News and price dashboard

Core PCE undershoots every forecast

The session's anchor is the August PCE report. Core PCE came in at 3.0% year on year against 3.3% expected, below the entire range of 51 Bloomberg forecasts, which ran 3.1% to 3.5%. Headline PCE was 3.4% versus 3.7% forecast. Per the posts covering it, the surprise came mostly from downward revisions to earlier months rather than August itself: July was restated from 3.34% to 2.98%, and core rose 0.25% on the month, leaving the three-month annualised rate near 2%. Nick Timiraos cautioned that the report doesn't change the underlying trend much relative to what was already known, and flagged that new methodological changes add more than usual uncertainty to the year-on-year figures. One item notes breadth is still wide: 51% of the PCE basket is rising at 3% or more annually, though the share above 3% on a six-month annualised basis fell to 44% in August.

Growth and spending came in hot alongside it

Final Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with final Q2 core PCE at 3.3% against 3.6% consensus. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped 0.6% in August, described as the strongest month since March 2025, and ADP private payrolls came in at +90k versus roughly 68k expected. David Sacks summed the combination as growth beating, inflation cooling and jobs better than expected.

October hike odds drop

The immediate read-through is a Fed seen on hold in October. Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next hike from October to December, now looking for 3.0% Q4/Q4 core. Kalshi is quoted at 65% for no October hike against 31% for a 25bp increase. Headlines report stocks pushing higher and the dollar slipping on the lower hike odds, and spot gold extending gains, last up 0.6% at $4,206.29. Against that, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said inflation has been too high for too long and that she remains committed to bringing it back to target while preserving the labour market; she did not address the data or the October decision directly. Waller, Williams, Goolsbee, Barr and Bowman are all on the speaking calendar.

Long end still under pressure

One headline has the US 10-year yield hitting 5.304%, the highest since May 2002 and above the 2007 peak, attributed to energy-driven inflation concerns and stronger US data. That backdrop is showing up elsewhere: the MBA 30-year fixed contract rate rose to 7.30%, up 18 basis points in a week and 84 basis points year on year, with the 15-year at 6.56%. Auction results were similar in tone abroad, the UK 10-year gilt clearing at 5.383% against 5.155% previously, Italy's 10-year BTP at 4.58% from 4.10% and the 5-year at 4.08% from 3.44%.

Europe's inflation reaccelerates

The European side runs the other way. German September flash HICP was 3.3% year on year from 2.9% in August, above the 3.2% forecast and 0.6% month on month, driven mainly by energy. France came in at 3.4% on the preliminary reading, also on energy, with a separate headline citing 3%; Italy surged above 4%, Poland to 4.0%, and Spanish core CPI to 3.1%. Euro zone inflation expectations in the Commission survey rose to 35.2 from 33.0 and selling price expectations to 20.3 from 16.9, while the overall business and consumer index at 97.9 missed the 99.0 consensus. Headlines frame this as raising pressure on the ECB to hike, with European stocks described as falling or flat as the hot EU prints offset the soft US data.

France, Lagarde and the BoE

France's 10-year spread over Germany passed 120 basis points for the first time in 14 years, tied to political uncertainty and accelerating inflation, and ahead of a record €340 billion issuance programme. Lagarde told La Croix that France's debt at 120% of GDP is serious with no path to lowering it, ruled out a 2027 presidential run as "not a good idea at all," and said any early departure from the ECB would only be by a few months. Separately, the Bank of England warned that AI valuations are vulnerable to a sharper correction than July's, citing stretched positioning and elevated leverage, with possible spillover to global growth expectations and sovereign bond markets, alongside Middle East conflict and debt risks.

Softer US second-tier data

Not everything in the US prints was strong. JOLTS openings came in at 7.079M against 7.230M consensus and 7.335M prior, CB Consumer Confidence fell to 81.9 versus 89.2 expected and 88.6 prior, and the Dallas Fed services measures turned negative, with Texas services outlook at -1.8 from 4.2 and services revenues at -0.9 from 6.6. Redbook was 8.2% from 7.6% and the House Price Index rose 0.3% against 0.1% expected. API crude stocks built 1.019M against an expected 1.9M draw.

Elsewhere in central banks and regional data

Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate to 12.25% and Mozambique held at 9.25%. Australian August inflation was reported as stubbornly high despite a run of rate hikes, with the monthly CPI indicator consensus at 4.10% against a 3.50% prior. Canadian GDP was flat at 0.0%, in line. Brazil's CAGED net payroll jobs came in at 165.83K against 95.70K expected, unemployment held at 5.3%, and IGP-M was 1.57% after -0.22%. Sweden's central bank warned on inflation risks from supply issues. On the Fed governance side, the inspector general's 120-page report found no administrative misconduct and no grounds for criminal referral over the headquarters renovation, critical of project management but closing the formal legal threat to Powell; the Fed also finalised its bank stress test overhaul.

