September payrolls miss badly
The dominant item is the September US jobs report, and it came in well under consensus. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against an expected 84,000 to 89,000, after 133,000 previously. Private payrolls added just 46,000 versus 85,000 expected, and government employment fell 17,000 after a 44,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, with consensus at 4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6% and U6 edged down to 7.6%. Wages cooled: average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% year over year versus 3.2% expected and 3.1% prior. Manufacturing payrolls added 9,000, average weekly hours held at 34.4. Nick Timiraos noted the prior three months were revised a little softer, and framed the report as not really changing the Fed story, with the most notable feature being the absence of wage or labour-market inflation pressure. Kevin Hassett called the report about as expected.
Rate-hike odds priced out
The unusual feature of this backdrop is that the debate has been about a possible Fed hike, not a cut, and the payrolls print took that off the table for October. Fed-dated swaps no longer price one full rate hike this year, and Kalshi odds on an October hold jumped to 85%. Headlines across the session describe stocks rallying, the dollar retreating and gold and silver rising as Treasury yields fell, with Kitco tying the metals move directly to lower yields and trimmed October hike expectations plus safe-haven demand. Fed speakers this week leaned the same way before the data: Hammack told PBS there is still time to weigh the next move, while Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause are on the table. Separately, Citi flagged that a rates selloff happening without any Fed repricing is concerning. There is a heavy Fed speaking calendar around all of this, with Logan, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Jefferson, Cook and Waller all listed.
Other US data points the other way
The rest of the US data is firmer than the payrolls number. ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.5 against 54.8 expected and 54.6 prior, but the prices paid component jumped to 77.9 versus 72.9 expected and 71.1 before, with new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7, both above consensus. Construction spending rose 0.9% against a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000 versus 1,730,000, both below forecast. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.7%, unchanged. Factory orders were 0.1% in line, down from 0.8%, with durables ex-transport at 0.2%. The Fed's balance sheet stands at 6,743 billion, reserve balances at 2.881 trillion, down from 2.969 trillion.
Euro zone inflation accelerates
Euro zone September inflation jumped to 3.8% year over year, above the 3.6% to 3.7% consensus and well up from 3.2% in August, per Eurostat. Core rose to 2.5% from 2.4%, matching expectations. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB rate hike in December. ECB's Rehn warned that inflation risks are rising as energy costs climb, though he also said soaring yields may curb the inflation impact of expensive energy. Austria's September inflation came in at 3.5% and Croatia's at 4.6%, in line with forecasts.
French bond spreads at crisis-era levels
France's 10-year yield spread over Germany widened to roughly 150 to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011 to 2012, on fiscal and political concerns. Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest said French debt is now trading near European debt-crisis levels, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell said the spread could reach 200 basis points in coming months. The cost of insuring French government debt hit a multiyear high, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81 basis points. European shares edged higher after that bonds-driven selloff.
ECB succession chatter
A cluster of headlines points at the top of the ECB: Bloomberg reports Merz will meet frontrunners for the Lagarde job as the race heats up, and Italy has repeatedly sought clarity on rumours about Lagarde's departure. These are headline-only items, so there is no detail here beyond the fact that the question is live.
Fed building probe and Warsh
A Trump Truth Social post calls reporting on the Federal Reserve building renovation investigation false, and states that newly confirmed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has ordered an in-depth independent audit, that Attorney General Todd Blanche said DOJ will investigate any evidence of wrongdoing, and that an Inspector General report this week found the project hundreds of millions over budget and behind schedule, blaming Jerome Powell. Separately, Timiraos relays that Blanche told Bloomberg he is not reopening a criminal investigation into Powell, but that if the Fed's own internal audit finds evidence of wrongdoing, DOJ could investigate.
