10-year spread widened to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with Candriam's Nicolas Forest saying French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell suggesting 200 basis points is possible in coming months. Five-year French sovereign CDS rose to 81 basis points, a multiyear high. Citi says a rates selloff without accompanying Fed repricing is concerning. A TradingView piece on SPY sets out the framework around this without taking a crisis view: it separates government debt stress, where heavy borrowing and higher rates are lifting financing costs with France singled out, from corporate and private credit, where weaker borrowers face expensive refinancing and leverage at company, fund and investor level can magnify losses. Its practical point is that falling Treasury yields are ambiguous unless you check credit spreads alongside them. Yields down with spreads steady or narrower is cheaper money, yields down with spreads sharply wider is lenders getting scared. Spanish 10-year auction cleared at 4.176%, up from 3.960%.
Inflation running hot in Europe, cooling in Asia
Eurozone September inflation jumped to 3.8% year on year against 3.6% consensus and 3.2% in August, with core ticking up to 2.5% from 2.4%, per Eurostat via the DeItaone feed. Headlines have the ECB under pressure to hike, with Rehn warning energy costs are lifting inflation risks while also saying soaring yields may curb that impact. Austria printed 3.5% and Croatia 4.6% in September. Switzerland is the outlier at 0.0% CPI, in line. South Korean inflation eased slightly. The BoE's own survey shows UK firms seeing smaller price rises with wage growth steady.
Tokyo CPI and the yen
Tokyo core CPI accelerated in September, which is being read as strengthening the case for further BOJ hikes, and the yen firmed on it. A TradingView USDJPY note cites Tokyo core at 2.7%, above the 2% target and above expectations, but notes the BOJ has given little clarity on timing while high US yields and a firm dollar still support the pair. The Nasdaq calendar entries for Tokyo CPI carried a 2.4% consensus against 1.8% prior for core. Note those calendar items had no usable article content behind them, just the posted figures. Japan's Tankan and BoJ Summary of Opinions are also on the calendar.
US activity data still firm
The hard data ahead of payrolls was not weak. ISM manufacturing PMI 54.5 against 54.8 expected, new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both beating, but prices paid at 77.9 against 72.9 consensus and 71.1 prior, a sharp jump. Construction spending +0.9% against flat expected. Initial claims 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000, both low. Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds at 3.7%. Challenger job cuts at -19.9%. The Fed's balance sheet slipped to 6,743B from 6,748B and reserve balances fell to 2.881T from 2.969T.
Pre-open tone and positioning
Dow futures were up 0.5% ahead of the open per IBD, with yields and oil easing; Nike plunged on earnings and Tesla Q3 deliveries were due before the bell. Vanguard was expecting a dismal jobs report, per IBD, and that is roughly what arrived. Bitcoin rose to $86,500 on "uptober" talk. Gold is the most crowded discussion in this section by far, with a long run of TradingView charts clustered around the 4,100 to 4,245 area ahead of NFP, all headline-only and none adding reported fact. Elsewhere in the calendar: euro zone unemployment steady at 6.4%, Italian unemployment up to 6.2% against 5.8% expected, euro zone manufacturing PMI 52.9, Germany 53.9, France 50.6, Italy 50.4, Spain 51.0, so Europe is holding just above expansion. Goldman is quoted estimating a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%, softened by inventories and alternative suppliers.
Fed leadership steps back from an October hike
The dominant thread is a visible cooling of October hike expectations. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials "may take more time" before the next move, with decisions driven by incoming data, and noted inflation is still above target with upside risks while the economy and labour market remain resilient. Nick Timiraos framed this as Jefferson echoing New York Fed President John Williams, with two of the Fed's top leaders casting doubt on a hike that investors had been pricing more heavily a few days earlier. Neel Kashkari said he has no strong view on October and is open-minded, while still expecting more hikes, with his September projections showing one more in 2026 and another in 2027. He also said the economy keeps surprising him with its resilience, consumer spending is strong, the labour market broadly healthy, and that further hikes would press unevenly across the economy. Separate headlines have him saying the Fed must lower inflation pressures. Goldman Sachs has pushed its Fed hike forecast out to December. These are headline items, so that's the extent of what's stated.
Rates and the dollar sent mixed signals
Two different yield snapshots appear in the day's flow. One has the two-year briefly at its lowest since 22 September, down 12.68 basis points at 4.76%. A separate one has the ten-year up 4.72 basis points at 5.34% with the two-year flat at 4.883%. Taken together that points to a session where the front end rallied on the Fed repricing while the long end stayed under pressure, and the headlines reflect both sides: "Stocks Erase Gains as Inflation Risks Push Bond Yields Higher" and "Dollar Rallies on Higher T-note Yields and US Economic Strength" alongside "Morning Bid: Inflation relief gives bonds little reprieve."