A note on the full-text items

The twenty items read in full here were all Nasdaq economic calendar entries for Asia-Pacific data, and the pages returned only site boilerplate with no data behind them. So all that's actually available from those is what the headlines carry: the China PMI set (manufacturing consensus 50.1 versus 49.8 prior, non-manufacturing 49.2 versus 49.0, RatingDog manufacturing 51.7 versus 51.5, services 51.3 versus 51.4, composite prior 49.5), the Australian CPI and credit series, New Zealand's ANZ business confidence at a prior 53.7, and Japanese retail and production numbers. No released figures, just scheduled events and consensus.

Long yields at multi-decade highs

The dominant thread is the long end of the Treasury curve. A market feed post reports the 30-year yield at 5.58%, within a basis point of its highest since 2002 and up for a sixth straight session, with the 10-year at 5.24%, the highest since 2007, citing high oil prices and inflation among the drivers. Barclays is quoted saying the 30-year could reach 6% if the AI investment boom delivers a sustained pickup in productivity, which would keep growth faster and push up long-run rate expectations. Bill auctions repriced with it: the 3-month went at 4.110% against 4.015% prior and the 6-month at 4.285% against 4.155%. MBA data via the same feed shows the 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate at 7.30%, up 18bp in a week and 84bp year over year, with the 15-year at 6.56%. Two Nasdaq columns note the dollar firming alongside T-note yields.

Fed talk pulls October hike odds down

The rate debate here is about hikes, not cuts. Odds of an October hike fell to about 50% from around 70% after New York Fed's Williams said there is "no rush to act," while still seeing one more hike possibly needed by year-end. Nick Timiraos reads that as deliberate pushback against an October move. On the other side, Governor Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed, that he counts only two months of data consistent with 2% core PCE over the past 20, and that he sees inflation risks rising while labour-market risks recede, with growth accelerating from the 2% first-half pace on AI investment. Goolsbee called prolonged above-target inflation "playing with fire." Musalem warned that pulling back too far on communication risks volatility. Deutsche Bank is cited expecting two more 25bp hikes, in December and March. Polymarket has another 2026 hike at 90% yes, no change after December at 80% no, and 50bp-plus of cuts by December at 100% no. Today's speaker list is long: Waller, Williams, Goolsbee, Barr, Bowman, Barkin and Cook.

Soft US data against the hawkish tone

The data cut the other way. JOLTS job openings came in at 7.079M against 7.230M expected and 7.335M prior, and CB consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 versus 89.2 expected and 88.6 prior. The Dallas Fed's Texas services outlook fell to -1.8 from 4.2, with services revenues at -0.9 from 6.6. Final Q2 GDP was revised to +2.2% against consensus +1.5%, with the Q2 PCE price index at +5.0% and core PCE +3.3%, below the +3.6% consensus. Housing was firmer, with the FHFA house price index +0.3% versus +0.1% expected, Case-Shiller 20-city flat non-seasonally adjusted, and Redbook retail sales at 8.2% from 7.6%. Investing.com attributes a sharp drop in October hike bets to the combination of soft data and dovish comments. Ahead today: ADP, core PCE and oil inventories. Timiraos flags that August PCE carries more year-over-year uncertainty than usual because of new methodological changes, with forecasters looking for core around 0.27%. API crude stocks rose 1.019M against an expected 1.900M draw.

Euro zone inflation reaccelerates

European inflation surprised higher almost everywhere. German flash September CPI and HICP both came in at 3.3% year over year from 2.9%, and 0.6% month over month from 0.2%, above the 3.2% forecast and described as the highest in nearly three years, driven by energy costs. French preliminary inflation is reported at 3.4% (a separate headline cites 3%, both attributed to energy), Italian inflation above 4%, Polish inflation at 4.0%, and Spanish core CPI at 3.1% from 2.9% even as headline Spanish CPI slowed to 0.3%. Euro zone survey data showed selling price expectations jumping to 20.3 from 16.9 and consumer inflation expectations to 35.2 from 33.0, with the composite sentiment index at 97.9, a touch below the 99.0 consensus. ECB's DeMarco said stronger core inflation could be grounds to act. Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Nagel and Mauderer all speak. The sovereign side is feeling it: the French 10-year spread over Germany passed 120bp for the first time in 14 years, tied to political uncertainty, accelerating inflation and a record €340bn issuance plan, while Italy sold 5-year BTPs at 4.08% (from 3.44%) and 10-years at 4.58% (from 4.10%).