CFTC positioning
The CFTC speculative net position items were read in full, but the underlying pages carried no article text beyond calendar boilerplate, so the figures are only what the lines themselves state. Across FX, shorts deepened against the dollar nearly everywhere: EUR to -63.3K from -52.3K, GBP to -91.1K from -82.6K, AUD to -63.2K from -46.8K, CAD to -78.7K from -53.2K, NZD to -17.3K from -11.4K. CHF shorts trimmed slightly to -24.6K, yen longs cut to 55.4K from 72.0K, BRL longs grew to 60.5K. In equity index futures, the S&P 500 net short deepened to -142.5K from -133.2K while the Nasdaq 100 long was trimmed to 51.2K from 56.1K. Commodity longs came off broadly: crude to 109.5K from 141.1K, gold to 218.6K from 225.9K, silver to 22.1K from 25.4K, copper to 85.4K, corn to 509.5K, soybeans to 256.9K. Natural gas shorts deepened to -231.0K and wheat shorts to -16.5K from -7.4K.
Odds and ends
Baker Hughes total rig count slipped to 598 from 599, with oil rigs up one to 456. Natural gas storage built 64B against 63B expected. Goldman Sachs estimates a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%, cushioned by inventories and alternative suppliers. A BoE survey shows UK firms seeing smaller price rises with wage growth steady. Brazil industrial production fell 0.6% against 0.1% expected. Italian retail sales rose 0.3% versus -0.1% expected, Spanish unemployment rose 23.6K versus 17.6K expected, Singapore manufacturing PMI 51.7. China and India were on holiday. The large remainder of this section is retail TradingView chart commentary, mostly on gold and NFP positioning, which carries no news content.
September payrolls miss badly
The dominant story is the September jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against a consensus near 84,000 (Investing.com's roundup cites an 89,000 estimate), the slowest monthly gain of the year, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Private payrolls added only 46,000 while government employment fell 17,000, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year on year. JPMorgan's Michael Feroli put the three-month average at 51,000, roughly breakeven against labor supply growth, and said the wage deceleration should reassure the Fed that the economy is not overheating.
October hike odds collapse
This is a tightening cycle, and the data took an October hike largely off the table. CME FedWatch moved to roughly 22% odds of a quarter-point hike versus about 78% for a hold, Kalshi priced an 85% chance of a pause, and fed-dated swaps no longer price one full hike this year. Feroli said it would now take a very strong CPI to make October live and still looks for a December hike. Diane Swonk of KPMG expects a skip in October and a resumption in December, warning the inflation data into that meeting will be hot on energy. RSM's Joseph Brusuelas sees no hike in October, one 25bp move in December and another in March 2027. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial said there is zero chance of an October hike and that September should have been a hold. Nick Timiraos framed it as a report that doesn't change the story, since senior officials had already signalled this week that an October hike wasn't the base case.
Fed speakers pulling in both directions
Officials are not uniformly dovish. Austan Goolsbee told Fox Business that the labor data show a steady market and that too-high inflation is the bigger priority, saying there is "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" and he wants evidence pointing back to 2%. Headlines also have Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan calling for 50bp or more of further hikes to keep inflation from settling above target, and Governor Cook flagging the AI buildout as the top inflation risk for 2027. A heavy speaker calendar follows: Williams, Bowman, Jefferson, Barkin, Schmid, Collins, Waller and Logan.
Stocks up, bonds still heavy
Equities took the weak data as good news. The S&P 500 closed at 7,724.06, up 0.75%, the Nasdaq up 1.19% and the Dow up 0.49%, with VIX down 6.47% to 15.33. Bonds did not follow through: the 10-year yield was last up 4.4bp at 5.282%, the 5-year up to 5.064% and the 30-year at 5.631%, and the week was still a loss on the bond rout. Dollar index 101.65, essentially flat. Gold futures 4,174 and silver 60.9, both modestly firmer, with Kitco tying the bid to lower yields and trimmed hike odds.
Other US data, mostly firm
The rest of the US numbers sit awkwardly against the payrolls miss. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both above consensus, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 against 72.9 expected and 71.1 prior. Construction spending rose 0.9% versus a flat consensus. Initial jobless claims were 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000. Atlanta Fed GDPNow held at 3.7%. The Fed's balance sheet slipped to $6,743B from $6,748B, reserve balances to $2.881T from $2.969T.