US data: soft inflation, strong activity
The PCE round came in below consensus. Core PCE prices 3.30% against 3.60% expected and 4.40% prior, core PCE price index 0.2% versus 0.3%, headline PCE prices 5.0% versus 5.3% though up from 4.6%, and the monthly PCE price index 0.3% versus 0.4%. Activity was the opposite. Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 against 51.2 expected and 47.1 prior, ADP added 90K versus 73K expected and 36K before, real consumer spending ran 3.8% against 3.4%, personal spending 0.9%, and GDP sales 2.8% versus 2.2%. Personal income disappointed at 0.2% versus 0.5%. The goods trade deficit widened to 132.60B against 116.30B expected. Atlanta Fed GDPNow dropped to 3.7% from 5.0%. Dallas Fed PCE was unchanged at 1.90%. The Chicago Fed estimates September unemployment at 4.10%, slightly below August's 4.14%, citing better hiring prospects and slightly lower separations.
Friday payrolls are the next event
Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly earnings are due Friday, and several of the day's commentary pieces are positioned around it. Mortgage data was weak ahead of it: the MBA 30-year rate rose to 7.30% from 7.12%, applications fell 6.0%, and the refinance index dropped to 557.8 from 611.0.
Europe: inflation back up, equities lower
European stocks slipped as Q4 opened, with Investing.com citing energy costs and inflation, and a separate piece pointing to the French budget unveiling. German CPI and HICP both came in at 0.6% monthly against 0.5% expected and 0.2% prior, with the state readings running hot (Saxony 3.4%, Brandenburg 3.6%, Bavaria 3.2%). Italian HICP was 2.0% versus 1.8% expected and 0.1% prior. France was the outlier, CPI at -0.3% and HICP -0.4%, both less negative than the -0.5% consensus, with consumer spending at -0.5% against a flat forecast and French PPI at 4.80% from 3.50%. German unemployment change was 12K versus 1K expected, rate steady at 6.4%. The German 10-year Bund auction cleared at 3.580%, up from 3.390%. UK GDP was 0.5% versus 0.4%, business investment 1.8%, current account -19.9B, better than the -25.6B expected, and UK factory PMI showed growing inflation pressures. Swiss inflation held at 1% in September, with fuel price gains offsetting cheaper holidays. Bundesbank's Nagel said the ECB focuses on inflation rather than bond spreads, and the BoE's Mann criticised the monetary policy response to the Iran shock.
Gold and the metals complex
Gold slid 6% in September and was little changed afterwards as the softer PCE trimmed Fed hike bets, per Investing.com. Kitco reported spot gold and silver higher in early US trading Thursday, with soft inflation data keeping October hike expectations below earlier-week levels and jobless claims adding to the move. Most of the remaining gold items are TradingView chart posts pointing in both directions, which is worth noting only as positioning noise rather than news.
Trump on the Fed
In a Time magazine interview Trump said the Fed should not raise rates again and that its rate policies are hurting the US "more than inflation is hurting our country." He said twice that Fed officials, excluding Kevin Warsh, have "Trump derangement syndrome," and separately said he doesn't blame Warsh on rates. On the debt he said he didn't want to specify the means but that it could be paid off.
Asia and the economic calendar entries
Asia stocks rose on chipmaker gains and the soft US inflation print, with the Nikkei outperforming. A large block of Nasdaq economic calendar items for Japan, Korea, Australia and Singapore was retrieved, but the pages returned only site boilerplate with no data, so all that is available is what the item lines themselves carry: Japan Tankan large manufacturers consensus 25 versus 22 prior and big manufacturing outlook 22 versus 17, Australian manufacturing PMI consensus 49.3 against 52.0 prior, which would be a drop into contraction, Korean exports consensus 61.7% versus 68.7% and imports 21.5% versus 22.4%, and Korean manufacturing PMI prior 52.3. The RBA Financial Stability Review and the BoJ Summary of Opinions are both on the calendar with no content retrieved. Japan housing starts came in at 6.1% against 6.9% expected.
Elsewhere
Russia posted monthly GDP of 0.8% from 0.6%, unemployment 2.2%, but retail sales well short at 3.3% against 5.6% expected. Brazil's budget balance came in at -116.000B versus -109.400B expected with gross debt-to-GDP at 82.9%. US crude inventories built 0.922M against an expected 0.700M draw, while distillates drew 2.251M versus 0.200M expected and gasoline drew 1.684M. The rest of the section is routine calendar prints and chart commentary.
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