UK: BoE financial stability warning and heavy credit data

The Bank of England's warning is the substantive UK item, flagging Middle East conflict and AI-related debt as financial stability risks, and specifically that AI valuations remain vulnerable to a sharper selloff than July's, with stretched positioning and elevated leverage potentially spilling into global growth expectations and sovereign bond markets. MPC member Taylor separately argued the case for a rate hike is "not compelling" and questioned the practicality of a single hike, citing lagging second-round inflation risks. UK credit data ran hot: net lending to individuals 6.874B versus 6.200B expected, consumer credit 2.464B versus 1.900B, mortgage lending 4.41B from 4.08B, M4 +0.4% versus +0.1% expected, though mortgage approvals at 54.92K slightly missed. The 10-year gilt auction cleared at 5.383% against 5.155% previously. The FTSE pared gains as oil rebounded.

Asia-Pacific: RBA hikes, Australian CPI below forecast

The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, as expected. August Australian inflation rose to 4% but came in below forecasts, described in one piece as stubbornly high despite the run of hikes. The Nasdaq calendar lists today's Australian monthly CPI indicator with a 4.10% consensus against 3.50% prior, trimmed mean and weighted mean both 3.6% prior, building approvals 9.00% prior and private sector credit 0.5% expected. Separately, China unveiled a rate cut and mortgage subsidies to support growth, with today's official manufacturing PMI seen at 50.1 from 49.8, non-manufacturing 49.2 from 49.0, and the RatingDog manufacturing and services readings at 51.7 and 51.3. Japan's leading index came in at 117.7 against 118.1 expected. Canadian GDP was flat at 0.0%, in line. Banxico's governor said Mexico can set its own rate path independently of the Fed. Brazil's CAGED payrolls beat at 165.83K versus 95.70K expected.

A note on the calendar items read in full

The twenty items marked as read in full are all Nasdaq economic calendar pages, and the pages themselves returned no data, just site boilerplate. Everything usable from them is the consensus and previous figures in their own headlines, which are folded into the regional paragraphs above. Treat them as a schedule, not as reporting.

Gold and the technical chatter

Gold is the most-covered single asset in the list, mostly through TradingView technical posts referencing levels around 4,140 to 4,254. Kitco reports spot gold holding above $4,150 in early US trading Tuesday, stabilising after Monday's steep selloff, with elevated oil prices, Treasury yields and Fed hike expectations in the background, and separately quotes MarketVector's Yang saying calm equity markets could help gold hold support despite surging bond yields. Lyn Alden is quoted saying she still holds gold but that the Fed's tools aren't suited to this kind of inflation. Beyond that, the TradingView entries on SPY, the Dow, NQ, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDCAD, NZDUSD and bitcoin are level-and-setup posts rather than news, and the equity-market live blogs note the Dow wavering ahead of inflation data with Micron's report due. One further item: Europe's gas prices are reported higher as a Hormuz LNG crunch deepens the supply squeeze, which connects back to the energy-driven European inflation prints.

Williams pulls October back to a coin flip

The single most market-relevant thing in this section is New York Fed President John Williams saying, in prepared remarks at the University of Buffalo on Tuesday, that "with the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." He kept one more hike in his base case, saying that if the economy tracks his forecast, "one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year," while stressing that is just his forecast. Odds on an October move fell to about 50% from around 70% on the back of it. Nick Timiraos framed it as deliberate pushback against October pricing that had built above 50% and as high as 70% since Chair Warsh's press conference two weeks ago, and he noted the FOMC vice chair does not usually freelance. Williams also gave numbers: inflation ending this year near 3.5% and falling toward target by 2028, growth of 2.25% this year, unemployment at 4% next year. He named AI investment as adding to price pressure, and said tariff-driven pressure has largely abated provided there are no fresh import tax increases.

The rest of the Fed leans the other way

Williams is the dove-ish outlier in tone, not in direction. Governor Michael Barr, in headline-only items, said he does not see inflation reaching 2% in a timely way unless policy is adjusted, that further policy adjustments are likely needed, and per Timiraos counted only two months of data consistent with 2% core PCE over the past twenty-odd. Chicago's Austan Goolsbee said outright that being 5-1/2 years above target "is playing with fire," said the Fed must get evidence that supposedly temporary pressures are actually fading before it can cut, and flagged AI productivity expectations and large deficits as things that could overheat the economy now. He also said oil could fall fairly quickly but the harder problem is getting refineries back online, and added that "nothing in the Federal Reserve Act says make sure bond market is happy." Cook is headline-only, seeing further inflationary pressure ahead. Separately, St Louis's Alberto Musalem used a London School of Economics speech to argue against Warsh's push for a quieter Fed: pulling back too far on communication leaves the public guessing, adds uncertainty premiums, and means higher and more volatile rates and inflation. Prediction markets are still pricing the hawkish side, with Polymarket at 86-90% on another 2026 hike and roughly 88% priced in futures, against a September dot-plot median of 4.1% year-end after the Fed lifted the range to 3.75-4.00%.