Europe inflation hot, France under stress
Eurozone September inflation accelerated to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.2%, with core at 2.5%. Standard Chartered now expects an ECB hike in December, per headline. Separately, French risk is widening: the 10-year spread over Germany reached 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with five-year sovereign CDS at 81bp, and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell is quoted saying it could reach 200bp. On top of that, Italy's Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said Rome wants clarification on speculation that Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB before her term ends, adding he can't read her intentions but that the uncertainty should be resolved, and that Italy has no candidate for the job.
Japan inflation and the BOJ
Tokyo CPI accelerated in September, with core consensus at 2.4% against 1.8% prior and headline previously 1.9%, and headlines tie it to a firmer yen and a stronger case for further BOJ hikes. The jobs-to-applications ratio was expected unchanged at 1.18, and the monetary base was seen at -16.3% versus -15.7%.
DOJ drops Powell probe
The Justice Department is not reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns on the central bank's building renovation. Attorney General Todd Blanche told Bloomberg he hasn't ruled out continuing to look at the project's oversight if evidence of wrongdoing emerges. The Fed's Inspector General said Wednesday it found no grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct, though its finding of lax oversight drew a fresh call from President Trump for Powell's resignation. Powell has stayed on as a governor since leaving the chair in May.
Rest of the list
Most of the remainder is TradingView chart commentary around gold, the dollar and the index futures ahead of and after NFP, plus routine calendar prints. Nothing there adds to the picture above. One Citi note appears twice in headline form, saying a rates selloff without a corresponding Fed repricing is concerning.
September payrolls miss badly
The main event already landed: US September nonfarm payrolls came in at +29,000 against consensus of +84,000, per the Walter Bloomberg feed carrying the Labor Department print. The reply detail on that same post adds private payrolls of 46,000 against 85,000 expected, unemployment at 4.2% versus 4.1% expected and 4.1% prior, U6 down to 7.6% from 7.7%, participation up to 61.8% from 61.6%, and average hourly earnings of 0.1% against 0.3% expected. So it is a soft hiring number with cooling wages, not a labour market falling apart. Everything written before the release in this section, and that is most of it, was positioning for exactly this number.
Fed is debating hikes, not cuts
Worth being clear on the direction of travel, because it is unusual: this Fed is tightening. Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan said rates likely need to rise by at least another 50 basis points to keep inflation from settling above 2%, framing those increases plus September's as merely reversing the three cuts already delivered, according to Nick Timiraos. Kashkari says more hikes are needed but has "no strong view" on October and is open-minded, with September projections calling for one more hike in 2026 and another in 2027. Against that, Vice Chair Jefferson said officials may take more time before moving again, echoing Williams, which Timiraos reads as two of the Fed's top leaders casting doubt on an October hike that investors had been pricing. Governor Cook, separately, flagged the AI buildout as a top inflation risk for 2027. Two-year Treasury yields had already briefly hit their lowest since 22 September, last down 12.68 basis points at 4.76%. The speaker calendar is heavy: Logan, Williams, Cook, Bowman, Jefferson, Waller, Barkin, Schmid, Collins and Kashkari all listed, plus Lagarde and Schnabel for the ECB, Bailey, Pill and Mann for the BoE, Nagel, Schlegel and the BoC's Rogers. Timiraos also notes Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the IMF fall meetings in Bangkok on 16 October, just before blackout.
French bond stress is the live risk in Europe
The French-German 10-year spread widened to 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, with Candriam's Nicolas Forest saying French debt is trading near European debt-crisis levels and RBC BlueBay's Mike Bell suggesting 200 basis points is possible in coming months. Five-year French sovereign CDS rose to 81 basis points, a multiyear high. Citi says a rates selloff without accompanying Fed repricing is concerning. A TradingView piece on SPY sets out the framework around this without taking a crisis view: it separates government debt stress, where heavy borrowing and higher rates are lifting financing costs with France singled out, from corporate and private credit, where weaker borrowers face expensive refinancing and leverage at company, fund and investor level can magnify losses. Its practical point is that falling Treasury yields are ambiguous unless you check credit spreads alongside them. Yields down with spreads steady or narrower is cheaper money, yields down with spreads sharply wider is lenders getting scared. Spanish 10-year auction cleared at 4.176%, up from 3.960%.