Long end at multi-decade highs

The backdrop to all of this is a bond selloff. Headlines have the 30-year at 5.58%, within a basis point of its highest since 2002 and up for a sixth straight session, and the 10-year at 5.24%, the highest since 2007, with oil and inflation cited. Live quotes inside the read articles show the 10-year around 5.26% and the 30-year around 5.59%, with the front end easing after Williams (2-year down 0.71%, 3-month down 0.79%), which steepened the 10-2 spread sharply to about 31bp. Barclays said in a headline-only item that the 30-year could reach 6% if the AI boom delivers a sustained productivity acceleration. Cathie Wood posted that rates are rising on real yields more than inflation, with real growth surprising to the high side, responding to a Bill Ackman argument that higher rates may not curb demand for intelligence and energy. Equities took it calmly: the S&P was down about 0.17%, the Dow off 0.25%, Nasdaq roughly flat, VIX around 16. Dollar index near 101.1 and firmer. WTI was down 3.77% to around $89 and Brent off 2% near $95.83.

Wednesday's data stack

Wednesday, September 30 is the heavy session. ADP nonfarm employment change at 7:15 ET is forecast at 73K after 38K. At 7:30 ET, GDP is forecast at 1.5% against 2.1% prior, monthly core PCE at 0.3% after 0.2%, annual core PCE at 3.4% after 3.3%, headline PCE 3.7% annual, personal spending 0.8% after 0.2%, and a goods trade balance of -116.3B. Chicago PMI at 8:45 is forecast 51.2 after 47.1, Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 5.0%, and EIA crude inventories at 9:30 after a 2.969M build. Goolsbee speaks again at 4:10pm and Kashkari at 5:00pm. MBA figures include a 30-year mortgage rate of 7.12%.

RBA hikes, and central banks split from the Fed

The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in a unanimous vote, its fourth hike this year and the highest in roughly fifteen years, with core inflation near 3.6% and the door left open to more. It was largely priced, and AUD/USD still fell, trading below 0.7000 as US yields pushed toward 5.30%. A broader Investing.com piece lays out the divergence: Banxico held at 6.5% for a third meeting but removed its "prolonged pause" language with inflation at 3.42%, and Governor Rodríguez told Bloomberg the bank can set its path independently of the Fed. The BoJ has raised to 1.0%, its highest since September 1995, on a 6-3 vote, with Wolfe Research calling it the most critical factor in the global policy split. The ECB is at a 2.25% deposit rate with futures pricing two to three more hikes in 2026, and Lagarde repeated in headline-only items that a measured, moderate response remains appropriate. At the Bank of England, Alan Taylor said the case for a hike is not compelling and questioned whether a single move is even practical without markets reading it as the start of a series, pointing to how March's hold was misread; Ramsden, headline-only, said rates may need to rise if inflation pressures build. That piece also noted USD/MXN at 18.08, USD/JPY at 157.27 and GBP/USD at 1.3226. Treat its trade framing as the author's own view, not fact.

Gold and the rate-sensitive corners

Gold is the clearest expression of the yield move. It fell around 4% at the start of the week to a seven-week low, near $4,165 spot at one point, with silver down about 4.5% near $61.29, and headlines tie it to higher oil, higher yields and rising Fed hike bets. It stabilised Tuesday, with futures up 0.92% near $4,206 and spot holding above $4,150 into JOLTS, PCE and payrolls. Kitco carried MarketVector's Yang arguing that unusually calm equity markets are an important source of support while yields surge. There are many headline-only TradingView gold posts, mostly bearish, plus BMO and Lyn Alden commentary; none of that is anything more than opinion. On the rate transmission side, a TradingView writeup on Rocket Companies notes the stock at a 52-week low, with mortgage rates pushed up by Treasury yields and the Fed's recent hike, management guiding Q3 2026 adjusted revenue to $2.5-2.7bn, below Q2, Q2 interest expense of $374m, and Redfin and Mr Cooper integration underway with $400m of Mr Cooper synergies targeted by end-2026. Also note a Treasury long-end buyback schedule cited in a BTC post, operations of at least $4bn each on Oct 1, 8, 15 and 27 and Nov 4.

The rest

The remainder is bulk: dozens of TradingView chart setups on gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and bitcoin, routine bill and BTF auction results (US 3-month at 4.110% and 6-month at 4.285%, both up from prior), and minor overseas data, including Japan's corporate services price index at 3.7% versus 3.6% expected, India manufacturing output at 9.0%, Singapore industrial production at -0.5%, and a UK BRC shop price index expected unchanged at 1.5%, which FTSE headlines credited for a firmer London session. China announced a rate cut and mortgage subsidies in a headline-only item. Two of the listed items, the Australia RBA rate statement and the UK BRC shop price index, came back as empty Nasdaq calendar pages with no data behind them.

Yields and the hawkish Fed repricing

The dominant story into the open is the bond selloff and what it's doing to everything else. Walter Bloomberg's feed relays Deutsche Bank's view that Fed policymakers remain broadly hawkish, with two more 25bp hikes expected in December and March, and that a tighter labour market, sticky underlying inflation or stronger AI-driven investment demand could put an October hike back in play. Chart commentary read in full puts the 10-year near a 19-year high around 5.27% and says the market is pricing roughly 70% odds of an October move, with the Fed having already lifted the target range to 3.75%-4.00% in September. Polymarket has a December 25bp hike at 75%. The Investing.com quote panel alongside the China story showed the 10-year at 5.221, the 30-year at 5.542 and the 10-2 spread at 31bp, widening 15% on the day, with the Dollar Index at 101.03. Headlines across Investing.com and Nasdaq carry the same thread: the dollar holding near a two-month peak, "soaring T-note yields support the dollar", and a battered bond market bracing for a new era of interest rates.

Gold's 4% break

Gold is the clearest casualty. Several full-text chart notes describe a roughly 4% single-session drop to a low near $4,110, with spot quoted around $4,140-4,165 in the rebound and gold futures at $4,189.50, up 0.51%, on the Investing.com panel. The reason given consistently is not gold-specific: higher oil prices reviving inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and rising odds of further Fed tightening. One note cites Brent around $106 on US-Iran/Hormuz tension, while the Investing.com board showed Brent at 96.03, down 1.84%, and WTI at 90.42, down 2.35%, so the oil figure you use depends on the source. Kitco's feed had spot gold near $4,165 down 2.78% and silver near $61.29 down 4.49% in early Monday US trade. The very large cluster of XAUUSD posts here is retail chart work, mostly leaning bearish with 4,280 and 4,192-4,200 flagged as the levels people are watching, and I'd treat it as sentiment, not information.

China eases via PSL and mortgage subsidies

The PBOC cut the rate on its pledged supplementary lending by 25 basis points, taking one-year PSL to 1.5% from 1.75%, and widened the facility to cover water, power grid, computing, communications, urban pipeline and logistics investment. Relending quotas rose too: sci-tech and technological upgrading up 200 billion yuan to 1.4 trillion, farm and small business up 500 billion to 4.85 trillion, private enterprise up 300 billion to 1.3 trillion. Separately, from October 1 China will subsidise interest on new commercial mortgages for eligible first-time buyers, 1 percentage point a year for up to five years, loans capped at 1 million yuan per household, homes limited to 120 square metres and 1.5 million yuan, on a one-year trial. The context: a 4.5%-5% growth target, Q2 growth of 4.3%, and weaker industrial output, retail sales and investment at the start of Q3 alongside a still-depressed property sector. Hao Zhou of Guotai Haitong called it a more coordinated effort to lift both investment and household demand. Zhaopeng Xing of ANZ said rising US rates limit room for further PBOC easing and that a 1.5 million yuan cap probably only buys a home in a third-tier city.

Other central banks pulling the same direction

The RBA raised rates 25bp to 4.60% and, per the Investing.com headline, signalled more hikes as inflation risks mount; the rate statement itself is on the calendar. Lagarde said measured ECB hikes to quell inflation remain appropriate, and the BoE's Ramsden said rates may need to rise if inflation pressures build, with a Citi/YouGov survey headline showing UK inflation expectations rising in September. Fed governor Cook, per Nick Timiraos, mapped out how AI is adding to demand-side pressure and said she expects continued pressure on inflation in coming months, with possible limited easing later as productivity benefits accrue. Barkin, Cook and Bowman all appear on the speakers list.

Data and auctions

Short-end auction results all cleared higher than the prior round: US 3-month bills at 4.110% against 4.015%, 6-month at 4.285% against 4.155%, French BTFs at 2.700%, 2.920% and 3.240% versus 2.639%, 2.898% and 3.161%. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.8 against 11.6 previously. Japan's corporate services price index ran at 3.7% versus 3.6% expected and prior, described in an Investing.com headline as a two-year high. Elsewhere in the calendar: Singapore industrial production at -0.5% from 2.3%, India manufacturing output 9.0% from 8.2%, Brazil's current account at -5.06B against -4.90B expected, and Italy's non-EU trade balance at 2.00B from 6.99B. Note that the Nasdaq calendar pages themselves returned only site boilerplate, so the figures in those lines are all there is.