Inflation running hot in Europe, cooling in Asia
Eurozone September inflation jumped to 3.8% year on year against 3.6% consensus and 3.2% in August, with core ticking up to 2.5% from 2.4%, per Eurostat via the DeItaone feed. Headlines have the ECB under pressure to hike, with Rehn warning energy costs are lifting inflation risks while also saying soaring yields may curb that impact. Austria printed 3.5% and Croatia 4.6% in September. Switzerland is the outlier at 0.0% CPI, in line. South Korean inflation eased slightly. The BoE's own survey shows UK firms seeing smaller price rises with wage growth steady.
Tokyo CPI and the yen
Tokyo core CPI accelerated in September, which is being read as strengthening the case for further BOJ hikes, and the yen firmed on it. A TradingView USDJPY note cites Tokyo core at 2.7%, above the 2% target and above expectations, but notes the BOJ has given little clarity on timing while high US yields and a firm dollar still support the pair. The Nasdaq calendar entries for Tokyo CPI carried a 2.4% consensus against 1.8% prior for core. Note those calendar items had no usable article content behind them, just the posted figures. Japan's Tankan and BoJ Summary of Opinions are also on the calendar.
US activity data still firm
The hard data ahead of payrolls was not weak. ISM manufacturing PMI 54.5 against 54.8 expected, new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7 both beating, but prices paid at 77.9 against 72.9 consensus and 71.1 prior, a sharp jump. Construction spending +0.9% against flat expected. Initial claims 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1,701,000, both low. Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds at 3.7%. Challenger job cuts at -19.9%. The Fed's balance sheet slipped to 6,743B from 6,748B and reserve balances fell to 2.881T from 2.969T.
Pre-open tone and positioning
Dow futures were up 0.5% ahead of the open per IBD, with yields and oil easing; Nike plunged on earnings and Tesla Q3 deliveries were due before the bell. Vanguard was expecting a dismal jobs report, per IBD, and that is roughly what arrived. Bitcoin rose to $86,500 on "uptober" talk. Gold is the most crowded discussion in this section by far, with a long run of TradingView charts clustered around the 4,100 to 4,245 area ahead of NFP, all headline-only and none adding reported fact. Elsewhere in the calendar: euro zone unemployment steady at 6.4%, Italian unemployment up to 6.2% against 5.8% expected, euro zone manufacturing PMI 52.9, Germany 53.9, France 50.6, Italy 50.4, Spain 51.0, so Europe is holding just above expansion. Goldman is quoted estimating a sudden cutoff of US diesel exports could cut Latin American GDP by around 1%, softened by inventories and alternative suppliers.
Fed leadership steps back from an October hike
The dominant thread is a visible cooling of October hike expectations. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials "may take more time" before the next move, with decisions driven by incoming data, and noted inflation is still above target with upside risks while the economy and labour market remain resilient. Nick Timiraos framed this as Jefferson echoing New York Fed President John Williams, with two of the Fed's top leaders casting doubt on a hike that investors had been pricing more heavily a few days earlier. Neel Kashkari said he has no strong view on October and is open-minded, while still expecting more hikes, with his September projections showing one more in 2026 and another in 2027. He also said the economy keeps surprising him with its resilience, consumer spending is strong, the labour market broadly healthy, and that further hikes would press unevenly across the economy. Separate headlines have him saying the Fed must lower inflation pressures. Goldman Sachs has pushed its Fed hike forecast out to December. These are headline items, so that's the extent of what's stated.
Rates and the dollar sent mixed signals
Two different yield snapshots appear in the day's flow. One has the two-year briefly at its lowest since 22 September, down 12.68 basis points at 4.76%. A separate one has the ten-year up 4.72 basis points at 5.34% with the two-year flat at 4.883%. Taken together that points to a session where the front end rallied on the Fed repricing while the long end stayed under pressure, and the headlines reflect both sides: "Stocks Erase Gains as Inflation Risks Push Bond Yields Higher" and "Dollar Rallies on Higher T-note Yields and US Economic Strength" alongside "Morning Bid: Inflation relief gives bonds little reprieve."
US data: soft inflation, strong activity
The PCE round came in below consensus. Core PCE prices 3.30% against 3.60% expected and 4.40% prior, core PCE price index 0.2% versus 0.3%, headline PCE prices 5.0% versus 5.3% though up from 4.6%, and the monthly PCE price index 0.3% versus 0.4%. Activity was the opposite. Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 against 51.2 expected and 47.1 prior, ADP added 90K versus 73K expected and 36K before, real consumer spending ran 3.8% against 3.4%, personal spending 0.9%, and GDP sales 2.8% versus 2.2%. Personal income disappointed at 0.2% versus 0.5%. The goods trade deficit widened to 132.60B against 116.30B expected. Atlanta Fed GDPNow dropped to 3.7% from 5.0%. Dallas Fed PCE was unchanged at 1.90%. The Chicago Fed estimates September unemployment at 4.10%, slightly below August's 4.14%, citing better hiring prospects and slightly lower separations.
Friday payrolls are the next event
Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly earnings are due Friday, and several of the day's commentary pieces are positioned around it. Mortgage data was weak ahead of it: the MBA 30-year rate rose to 7.30% from 7.12%, applications fell 6.0%, and the refinance index dropped to 557.8 from 611.0.
Europe: inflation back up, equities lower
European stocks slipped as Q4 opened, with Investing.com citing energy costs and inflation, and a separate piece pointing to the French budget unveiling. German CPI and HICP both came in at 0.6% monthly against 0.5% expected and 0.2% prior, with the state readings running hot (Saxony 3.4%, Brandenburg 3.6%, Bavaria 3.2%). Italian HICP was 2.0% versus 1.8% expected and 0.1% prior. France was the outlier, CPI at -0.3% and HICP -0.4%, both less negative than the -0.5% consensus, with consumer spending at -0.5% against a flat forecast and French PPI at 4.80% from 3.50%. German unemployment change was 12K versus 1K expected, rate steady at 6.4%. The German 10-year Bund auction cleared at 3.580%, up from 3.390%. UK GDP was 0.5% versus 0.4%, business investment 1.8%, current account -19.9B, better than the -25.6B expected, and UK factory PMI showed growing inflation pressures. Swiss inflation held at 1% in September, with fuel price gains offsetting cheaper holidays. Bundesbank's Nagel said the ECB focuses on inflation rather than bond spreads, and the BoE's Mann criticised the monetary policy response to the Iran shock.
Gold and the metals complex
Gold slid 6% in September and was little changed afterwards as the softer PCE trimmed Fed hike bets, per Investing.com. Kitco reported spot gold and silver higher in early US trading Thursday, with soft inflation data keeping October hike expectations below earlier-week levels and jobless claims adding to the move. Most of the remaining gold items are TradingView chart posts pointing in both directions, which is worth noting only as positioning noise rather than news.
Trump on the Fed
In a Time magazine interview Trump said the Fed should not raise rates again and that its rate policies are hurting the US "more than inflation is hurting our country." He said twice that Fed officials, excluding Kevin Warsh, have "Trump derangement syndrome," and separately said he doesn't blame Warsh on rates. On the debt he said he didn't want to specify the means but that it could be paid off.
Asia and the economic calendar entries
Asia stocks rose on chipmaker gains and the soft US inflation print, with the Nikkei outperforming. A large block of Nasdaq economic calendar items for Japan, Korea, Australia and Singapore was retrieved, but the pages returned only site boilerplate with no data, so all that is available is what the item lines themselves carry: Japan Tankan large manufacturers consensus 25 versus 22 prior and big manufacturing outlook 22 versus 17, Australian manufacturing PMI consensus 49.3 against 52.0 prior, which would be a drop into contraction, Korean exports consensus 61.7% versus 68.7% and imports 21.5% versus 22.4%, and Korean manufacturing PMI prior 52.3. The RBA Financial Stability Review and the BoJ Summary of Opinions are both on the calendar with no content retrieved. Japan housing starts came in at 6.1% against 6.9% expected.