The week's real events, and positioning

Everything here points at the same two releases. ADP and August PCE are due September 30, September payrolls October 2, with JOLTS, consumer confidence, Fed speakers and oil inventories filling today. Citi has a headline saying the October Fed meeting hinges on that data. The latest CFTC positioning shows S&P 500 net shorts deepening to -133.2K from -100.5K while Nasdaq 100 net longs grew to 56.1K from 33.7K, gold net longs slipped to 225.9K from 230.3K, and shorts built across GBP (-82.6K from -58.7K), EUR (-52.3K from -27.0K) and CAD (-53.2K from -37.6K). On the equity side, the Investing.com panel showed the Dow down 0.67%, the S&P down 0.77% and the Nasdaq down 0.92%, with headlines attributing the prior session to an OpenAI training halt weighing on the AI trade plus the continuing bond rout, and a separate piece noting Goldman's finding that S&P 500 breadth is at its narrowest since the dot-com bubble.

Bond rout drives everything

The single driver behind Monday's tape was the Treasury market. The 10-year closed at 5.237%, up 0.96% on the day, with Reuters noting the benchmark yield touched its highest level since June 2007. The 5-year rose 1.22% to 5.066% and the 2-year 1.23% to 4.924%, with the 30-year at 5.553%. That repricing follows the Fed's hike earlier this month, its first in three years, and markets now put roughly 68-75% odds on another 25bp move at the October 27-28 FOMC depending on the source: Barchart cites 68%, Reuters 70% in the gold piece and about 75% in its writeup of Cook's speech, and a Polymarket line in this list shows 75% for a December hike as well. Equities gave way with it, the S&P 500 down 0.76% to 7,684.98, the Nasdaq off 0.92% and the Dow off 0.67%, with VIX up 8.07% to 16.07.

Gold and silver break down

Precious metals took the brunt. Spot gold fell as much as 4% to $4,111 an ounce, its lowest since August 5, with December COMEX gold down 3.44% and gold futures quoted at 4,154.25, off 3.86%. Silver was worse, down 5.57% to 61.19. Reuters attributed the move squarely to yields and rate expectations raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and added detail on positioning: CFTC data for the week to September 22 showed money managers' net longs at their lowest since late July, gold ETFs saw 1.6 tonnes of outflows last week against holdings of 4,249 tonnes, and Chinese local premiums over the benchmark fell to zero ahead of the October 1-7 holiday. StoneX's Rhona O'Connell pointed to central bank buying and Indian Diwali demand as offsets, while noting high prices and a weak monsoon limit jewellery buying. Barchart gave a partly different read on flows, saying gold ETF long holdings hit a 6.75-month high and that the PBOC added 650,000 ounces in August, its 22nd straight month of buying. CMC Markets' Michael Kramer wrote that gold broke support around $4,250, with the 20-day rolling correlation to the US 10-year real yield at -0.53 and RSI near 36. A BMO Capital Markets note carried by Kitco argues a higher long-term base is building even as prices struggle. A large cluster of the headline-only TradingView posts here are gold and silver charts, almost all bearish in tone.

Oil, Iran, and the dollar

Crude was the other input. WTI settled around 92.97 and Brent 98.27, with Barchart putting the intraday jump near 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, per a WSJ report flagged on X. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which is the mechanism connecting the Iran headline to the yield move and the metals selloff. The dollar index rose 0.25% to 100.955, helped both by the rate differential and, per Barchart, some liquidity demand as stocks fell. The September Dallas Fed manufacturing survey fell 1.8 points to 9.8, better than the 7.8 expected.

Cook on AI, oil and inflation

Fed Governor Lisa Cook, speaking at an AI conference in Oakland, said she expects continued inflation pressure in coming months from the AI buildout and from pass-through of higher oil prices and Middle East supply chain disruption, and that "the labor market appears to be well positioned to handle an increase in rates." She stopped short of endorsing further hikes, saying the number and size of any adjustments will depend on incoming data. She noted total inflation ran about 3.8% in the 12 months through August, roughly double the target, and that inflation has been above 2% for more than five years. Nick Timiraos highlighted her caveat that fighting sector-specific inflation with monetary policy "could be a mistake" since the tools are too blunt, while she still sees economy-wide pressure from AI-fuelled demand. Headline-only items in the same vein: Hammack warning that inflation expectations could deteriorate and separately saying the yield surge is not about lost inflation confidence, Bessent telling Kudlow he hopes Warsh looks more like mid-1990s Greenspan than the ECB hiking into the 2008 oil shock, and Hassett questioning why an "unusually partisan Fed" is raising rates at all.

The week's calendar

Investing.com's week-ahead lays out the schedule. Tuesday brings CB Consumer Confidence (90.1 forecast vs 89.4) and JOLTS openings (7.23M vs 7.27M), plus four Fed speakers in one day: Bowman, Barr, Williams and Waller. Wednesday is the heavy one, with Core PCE forecast at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y (from 3.3%), final GDP at 1.5%, ADP at 70K after 38K, and Chicago PMI expected back into expansion at 51.3 from 47.1. Thursday has ISM manufacturing at 55.0 with the prices subindex forecast at 72.0, and jobless claims at 199K. Friday's payrolls are forecast at 98K, down sharply from 162K, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings 0.3%. The piece frames PCE plus NFP as the binary event of the week. Worth noting alongside that, Friday's Michigan data in this list already showed sentiment at 48.1 from 51.7 and one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%, with the five-year at 3.4%. Citi has a headline-only note saying the October Fed decision hinges on this data.

Europe, Japan and the rest

Lagarde struck a dovish note, saying that since the last ECB meeting long-term rates have risen notably, which "will slow growth and reduce pass-through by more than projected in our September exercise." Markets price a 37% chance of a 25bp ECB hike on October 29. Separately she told European lawmakers the ECB will work on more responsive swap lines to make it easier for foreign central banks to borrow euros, part of a push to widen the euro's international role amid uncertainty over the dollar's future; the ECB has had nearly 30 applications for its euro repo facility. The 10-year Bund hit a 17-year high of 3.65%. EUR/USD fell 0.23%. In Japan, August corporate services prices rose 3.7% against 3.6% expected, the fastest in over two years, and the yen hit a one-week high after currency official Atsushi Mimura said Japan's PM and finance minister, along with the US, had sent a "very clear" message on yen depreciation, stoking talk of joint intervention. BOJ hike odds for October 30 sit at 41%. FOREX.com's USD/JPY note has 156.68 holding as support with 158.05 above. Carney, in a NYT interview excerpted by Timiraos, said Canadian core inflation is running at 2% against headline near 3%, that Canada borrows 110bp through the US, and defended the Bank of Canada's independence to act as it sees fit. Headline-only elsewhere: Ramsden saying UK rates may need to rise if inflation pressure builds, a Citi/YouGov survey showing UK inflation expectations up in September, and an RBA preview flagging a widely expected 25bp move.

Fed watchdog report

Separately, the Fed's Inspector General said a Division of International Finance staffer who retired in July 2024 was repeatedly flagged for removing confidential material, including copying FOMC files to unencrypted USB drives in 2021 and 2023 and emailing confidential files to a personal address. Some alerts came three days before a personal trip to a restricted country. The IG did not pursue a misconduct finding, saying records didn't clearly show what was taken and many alerts were false positives, but called the offboarding gaps a systemic issue needing immediate attention.

Note on the calendar items

A large number of items in this section are Nasdaq economic calendar entries whose pages returned no data beyond the figures already in the headline lines, so there is nothing behind them beyond the prints themselves.

Yields at multi-decade highs are the driver

The single backdrop fact this morning is the long end. The 10-year Treasury hit a fresh 19-year high at 5.2297% and was last quoted around 5.215%, up about 6 basis points, while the 30-year printed a fresh 22-year high at 5.5185% and sat near 5.511%. The 5-year was 5.045%, the 3-month 4.193%, and the 10-2 spread widened 4.15 to 31.32. The Fed has already taken policy to 3.75%–4.00%, and pricing for more is firming: FedWatch October hike odds were cited at 70.3% this morning against 64.2% at Friday's settle, and a Polymarket contract on a 25bp hike after the December meeting sits at 75%. The dollar index is holding around 100.87, up 0.17%.

Gold and silver sold off hard

Precious metals took the brunt. Spot gold fell around 3% to roughly $4,156, its lowest since August 5, with the session low near $4,140; gold futures were quoted at 4,181.85, down 3.22%. Multiple pieces attribute the move to the same combination: rising oil reviving inflation worries, a firm dollar heading for its strongest month since June, and elevated long-end yields making a non-yielding asset less attractive. Silver was worse, down 4.73% in futures to 61.735, and one note points out that once $63.55 broke, silver fell nearly 5% almost immediately. The headline flow tracks the slide through the day on Friday and into today, from gold holding $4,300 on resilient durable goods, to $4,254 after sentiment data, to below $4,200 now. Positioning had not yet capitulated as of the CFTC data: gold net longs were 225.9K, barely changed from 230.3K, silver 25.4K versus 25.3K.

Oil and the Iran standoff

The energy leg of this is geopolitical. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, per a WSJ report, with the paper's sources saying bombing could resume after the midterms. Brent futures are up 2.33% at 99.71 and WTI up 2.76% at 94.96, with separate pieces citing Brent trading above $106 and above $107. Baker Hughes total rigs rose to 599 from 595, oil rigs to 455 against a 453 consensus. Crude net longs edged up to 141.1K from 135.9K.