Elsewhere
Russia posted monthly GDP of 0.8% from 0.6%, unemployment 2.2%, but retail sales well short at 3.3% against 5.6% expected. Brazil's budget balance came in at -116.000B versus -109.400B expected with gross debt-to-GDP at 82.9%. US crude inventories built 0.922M against an expected 0.700M draw, while distillates drew 2.251M versus 0.200M expected and gasoline drew 1.684M. The rest of the section is routine calendar prints and chart commentary.
Soft PCE, but the bond market didn't buy the relief
The core of yesterday's US data was an inflation print that came in below expectations across the board: the PCE price index rose 0.3% against 0.4% expected (previous 0.1%), core PCE price index 0.2% versus 0.3%, headline PCE prices 5.0% year over year against 5.3% expected but up from 4.6%, and core PCE prices 3.30% versus 3.60% consensus and down sharply from 4.40%. The GDP price index came in at 6.1% against 6.4% expected. The activity side was firm rather than soft: personal spending 0.9% versus 0.8%, real consumer spending 3.8% versus 3.4% and a big jump from 0.5%, GDP sales 2.8% versus 2.2%. Personal income lagged at 0.2% against 0.5% expected, and corporate profits came in at 7.7% versus 8.2%. Headlines in the list frame the reaction as inflation relief giving bonds little reprieve and softer PCE failing to pressure the dollar, with Asian stocks rising on the print plus chipmaker gains and the Nikkei outperforming, while European stocks slipped.
Rates backdrop: worst Treasury quarter since 1994
A widely circulated market post reports the 10-year Treasury yield finished Q3 at 5.29%, up 87 basis points on the quarter, the largest quarterly rise in more than three decades, attributed largely to real yields approaching 3% as markets repriced the Fed. That is a tightening-bias backdrop, not an easing one: Goldman Sachs pushed its Fed rate hike forecast out to December after the cooler inflation data, per three separate Investing.com headlines. JPMorgan upgraded Forbright specifically on rate hike benefit. Mortgage data runs with the yield story, the MBA 30-year rate rose to 7.30% from 7.12%, applications fell 6.0% after a 1.5% drop, the purchase index slipped to 148.2 from 154.9 and the refinance index to 557.8 from 611.0.
Fed speakers lean toward unfinished business on inflation
Kashkari said the US economy keeps surprising with its resilience, with strong consumer spending and a broadly healthy labor market, and noted that further rate hikes would put uneven pressure across the economy; a separate headline has him saying the central bank must lower inflation pressures. Governor Cook said inflation has been too high for too long and that she is committed to returning it to target while preserving labor-market strength, and per the summary she did not comment on the softer inflation data or the October decision. More Fed speak is on the calendar: Goolsbee, Barkin, Cook again, and a Kashkari appearance, plus ECB's Schnabel and Elderson and an ECB non-monetary policy meeting.
Trump versus Powell over the Fed renovation
Trump posted at length on the Inspector General's report on the Fed headquarters renovation, citing findings that the Board did not obtain a project cost estimate from the construction manager until January 2026, three and a half years after construction began and after more than $2 billion in construction had been awarded, and that as of July 2026 no guaranteed maximum price had been set, so the Board still lacks cost certainty. The report puts the cost at at least $2.5 billion; Trump said he expects $3.5 billion or more, called for Powell to resign immediately or be sued by the government for corruption or incompetence, asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to review the report, and said he does not want the building named after himself. Separately he is quoted saying inflation numbers are way down other than for oil, and that he "doesn't blame Kevin" on interest rates.
US activity data mixed
Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 against 51.2 expected and 47.1 prior, a large upside surprise. ADP private payrolls came in at 90K versus 73K expected and 36K prior. Against that, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow dropped to 3.7% from 5.0%. The goods trade deficit widened to $132.60B against $116.30B expected, wholesale inventories rose 0.7% versus 0.5%, retail inventories ex auto 0.1%. The Dallas Fed trimmed PCE measure was unchanged at 1.90%.
Europe: inflation firmer, growth patchy
German CPI and HICP both came in at 0.6% against 0.5% expected and 0.2% prior, with the state breakdowns showing Saxony at 3.4%, Brandenburg 3.6% and Bavaria 3.2% year over year. German import prices rose 1.0% against 0.6% expected, retail sales 1.3% versus 1.6% expected, unemployment change 12K against 1K expected with the rate steady at 6.4%. Italy's HICP hit 2.0% versus 1.8% and CPI 0.7% versus 0.2%, with consumer confidence falling to 91.2 from 94.5 while business confidence improved to 91.9; Italian unemployment climbed to 6.2% in August. France was the outlier on prices, CPI -0.3% and HICP -0.4%, both less negative than expected, with consumer spending -0.5% against flat expected and PPI at 4.80% year over year. Swiss inflation held at 1% in September, with fuel price gains offsetting cheaper holidays. UK Q2 figures beat slightly, GDP 0.5% versus 0.4% and business investment 1.8% versus 1.7%, with the current account deficit narrower at £19.9B; a separate PMI headline says UK factories report growing inflation pressures. The German 10-year Bund auction cleared at 3.580%, up from 3.390%.
Commodities, energy inventories and gold
EIA weekly data showed crude stocks building 0.922M against a 0.700M draw expected, but products drawing hard, gasoline -1.684M versus -0.500M expected and distillates -2.251M versus -0.200M, with refinery utilization down 1.5% and crude runs down 0.554M. Gold was little changed after a 6% September slide as the softer PCE cut Fed hike bets, per Investing.com. A large block of the section is TradingView retail trade ideas on gold, XAUUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and bitcoin; these are opinion posts, not news, and point in opposing directions.
Rest of the world and what's still ahead
Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate to 12.25%. Russian data showed monthly GDP at 0.8% from 0.6%, unemployment 2.2%, but retail sales well short at 3.3% versus 5.6% expected. Brazil's fiscal numbers deteriorated, budget balance -116.0B against -109.4B expected and gross debt-to-GDP at 82.9%. Taiwan allocated $13 billion to shield consumers from high energy costs, per OilPrice. A large portion of this section is forward calendar entries rather than released data: the Japan Tankan series (large manufacturers index consensus 25 from 22, big manufacturing outlook 22 from 17, large non-manufacturers 36 from 37, big industry CAPEX 12.3% from 11.5%), the BoJ Summary of Opinions, China's PMIs (manufacturing consensus 50.1 from 49.8, non-manufacturing 49.2, RatingDog manufacturing 51.7), Australian CPI (monthly indicator consensus 4.10% from 3.50%) and the RBA Financial Stability Review, Korean trade and PMI, and a US Kashkari appearance. These were pulled as full-text reads but the pages returned only Nasdaq calendar boilerplate with no data behind them, so the consensus and previous figures in the line items are all that is actually there.
Core PCE undershoots every forecast
The session's anchor is the August PCE report. Core PCE came in at 3.0% year on year against 3.3% expected, below the entire range of 51 Bloomberg forecasts, which ran 3.1% to 3.5%. Headline PCE was 3.4% versus 3.7% forecast. Per the posts covering it, the surprise came mostly from downward revisions to earlier months rather than August itself: July was restated from 3.34% to 2.98%, and core rose 0.25% on the month, leaving the three-month annualised rate near 2%. Nick Timiraos cautioned that the report doesn't change the underlying trend much relative to what was already known, and flagged that new methodological changes add more than usual uncertainty to the year-on-year figures. One item notes breadth is still wide: 51% of the PCE basket is rising at 3% or more annually, though the share above 3% on a six-month annualised basis fell to 44% in August.
Growth and spending came in hot alongside it
Final Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with final Q2 core PCE at 3.3% against 3.6% consensus. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped 0.6% in August, described as the strongest month since March 2025, and ADP private payrolls came in at +90k versus roughly 68k expected. David Sacks summed the combination as growth beating, inflation cooling and jobs better than expected.