Citi on what could stop an October hike

Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst argues only one release realistically stands between the Fed and an October hike: September core CPI. His framing is that October is close to a replay of September, when a hotter August core CPI print of 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus pushed markets to price and the Fed to deliver 25bp. Citi looks for 85,000 payrolls Friday and unemployment ticking to 4.2% from 4.1%, and says explicitly that neither would move hike pricing; only a negative payroll print or 4.3% unemployment would lower the implied odds. On CPI, Citi sees scope for 0.2% or slower, since August's strength was in volatile components and cell phone service plans while shelter has slowed. A scheduled downward revision to core PCE is, in Hollenhorst's words, already expected and so unlikely to shift policy. He also notes some officials may prefer to wait, having penciled in only 50bp total for the year and wanting to see how the yield surge feeds through.

The data calendar this week

Today brings the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, previous 11.6, plus 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at prior stops of 4.015% and 4.155%. Barkin and Cook speak, with Bowman also on the calendar. Then Q3 closes on September 30 with ADP, PCE, final Q2 GDP and personal spending, ISM manufacturing on October 1, and payrolls October 2 with consensus around 100K and unemployment 4.2%. One technical note on SPX marks Friday's close at 7,743.41, with 7,641.70 as support below and a weekly close under 7,483.79 as the level that changes the picture. Worth flagging: the Nasdaq economic calendar items read in full contained no content beyond the figures already in their headlines, so the data points above are all they carry.

What Friday's US data actually said

Final Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 48.1, above the 47.8 preliminary but well below August's 51.7, with current conditions 50.9 and expectations 46.3. The inflation expectations detail is the part that matters given the Fed's reaction function: one-year expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, five-year to 3.4% from 3.3%. Durable goods orders were flat at 0.0% versus a -0.3% consensus, core orders 0.3% against 0.6% expected, and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft up 1.6% from 0.6%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow stands at 5.0%. So growth signals are holding up even as sentiment deteriorates, which is the tension Fed speakers are working through.

Fed and political commentary

Cleveland's Beth Hammack said the biggest risk is persistent inflation becoming embedded in public expectations, pointing to steady growth, a stable labour market and strong demand and capital spending; separately she said the bond yield surge is not about lost inflation confidence. Kansas City's Schmid raised whether the AI ecosystem is becoming too big to fail. On the political side, Bessent told Kudlow he hopes the Fed will keep an open mind and that Warsh looks more like Greenspan in the mid-1990s than the ECB hiking into the 2008 oil shock, arguing there is a private-sector demand shock being met with more supply. Hassett questioned why the Fed is hiking at all, calling it an unusually partisan Fed and saying the market is worried about unwise hiking. Nick Timiraos also notes the original administration theory, that showing the bond market seriousness on deficits would bring long rates down on its own, has not worked out.

Outside the US

The Bank of England's Dave Ramsden said that while policy remains restrictive, if upside pressures on the inflation outlook continue to build there could be a case for raising Bank Rate. He was in the 6-3 majority voting to hold this month, and the piece notes the BoE, unlike the ECB and Fed, has not hiked since the start of the Iran war because its stance was already restrictive. Japan's corporate services price index came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected and 3.6% prior, described elsewhere as a two-year high, which feeds the case for further BoJ tightening. Euro zone M3 rose 3.5%, private sector loans 3.1%, corporate loans slowed to 4.2% from 4.4%. Spanish GDP was 0.7%, in line. German GfK consumer climate fell to -30.6 against a -27.1 consensus. Lagarde, Elderson and Pereira are all due to speak. China industrial profits are the Asian data point to watch, with 17.6% year-to-date previously.

Positioning and equities

Friday closed higher despite the yield spike: S&P 500 up 0.51% to 7,743.41, Nasdaq up 0.48%, Dow up 0.93%, though the VIX rose 8.34% to 16.11. Futures this morning are softer, US 500 down 0.40% and US 30 down 0.53%. CFTC positioning through the reporting week shows specs pressing S&P 500 shorts to -133.2K from -100.5K while adding Nasdaq 100 longs to 56.1K from 33.7K. In FX, euro shorts nearly doubled to -52.3K from -27.0K, sterling shorts widened to -82.6K, Canadian dollar to -53.2K, and yen longs were cut to 72.0K from 120.4K. On the FTSE, a Trade Nation note has the index consolidating sideways with support at 10,660 and resistance at 10,800.

The retail chart flow

A large share of this section is TradingView chart commentary, overwhelmingly on gold, and it is near-unanimously bearish or looking for a corrective bounce to sell into rather than a reversal. The recurring levels are 4,140–4,155 as the immediate liquidity zone and 4,198–4,255 as the area sellers would need to lose. These are individual traders' setups, not research, and the ones carrying trade ideas state them as such.