October hike odds drop
The immediate read-through is a Fed seen on hold in October. Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next hike from October to December, now looking for 3.0% Q4/Q4 core. Kalshi is quoted at 65% for no October hike against 31% for a 25bp increase. Headlines report stocks pushing higher and the dollar slipping on the lower hike odds, and spot gold extending gains, last up 0.6% at $4,206.29. Against that, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said inflation has been too high for too long and that she remains committed to bringing it back to target while preserving the labour market; she did not address the data or the October decision directly. Waller, Williams, Goolsbee, Barr and Bowman are all on the speaking calendar.
Long end still under pressure
One headline has the US 10-year yield hitting 5.304%, the highest since May 2002 and above the 2007 peak, attributed to energy-driven inflation concerns and stronger US data. That backdrop is showing up elsewhere: the MBA 30-year fixed contract rate rose to 7.30%, up 18 basis points in a week and 84 basis points year on year, with the 15-year at 6.56%. Auction results were similar in tone abroad, the UK 10-year gilt clearing at 5.383% against 5.155% previously, Italy's 10-year BTP at 4.58% from 4.10% and the 5-year at 4.08% from 3.44%.
Europe's inflation reaccelerates
The European side runs the other way. German September flash HICP was 3.3% year on year from 2.9% in August, above the 3.2% forecast and 0.6% month on month, driven mainly by energy. France came in at 3.4% on the preliminary reading, also on energy, with a separate headline citing 3%; Italy surged above 4%, Poland to 4.0%, and Spanish core CPI to 3.1%. Euro zone inflation expectations in the Commission survey rose to 35.2 from 33.0 and selling price expectations to 20.3 from 16.9, while the overall business and consumer index at 97.9 missed the 99.0 consensus. Headlines frame this as raising pressure on the ECB to hike, with European stocks described as falling or flat as the hot EU prints offset the soft US data.
France, Lagarde and the BoE
France's 10-year spread over Germany passed 120 basis points for the first time in 14 years, tied to political uncertainty and accelerating inflation, and ahead of a record €340 billion issuance programme. Lagarde told La Croix that France's debt at 120% of GDP is serious with no path to lowering it, ruled out a 2027 presidential run as "not a good idea at all," and said any early departure from the ECB would only be by a few months. Separately, the Bank of England warned that AI valuations are vulnerable to a sharper correction than July's, citing stretched positioning and elevated leverage, with possible spillover to global growth expectations and sovereign bond markets, alongside Middle East conflict and debt risks.
Softer US second-tier data
Not everything in the US prints was strong. JOLTS openings came in at 7.079M against 7.230M consensus and 7.335M prior, CB Consumer Confidence fell to 81.9 versus 89.2 expected and 88.6 prior, and the Dallas Fed services measures turned negative, with Texas services outlook at -1.8 from 4.2 and services revenues at -0.9 from 6.6. Redbook was 8.2% from 7.6% and the House Price Index rose 0.3% against 0.1% expected. API crude stocks built 1.019M against an expected 1.9M draw.
Elsewhere in central banks and regional data
Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate to 12.25% and Mozambique held at 9.25%. Australian August inflation was reported as stubbornly high despite a run of rate hikes, with the monthly CPI indicator consensus at 4.10% against a 3.50% prior. Canadian GDP was flat at 0.0%, in line. Brazil's CAGED net payroll jobs came in at 165.83K against 95.70K expected, unemployment held at 5.3%, and IGP-M was 1.57% after -0.22%. Sweden's central bank warned on inflation risks from supply issues. On the Fed governance side, the inspector general's 120-page report found no administrative misconduct and no grounds for criminal referral over the headquarters renovation, critical of project management but closing the formal legal threat to Powell; the Fed also finalised its bank stress test overhaul.
A note on the full-text items
The twenty items read in full here were all Nasdaq economic calendar entries for Asia-Pacific data, and the pages returned only site boilerplate with no data behind them. So all that's actually available from those is what the headlines carry: the China PMI set (manufacturing consensus 50.1 versus 49.8 prior, non-manufacturing 49.2 versus 49.0, RatingDog manufacturing 51.7 versus 51.5, services 51.3 versus 51.4, composite prior 49.5), the Australian CPI and credit series, New Zealand's ANZ business confidence at a prior 53.7, and Japanese retail and production numbers. No released figures, just scheduled events and consensus.
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